Islam On Edge
|Yaakov Lappin||October 31st 2012|
Recent comments by the head of the Muslim Brotherhood [MB], the winner of the recent elections in Egypt, and others, provide yet another jolting reminder of the ruling party's plans for the Middle East.
With the presidency under its control, members of the MB apparently believe they must oversee a comprehensive process of Islamization of the Egyptian state and society, before they can turn their sights on their final goal, the creation of a pan-Islamic super-state that will encompass the region, and then wage war on Israel.
In an October 19 Egyptian Channel One television broadcast, made available by the invaluable MEMRI, Egypt's President can be seen deep in prayer. The prayer session included a sermon by Futouh Abd Al-Nabi Mansour, a cleric in charge of religious endowment in the Matrouh governorate of northwest Egypt. Mansour called out to the worshipers: "O Allah, destroy the Jews and their supporters." [Note: The call takes on anti-Semitic tones rather than hiding behind the usual code word of "Zionists." – the Editor]. The call to destroy the Jews did not disturb Morsi's prayers. (See "Egyptian President Morsi Joins Preacher in Prayer for Dispersal of the Jews," Middle East Media Research Institute, Video Clip No. 3614, October 19, 2012) Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|George Friedman||October 30th 2012|
The U.S. presidential election will be held a week from today, and if the polls are correct, the outcome will be extraordinarily close. Many say that the country has never been as deeply divided. In discussing the debates last week, I noted how this year's campaign is far from the most bitter and vitriolic. It might therefore be useful also to consider that while the electorate at the moment appears evenly and deeply divided, unlike what many say, that does not reveal deep divisions in our society -- unless our society has always been deeply divided.
Since 1820, the last year an uncontested election was held, most presidential elections have been extremely close. Lyndon B. Johnson received the largest percentage of votes any president has ever had in 1964, taking 61.5 percent of the vote. Three other presidents broke the 60 percent mark: Warren G. Harding in 1920, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 and Richard Nixon in 1972. Read more ..
Jordan on Edge
|Mudar Zahran||October 29th 2012|
It might be helpful now to start wondering what sort of ideas Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood, and its leader, Controller General Sheikh Hamam Sai'd, will advance if they seize power in Jordan -- possibly with the blessing and encouragement of the United States.
Sheikh Sai'd, of Palestinian origin, was elected to the leadership if Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood in 2008 by its hardline faction. They support a partnership with Hamas and the overthrow of Middle Eastern leaders who side with the United States. The prominent Jordanian journalist, Osama Al-Rantisi, published an article on July 14, 2011, in the Jordanian daily newspaper, Al-ghad, in which he alleged that Sai'd had held a meeting in Turkey with "recently-retired officers from the CIA and the internal counter-intelligence and security agency, the MI5." Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Seth Cropsey||October 29th 2012|
As he showed in the final presidential debate, President Obama's understanding of the U.S. Navy—or for that matter, any navy—is suboptimal. His explanation about Navy carriers "where planes land on them," and "ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines," left out the largest single group of naval combatants: surface ships. The omission is important because of surface ships' ability to defