The Iranian Threat
|Rachel Ehrenfeld||February 10th 2013|
|Iranian nuclear centrifuges|
While the U.S. declares more sanctions on Iran, the EU, which had ratified the UN sanctions resolution against Iran on June 9, 2010, has been steadily removing Iranian banks from its sanction list. The EU's recent removal of Bank Sederat, Bank Sina and Bank Mellat helps to bolster Iran's economy, facilitates European purchase of Iranian oil and gas and other trade with Iran, and eases Tehran's funding of those who advance its agenda.
American statements of the hardship caused to the Iranian economy seem to have little effect on the Revolutionary Guards. ECASB.COM reports that they are busy building the world's tallest double-curvature arc dam on the Bakhtiari River in southwestern Iran.
Last week, Pakistan announced a $250 million loan from Iran to help finance the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline "exporting 21.5 million cubic meters of Iranian natural gas per day to Pakistan." In addition, Iran will pay "$500 million to complete the Pakistani section of the project...the rest will be provided by the Pakistani government." Would that come from the $1.4 billion the U.S. is giving to Pakistan for economic development? Read more ..
Indonesia on Edge
|Vanda Felbab-Brown||February 7th 2013|
The Brookings Institution
Following a wave of violent confrontations and tit-for-tat killings, the leaders of five mass organizations-cum-urban gangs in Greater Jakarta – Pemuda Pancasila (PP), Pemuda Panca Marga (PPM), the Betawi Brotherhood Forum (FBR), the Betawi People’s Forum (Forkabi), and Badan Pembina Provinsi Keluarga Banten (BPPKB) -- agreed to a ceasefire in June 2012. The violence to be shut down had erupted in the late winter and early spring of 2012, escalating and taking on ethnic overtones in March 2012 when the leader of another gang John Refra, a.k.a. John Kei, was arrested on murder charges. Fronting as a debt-collecting business, Kei’s Key Youth Force (Amkei) was centered on Moluccan migrants in Jakarta and had been clashing with rival gangs from Flores. The June gang truce, facilitated by police negotiations and mediation, for a moment seemed to turn the violence off. The gang truce paralleled a ceasefire announced by two large gangs in El Salvador --an ocean away. Read more ..
Education on Edge
|Beth Akers||February 6th 2013|
The Brookings Institution
A great deal of attention has been paid to the issue of rising costs in higher education. A variety of explanations are in the public discourse, but the media often mentions luxurious campus amenities as a major culprit. Climbing walls, spending on athletic facilities and luxurious housing have all been offered as explanation for the rapid increases in tuition. Despite all of the discussion on this topic, a couple key points remain unclear. First, what do we know about trends in non-instruction spending on college campuses? Second, how should we think about amenities in higher education?
Thanks to the initiative led by the Delta Cost Project, data on spending are now available to help answer these questions. A report released in December by the American Institutes for Research explains that over the past decade the average share of spending on instruction across all institutions has declined. They also find that in 2010, the most recent year for which data is available, all types of institutions cut spending on activities that support academics. While the shift of resources away from instruction has not been dramatic, it does seem that spending patterns reflect changing priorities. However, the magnitudes identified in the report suggest that increases in spending account for a relatively small fraction of tuition inflation. Between the years 2000 and 2010 the average annual tuition for private bachelors degree programs increased by $8,290 (approximately 30 percent). During that same period spending per full-time student student on all core activities (including instructional and non-instructional) increased by only $2316(approximately 11 percent). Read more ..
Algeria on Edge
|Bruce Riedel||February 5th 2013|
The Brookings Institution
David Cameron’s visit to Algiers last week, the first ever by a British Prime Minister, underscores Algeria’s growing importance in the war against al-Qaeda. But it is an extraordinarily complex ally in the war. The generals who run Algeria, the Arab world’s largest remaining police state, were surprised and embarrassed by the al-Qaeda attack on the Amenas gas facility in January. Their worry now is that the attack will raise questions about their one strong competency, providing stability and fighting terror. They are the West’s ally but a difficult and very suspicious partner.
Cameron and his hosts agreed to develop a strategic partnership to fight terrorism, and especially al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, now that the French have driven it out of Mali’s cities. In practice, this will mean closer ties with Algeria’s Departement du Renseignement et de la Securite, DRS, one of the world’s most feared intelligence services. Read more ..
Israel on Edge
|Eli E. Hertz||February 4th 2013|
Myths and Facts
The language of Article 49 was crafted in the wake of World War II and the Nazi occupation – an occupation that led to a war of aggression in which Nazi Germany attacked its neighbors with impunity, committing a host of atrocities against civilian populations, including deportation and displacement of local populations in occupied Europe. Millions were sent to forced labor camps and those of particular ethnic origin, most notably the Jews, were sent to their deaths in the gas chambers. The drafters of Article 49 were concerned with preventing future genocide against humanity.
Critics and enemies of Israel, including members of the UN and organs such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have come to use the Geneva Convention as a weapon against Israel, even when statements by authoritative analysts, scholars and drafters of the document contradict everything said by those who distort history for politically motivated reasons. It is common knowledge that from its birth, Israel customarily follows international humanitarian law without being told or forced to do so by outside authorities.
The term "occupied territory," which appears in the Fourth Geneva Convention, originated as a result of the Nazi occupation of Europe. Though it has become common parlance to describe the West Bank and Gaza as "occupied territories," there is no legal basis for using this term in connection to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Professor Julius Stone, a leading authority on the Law of Nations, categorically rejected the use of the term "occupied territory" to describe the territories controlled by Israel on the following counts: Read more ..
|Rachel Ehrenfeld & Ken Jensen||February 4th 2013|
Economic Warfare Institute
The acceleration in Chinese hacking into U.S. government agencies, major financial institutions, businesses and media outlets seems to match China's growing investments in this country. Both began to intensify since the economic crisis of 2008.
The statements issued by The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, and the Washington Post, implied the hackers went only after the passwords and files of reporters who took part in investigations on the wealth accumulated by China's political elite and spying facilitated by Chinese communication devices used in the U.S. and elsewhere.
Apparently, to calm their subscribers, the papers' ridiculous message was, that "the hacking was not an attempt to "gain commercial advantage or to misappropriate customer information." However, the FBI, which, has been investigating the attacks on media outlets for more than a year considers the activity a national-security threat. Surely, the access to financial and commercial information stored in the papers' computers has eased China's growing investment acquisitions in the U.S. and elsewhere. Read more ..
|Rachel Ehrenfeld & Ken Jensen||February 4th 2013|
Economic Warfare Institute
If your offer is high enough, you could purchase U.S. technological secrets. Rest assured, the Obama Administration will not block the sale. Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel and Fox News revealed that “the U.S. government has approved the sale of bankrupt, stimulus-fund recipient A123 Systems, Inc., to China’s Wanxiang Group Corp., with a North American business based in Elgin, Ill.
Apparently Wanxiang bid was $5 million higher that that of the Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls. “The Chinese company created “a new independent trust to buy A123’s civilian unit. The civilian arm makes up the bulk of the company’s operations. The idea would then be for Wanxiang to buy the business from the trust.” Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Michael Knights||February 3rd 2013|
The Washington Institute
As a fragile postconflict state, Iraq can ill afford the chaos currently roiling in neighboring Syria. If President Bashar al-Assad's regime collapses, large segments of north-central and western Iraq could become deeply unstable, with local factions opening a de facto civil war against federal forces, whether temporarily or indefinitely. For the United States, keeping Iraq on an even keel would be a supreme test of diplomatic skill at a moment when attention would understandably be focused on Syria itself. But such a crisis could also open a window of opportunity to reestablish influence over Baghdad.
Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites perceive the Syrian conflict very differently. The majority Shiite population sees it as a frightening, negative development. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's administration is the first modern Arab government to be led by Shiites, and in their view, major Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey will not tolerate this state of affairs in the long term. Reflecting their historical sense of victimization, the newly dominant Iraqi Shiites see the Syria crisis as the beginning of a revanchist Sunni backlash, and they fear their hold on Baghdad may be the next domino to fall. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Soner Cagaptay||February 3rd 2013|
The Washington Institute
On January 21, members of the Turkish Youth Union (TGB), a far-left nationalist group, attacked German Patriot missile teams dispatched to help defend Turkey against threats from Syria. The incident served as a reminder of the unexpected ways in which the Syrian war could impact Turkey's stability. Ankara has become a direct player in the conflict through its support for armed and unarmed groups battling Bashar al-Assad's regime. Yet Turkey is also embroiled in the war in broader strategic terms, through its vulnerability to spillover along the 510-mile border with Syria. Washington should watch these spillover effects closely, as they risk straining Turkey's economy, accentuating its sectarian and political divisions, and compromising its overall stability. Read more ..
Obama's Second Term
|Michael Beckel||February 3rd 2013|
Center for Public Integrity
Prominent super PACs are already preparing for their next act — the 2014 midterm elections — with Democratic-aligned groups leading the way.
Of the five super PACs with the most money in the bank through the end of 2012, all support Democrats, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis of campaign finance reports released Thursday.
The United Auto Workers’ super PAC, launched last September, reported the most money in the bank at $8.9 million. The group spent almost $2.7 million ahead of Election Day.
Priorities USA Action, the main super PAC that backed the re-election of President Barack Obama, ranks second, ending the year with $3.7 million in the bank after spending $65 million on ads that pounded Obama’s GOP rival, Mitt Romney.
Rounding out the top five: the super PAC of the Service Employees International Union, which reported $3.2 million on hand; Fair Share Action, which reported $1.8 million; and American Bridge 21st Century, a Democratic-aligned super PAC that specializes in opposition research, which reported $1.3 million. Read more ..
Israel's New Northern War
|Saul Roth||February 2nd 2013|
World Jewish Daily
Israel has adopted new defense procedures in response to regional instability, a Times of Israel analyst wrote on Thursday. Wednesday's dawn attack on what appears to have been a shipment of Syrian missiles is the first result of this new policy.
Analyst Mitch Ginsburg refers to this change in policy as "new red lines." Previously, Israel's "red lines," - events that would automatically trigger military action - have concentrated only on unconventional weapons.
Now, however, not only nuclear or chemical weapons are included, but also what Ginsburg calls "strategic weapons." This is mostly the result of the Syrian regime's instability and the possible acquisition of these weapons by the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah. Read more ..
Israel on Edge
|Evelyn Gordon||February 1st 2013|
It was an election whose results stunned pundits both in Israel and abroad, a "wide and deep repudiation" of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as some hastened to claim. And elections, as we know, have consequences. So are major changes expected in Israel's foreign and defense policy? In a word, no.
First, though both his own party and the larger bloc he heads lost seats to parties on their left, Netanyahu will remain prime minister. And his views haven't changed.
Second, he didn't just win on a technicality. Though voters arguably did repudiate his domestic policies, they actually backed his foreign and defense policies overwhelmingly.
A striking pre-election poll commissioned by the anti-Netanyahu daily Haaretz asked voters which party leader they most trusted to handle various issues. On diplomatic negotiations, an area where many non-Israelis deem him an unmitigated failure, Netanyahu beat his rivals by a margin of more than 2 to 1. On security, his margin of preference was more than 4 to 1 - a tribute to the last four remarkably peaceful years despite the chaos engulfing Israel's northern and southern neighbors. Read more ..
The Nuclear Edge
|George Friedman||January 31st 2013|
North Korea's state-run media reported Sunday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the country's top security officials to take "substantial and high-profile important state measures," which has been widely interpreted to mean that North Korea is planning its third nuclear test. Kim said the orders were retaliation for the U.S.-led push to tighten U.N. sanctions on Pyongyang following North Korea's missile test in October. A few days before Kim's statement emerged, the North Koreans said future tests would target the United States, which North Korea regards as its key adversary along with Washington's tool, South Korea.
North Korea has been using the threat of tests and the tests themselves as weapons against its neighbors and the United States for years. On the surface, threatening to test weapons does not appear particularly sensible. If the test fails, you look weak. If it succeeds, you look dangerous without actually having a deliverable weapon. And the closer you come to having a weapon, the more likely someone is to attack you so you don't succeed in actually getting one. Developing a weapon in absolute secret would seem to make more sense. When the weapon is ready, you display it, and you have something solid to threaten enemies with. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Anna Borshchevskaya||January 31st 2013|
On January 20, the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry announced that it will evacuate approximately one hundred Russian citizens from Syria, mostly women and children. However, the ministry downplayed the importance of the evacuation, with those leaving representing a mere fraction of the many thousands of Russian citizens residing in Syria. Indeed, the hopes that President Vladimir Putin will finally budge on his support for the Syrian regime are unwarranted. Russia is unlikely to change its position given that its interests in Syria are not only military and strategic, but also commercial and cultural.
Moscow has counted an Assad-led Syria as its closest ally in the Arab world for more than forty years. During the Cold War, many Russians moved to Syria and, in turn, many Syrian elites studied at top Russian schools such as Moscow State University and the Peoples’ Friendship University. Intermarriage occurred in both countries. The Soviet leadership, for its part, sought to groom top students from allied countries whom it could later rely on for support. Because Syria was key to the Soviet position in the Middle East, Syrians were referred to as “allies” and “friends” in public broadcasts and statements. Read more ..
|Matthew M. Chingos||January 30th 2013|
Budget cuts have caused increases in class size in states across the nation in recent years. Between 2009 and 2010, the pupil-teacher ratio in the U.S. increased by more than half a student for the first time since the Great Depression. The nationwide increase is quite small, but some states have experienced larger changes than others. A notable outlier is California, where the pupil-teacher ratio increased by more than 4 students between 2009 and 2010, an increase of more than 20 percent.
Times of fiscal austerity renew debates about the best way to spend limited educational resources. Class size is at the center of these debates because the size of the classes in which students are educated is one of the most important drivers of educational costs. Smaller classes mean that more teachers must be hired and more classrooms built. Conversely, allowing class sizes to increase can be a way to absorb budget cuts without cutting other programs such as athletics and the arts. Read more ..
The Arab Winter of Rage
|Rachel Ehrenfeld and Ken Jensen||January 29th 2013|
The U.S. appears to acknowledge the economic and political mess that the last two years have brought to the Arab world and Africa generally in high-flown rhetoric devoid of reference to American interests. But things appear to be getting much worse quickly. We have been watching it accelerating in Libya and Syria, the Maghreb and Sahel, and now in Arab-Spring “poster-child” Egypt.
Charles Holmes, writing for Foreign Policy, calls what’s going on “a confrontation with modernity.” Arab regimes have been repressing political opposition for a very long time, and neither Arab nationalism nor Arab socialism or Baathism has yielded an antidote to the region’s economic primitivism and potential for violence created by economic failure. Holmes likes to blame former Egyptian president, Gamal Abdel Nasser (1956-1970), and sees Morsi’s regime as the end of the line for all things Nasserite. He may be right in a way, but Morsi’s imposition of Shari’a, is unlikely to be challenged simply for being “unmodern.” Read more ..
The Edge of Immigration
|Mike Lillis ||January 29th 2013|
Despite the momentum growing behind comprehensive immigration reform, advocates face high hurdles in their fight for changes on an issue that has been a political third rail on Capitol Hill for more than a decade.
While President Obama and congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle are optimistic they can enact the reforms that have eluded Washington policymakers for years, the immediate push-back from some conservatives is a clear signal that the debate will be fierce and no changes will come easy – if at all. To be sure, November's elections – which saw Hispanic voters come out in heavy favor of Obama and the Democrats – have made the political environment much more conducive to reform than the last time Congress took up a comprehensive immigration package roughly eight years ago. Read more ..
|Darrell M. West||January 28th 2013|
The announcement that six key Democratic and Republican Senators have reached agreement on a sweeping overhaul of U.S. immigration policy is the latest sign of how dramatically the landscape has shifted. With President Obama getting 72 percent of the Latino vote in the 2012 election and Hispanics becoming a larger percentage of the electorate in crucial swing states, it is time for legislators to step up and address this issue. For the first time in many years, both parties have clear incentives to take meaningful action.
But immigration reform is not just a question of shifting political dynamics. A paradox of the contemporary situation is that in a time of high unemployment, a number of fields report a shortage of American workers and problems filling key positions. For example, even as the country as a whole experiences nearly 8 percent unemployment, high-tech fields, advanced manufacturing, and medical specialties have unemployment rates as low as 3, 4, or 5 percent. And on the labor-intensive side of the economy, agricultural companies report difficulty finding workers to pick vegetables and fruits, and hotels and restaurants indicate they have problems filling key positions. Read more ..
The Edge of Terrorism
|Dore Gold||January 27th 2013|
Not long after the French offensive against African jihadists in Mali got underway, a leader of one of the offshoots of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) declared that his organization would "strike at the heart of France." AQIM attacked French embassies and most recently a gas facility in Algeria, where it took hostages. But was it ready to move its war against the West to the territories of the European states as well and thus pose a real threat to their security?
The fact is that for some time European leaders have been looking at the growth of al-Qaida in North Africa with real concern. After Islamist extremists took control of northern Mali last year, converting it into a terrorist sanctuary, EU heads of state met in Oct. 2012, and issued a statement characterizing the crisis in Mali as "an immediate threat" to Europe itself. French President Francois Hollande said he believed that AQIM was planning to use Mali as a launching pad for an attack on French soil. This month German Chancellor Angela Merkel added her voice to this view of the crisis in Mali, saying that "terrorism in Mali, or in the north of Mali, is a threat not just to Africa but also to Europe." Read more ..
The Arab Winter of Rage
|Rachel Ehrenfeld||January 27th 2013|
Two years after the Arab Spring erupted violently in Tunisia and Egypt, both countries' economy is much worse off than it was before. The saplings of hope for liberalization and reform have been violently wrenched.
In Tunisia, secular opposition parties complain that instead of the promised economic reforms, the ruling Islamist Ennahadha party is "bent on setting up a theocracy." As a result, Tunisia now faces an 18 percent national unemployment rate and has been downgraded by Fitch due to "slow transition to a free economy" and unsustainable twin deficits. In addition, Standard & Poor's has downgraded the country to "junk." As if growing economic hardship was not enough, "Courts [are] accused of targeting opponents of the dominant political party, Ennahadha," reports al Jazeera. According to Amnesty International free speech has been curtailed and critics of the regime are facing "public morals" violation charges. And if you expect the new Tunisian Constitution to better protect human rights, don't hold your breath. Human Rights Watch protested last week that the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) second draft, "threaten human rights." Read more ..
India and Pakistan
|Lisa Curtis||January 25th 2013|
Tensions between India and Pakistan are heating up along the Line of Control (LoC) that divides Kashmir. A series of border incidents in early January left three Pakistani and two Indian soldiers dead. One of the Indian soldiers was beheaded and another severely mutilated, provoking Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to say that India’s ties with Pakistan would not be “business as usual” until those responsible for the mutilation of the bodies were punished.
While the U.S. needs to urge restraint on both sides to prevent escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors, the onus is on Pakistan to demonstrate that it is cracking down on militants on its side of the border. The U.S. should pay close attention to developments along the Indo–Pakistani border in order to help prevent a breakout of hostilities, but it should resist any temptation to try to directly mediate between the historical foes. Read more ..
|Pat Madgal||January 25th 2013|
Weakened revenue and an increase in store closures by Barnes & Noble Inc. calls the bookseller’s stability into question, say leading business analysts. Agha Nawazish Ali Khan, a securities analyst for SNL Financial, a San Francisco financial services firm, flags Barnes & Noble’s disappointing holiday sales in a report highlighting its role as an important tenant for some of the country’s top mall operators. The retailer’s top landlords are Simon Property Group (25 stores), DDR Corp. (18 stores), CBL & Associates properties (16 stores) and General Growth Properties Inc. (14 stores, including Clackamas Town Center).
Barnes & Noble operates 689 bookstores and its bn.com e-commerce site. On Jan. 2, it reported comparable store sales fell 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter. Read more ..
America's Darkest Edge
|Jonathan Easley||January 24th 2013|
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) will introduce a bill banning assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition clips on Thursday, according to reports.
Feinstein’s bill will expand the criteria for classifying military-style assault weapons from a 1994 law, which lapsed a decade later. Her new measure will ban the sale of about 150 types of firearms, including some rifles and handguns, as well as the sale of high-capacity magazines, according to USA Today. The bill will exempt firearms used for hunting and will grandfather in guns and magazines owned before the law’s potential enactment. However, the grandfathered weapons will be logged in a national registry.
The measure is expected to face a tough fight in the Senate, with many GOP lawmakers and the nation’s gun lobby vowing to oppose any new restrictions on gun ownership. Read more ..
|Aryeh Savir||January 23rd 2013|
Tazpit News Agency
The big surprise of Israel's elections is the rise of Yair Lapid's "Yesh Atid" (There is a future) party, which received 19 seats in the upcoming 19th Knesset. The second biggest party after the Likud, it is presumed that Lapid will join Netanyahu's next government as a senior partner. As a large party with 19 mandates "Yesh Atid" will be very influential on the government's policy in all aspects, including the possibility of the resuming of the now dead peace process and the attempts to come to an agreement with the Palestinians. What are Lapid's principles regarding a possible process?
The party's platform, formulated by Ofer Shelach, a former journalist and number 6 on the list, states that Israel will strive to return to the negotiations table with the Palestinians with the principle of "two states for two nations" serving as the basis of the process. Yesh Atid perceives a possible peace process as a response to an ensemble of threats looming over the State of Israel and the only way to effectively minimize these threats in the long term.
What will be with the communities of Judea and Samaria? Yair Lapid chose to launch his campaign in Ariel, which can be telling about his future intentions regarding Judea and Samaria. Yesh Atid's platform states that within the framework of the negations the large blocks, i.e. Ariel, Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion will remain within the agreed upon boundaries of the State of Israel. During peace negations no new communities will be established, but until the signing of an agreement the natural growth of the existing communities will be taken into consideration. The platform further states the Israel's future borders will be decided on the basis of Israel's security needs, as well as the reality created since 1967, "Both sides will acknowledge that it is a mutual interest that the settlement blocks remain in Israel's hands." Read more ..
Israel on Edge
|Yaakov Lappin||January 22nd 2013|
The past two months have seen a sharp rise in the number of violent disturbances in the West Bank. Flashpoints have included Hebron, and multiple locations in the northern West Bank. The upsurge has included fire-bomb attacks, rock throwing at Israeli vehicles and IDF positions, and sporadic shootings.
The Shin Bet, Israel's domestic security agency, recently released data that points to an unmistakable rise in the number of violent incidents. In December, there were 69 fire-bombings in the West Bank, and 30 in Jerusalem. Three members of the Israeli security forces were injured - two were stabbed in the West Bank, and one was hit by a car Jerusalem in a deliberate attempt to run him over. Additionally, there were six improvised explosive device attacks, and three hand grenades thrown. Palestinian terrorists fired on Israeli targets twice. Read more ..
Obama's Second Term
|Alexander Bolton||January 22nd 2013|
The mood on Capitol Hill on Monday was strikingly different from when President Obama was first sworn into office four years ago. Republican lawmakers said Monday that they feel less optimistic about President Obama’s second term than they did at the start of his first, a consequence of the escalating partisanship of the past four years. An influential Democrat, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.) expressed doubt that Obama’s second term would leave behind the partisan stalemate that marked much of his first.
“The proof is always in the pudding. The words are the first part. In the next month or so we’ll find out whether the climate has changed. I would hope it has, because I think the American people look at a stagnant Congress and say, ‘A pox on both their houses.’ They don’t really differentiate. And we’re here to do the people’s business and I think we have to do it, debate it, take action on it, so hopefully that will happen,” Feinstein said. Read more ..
Mali on Edge
|J. Millard Burr||January 22nd 2013|
The unfolding events in Mali, where a nation is threatened by an insurgency impelled by outsiders, is reminiscent of events that occurred in neighboring Chad thirty years ago. Today, it is a local insurgency supported by Al Qaeda affiliates that is active in Mali. Thirty years ago it was an insurgency supported by Libya’s Muamar Qaddafi and his so-called "Foreign Legion" that threatened the government of Chad. In both cases insurgencies posed a real danger to the security of Africa’s Sahel region at large. While the United States has, at French request, provided some transport aircraft to support French military activity in Mali, it has indicated that it will do little more. Ironically, in 1982 it was the United States that urged the reluctant French to get involved in an insurgency in Chad.
In 1982 Libyan backed troops moved into the Bourkou-Ennedi-Tibesti (BET) region of northern Chad. When it seemed that Chad's troops would be unable to reverse the invasion of the well-armed troops, President Habre visited the United States and virtually begged for military assistance. Read more ..
Europe on Edge
|Adriano Bosoni||January 22nd 2013|
British Prime Minister David Cameron will deliver a speech in London on Jan. 23, during which he will discuss the future of the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union. Excerpts leaked to the media suggest that harsh EU criticism will figure prominently in the speech, a suggestion in keeping with Cameron's recent statements about the bloc. But more important, the excerpts signal an unprecedented policy departure: renegotiating the United Kingdom's role in the European Union. London has negotiated exemptions from some EU policies in the past, even gaining some concessions from Brussels in the process; this time, it is trying to become less integrated with the bloc altogether.
Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum after 2015 on the United Kingdom's role in Europe. He has also said he would reclaim powers London surrendered to the European Union. While they no doubt reflect similar anxieties across the Continent, such statements are anathema to the European project, and by making them, Cameron could be setting a precedent that could further undermine the European Union. Read more ..
The Race for Batteries
|Julien Happich||January 21st 2013|
Potential cost savings and more demanding electrical loads are pushing airliners like the Boeing 787 towards lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. However, according to Lux Research, the type of Li-ion battery chemistry must be carefully chosen and well-managed. Failure to do so may result in serious safety issues. On January 7, a 787's Li-ion battery caught fire while the airplane was parked. Then, on January 16, another suspected 787 Li-ion fire forced an emergency landing. The Li-ion batteries in question are supplied by Japanese battery manufacturer GS Yuasa. Lux Research analyzed the Boeing 787 battery specifications and found the following:
1) Boeing did not choose the safest battery type. The 787's batteries use a material known as lithium cobalt oxide (LCO), which imparts excellent energy density. However, there are known LCO safety concerns, most notably that the material does not resist overheating well. Once started, Li-ion fires typically generate oxygen and are very difficult to extinguish: The first 787 battery blaze took 40 minutes to snuff out, injured one firefighter, and damaged the airplane's equipment bay. Read more ..
Israel on Edge
|Zack Pontz||January 20th 2013|
A member of the Executive Committee of the PLO, Dr. Ahmed Majdalani, told Al-Quds newspaper that he expects Hamas and Islamic Jihad to join with the PLO after National Council elections later this month, though the government will still headed by President Mahmoud Abbas. The PA is subsidiary to the PLO, whose members are not elected by the people.
As Elder of Ziyon notes: “This means that terror groups who urge the ethnic cleansing of Jews in the Middle East will be accepted as part of the international community at the UN. (The UN does not distinguish between the PLO and the ‘State of Palestine.’).”
Majdalani also said that negotiations between Fatah and Hamas in Cairo are resulting in a mechanism for new elections not only in the territories but also for Palestinian Arabs who live abroad. Read more ..
The Battle for Mali
|Roger Kaplan||January 19th 2013|
The American Spectator
Read more ..
Information regarding the hostage seizure at In Amenas, located to the far south east of Algeria near the Libyan border, remained sketchy as this column was filed last night, scarcely more clear than when I filed an early account, now erroneous on some details, in the Weekly Standard two days ago.
Algerian security forces reportedly surrounded the installation, responsible for some 10 percent of Algeria’s oil revenues, attacked the kidnappers after shooting cannon at them from helicopters, and sent commandos in to finish the job. As many as 150 hostages were reported to have been taken, but most of them were either released early or managed to escape from their captors, some of whom are still holed up in a sector of the site. How many, if any, hostages they are still holding cannot be verified, but reportedly about 20 hostages remained when the Algerian commandos first came in, including six Americans, and at least two — no Yanks — were killed, either in the crossfire or by the terrorists, members of a AQIM katiba (company) called Al-Mouthalimin led by the legendary emir and cigarette smuggler Moktar Belmoktar, known as “One-Eye.” One of our “mooj” warriors when the Soviets were dying on Afghanistan’s plains and a veteran leader of the feared Algerian jihad organization GIA, Moktar himself did not take part in the raid.
Obama's Second Term
|Robert Satloff||January 18th 2013|
Let’s stipulate that Chuck Hagel may make an exemplary defense secretary. That possibility doesn’t alter the fact that his nomination by President Obama almost certainly raises doubts among allies and adversaries alike that Obama may not be nearly so committed to using all means necessary to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear weapon as he pledged during his reelection campaign. If the White House does not take steps soon to correct that impression, the chances for a negotiated resolution of the Iran nuclear crisis will fall nearly to zero and the likelihood of Israeli military action will rise dramatically.
The Hagel nomination comes at a critical moment. Some experts believe that Iran may soon amass enough enriched uranium to give it “breakout capacity” — allowing it to quickly produce a nuclear weapon at a time of its choosing. Meanwhile, there are signs that the Obama administration’s strategy of tough international sanctions, backed by the threat of force, may compel Tehran to negotiate a deal that would forestall a confrontation. Read more ..
The Corporate Edge
|Terry Goodrich||January 17th 2013|
Public relations professionals who have provided ethics counsel to senior management are at least as fervent about serving the public interest -- sometimes even more so -- as they are about their duty to their organizations, according to a Baylor University researcher.
A new study of 30 senior public relations professionals, most of whom had served as an "organizational conscience," showed the individuals viewed themselves as an "independent voice" in the organization and not "mired by its perspective or politics," said study author Marlene S. Neill, Ph.D., a lecturer in the department of journalism, public relations and new media in Baylor's College of Arts & Sciences.
Researchers did in-depth interviews with senior public relations professionals in the United States and Australia, with an average of 27 years of experience. All but three had served as the chief public relations officers in their organizations, which included corporations, nonprofit organizations and government entities; and two of those also provided counsel in their roles in PR agencies for their clients as external counselors. Read more ..
The Edge of Defense
|George Friedman||January 16th 2013|
Last week, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that the United States would transfer the primary responsibility for combat operations in Afghanistan to the Afghan military in the coming months, a major step toward the withdrawal of U.S. forces. Also last week, France began an intervention in Mali designed to block jihadists from taking control of the country and creating a base of operations in France's former African colonies.
The two events are linked in a way that transcends the issue of Islamist insurgency and points to a larger geopolitical shift. The United States is not just drawing down its combat commitments; it is moving away from the view that it has the primary responsibility for trying to manage the world on behalf of itself, the Europeans and its other allies. Instead, that burden is shifting to those who have immediate interests involved.
It is interesting to recall how the United States involved itself in Afghanistan. After 9/11, the United States was in shock and lacked clear intelligence on al Qaeda. It did not know what additional capabilities al Qaeda had or what the group's intentions were. Lacking intelligence, a political leader has the obligation to act on worst-case scenarios after the enemy has demonstrated hostile intentions and capabilities. The possible scenarios ranged from additional sleeper cells operating and awaiting orders in the United States to al Qaeda having obtained nuclear weapons to destroy cities. When you don't know, it is both prudent and psychologically inevitable to plan for the worst. Read more ..
The Media on Edge
|Reity O'Brien||January 16th 2013|
Center for Public Integrity
The Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision unleashed nearly $1 billion in new political spending in the 2012 election, with media outlets and a small number of political consulting firms raking in the bulk of the proceeds.
Spending records released by the Federal Election Commission show that throughout the 2012 election, corporations, unions and individuals that could take advantage of the high court’s ruling were responsible for about $933 million of the estimated $6 billion spent during the contest.
Nearly two-thirds of the new money — about $611 million — went to 10 political consulting firms, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis. All but one of the top 10 recipients bought advertising in various media markets on behalf of super PACs and nonprofits. Eighty-nine percent of the expenditures made to the top 10 went to spots attacking candidates, the data show. Read more ..
|Diane Katz||January 15th 2013|
The Dodd–Frank financial regulation statute requires nearly 400 rulemakings. As of January 2, some 60 percent of the rulemaking deadlines were missed, and a full third of the required regulations have not been proposed. The delays may defer some compliance expenses. However, regulatory uncertainty also imposes costs on businesses as well as consumers, as the saga of the “remittance” rules illustrates.
The term remittance refers to the tens of billions of dollars transferred electronically each year from U.S. residents to relatives and friends abroad. These remittances totaled nearly $52 billion in 2011—the largest such outflow worldwide. The majority of U.S. transfers are routed to Mexico. These cash infusions constitute a major source of income in many developing countries. Indeed, remittances to poor nations total three times the amount of official development assistance.
As transfers have grown, so, too, have remittance services, which are now available from banks and credit unions; wire services such as Western Union and Money Gram; big box retailers such as Wal-Mart; and “digital wallets” such as PayPal. They may be conducted in person, by telephone, or online. Read more ..
America's Darkest Edge
|Susan Ferriss ||January 14th 2013|
Center for Public Integrity
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“Placing more police in schools has significant and harmful unintended consequences for young people that must be considered before agreeing to any proposal that would increase the presence of law enforcement in schools,”says an issue brief released Friday by the Advancement Project, Dignity in Schools and other organizations.
The Advancement Project, founded in 1999, has offices in Washington D.C. and California, and has worked with school districts and states to adopt alternatives to school suspensions and expulsions. Dignity in Schools is also devoted to working with school districts, advocating fewer school suspensions and less involvement of law enforcement in school discipline. The groups called on the White House and Congress, before they act, to consider how the school-discipline climate changed after more police were introduced to schools in response to the Columbine school shootings nearly 15 years ago in Colorado.
The Areab Winter
|Jacques Neriah||January 13th 2013|
During a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and several American senators, Rabin was asked how he could envisage signing a peace agreement with Arab regimes that did not profess democracy, but rather acted as oppressors of their own people. Rabin responded: “If we have to wait till democracy prevails in the Arab countries, then Israel will have to wait for a hundred years at least.”
Since its very first days, Israel has been surrounded by authoritarian regimes where there is no freedom of speech, no personal freedom, or freedom of any kind. The citizens of the surrounding countries live in a world where many things are forbidden, where they must guess what is acceptable and suitable in order to survive. Instead of speaking their mind, they let their rulers hear what they want to hear and kept the truth to themselves, deep inside. Read more ..
|Pat Madjal||January 12th 2013|
The downfall of once proud Barnes & Noble is now being broadly predicted by many media observers and book industry observers. Blunt terms are being used as in Business Insider's headline: "How Greed Led To The Downfall Of Barnes & Noble." The article wasted no time in outlining the crisis stating, "Barnes & Noble has survived, so far. But it's struggling. Stores are closing all over the country and the bookseller's holiday sales numbers were disastrous. Dennis Johnson, founder of MobyLives and co-founder of Melville House, has written up an interesting perspective on the fall of Barnes & Noble. And the saddest part is that it didn't begin with consumers going online for e-books. It all began with greed."
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Quoting Johnson, Business Insider goes on to say, "The demise of B&N has nothing to do with what its customers actually wanted, what’s best for mother literature or free speech, or anything other than made-up trends covering for killer capitalism. In short, B&N’s scorched earth policy of the 1990s has ultimately left us with, well, scorched earth.
The Battle for Syria
|Lisa Schlein and Edward Yeranian ||January 12th 2013|
International envoy Lakhdar Brahimi says talks with senior U.S. and Russian officials in Geneva ended Friday without a breakthrough about how to end the civil war in Syria. Brahimi held closed-door talks Friday at United Nations' European headquarters in Switzerland with Russian Deputy Foreign Ministry Mikhail Bogdanov and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns. The discussions focused on the implementation of a plan for ending the war, which was proposed by the Action Group for Syria in June.
The plan calls for an immediate cease-fire and for the establishment of a transitional government that could include officials serving under President Bashar al-Assad and opposition groups. Afterwards, Brahimi told reporters all sides underscored the need for a political solution to the crisis. But he acknowledged that resolving the crisis in the near future is not likely. Read more ..
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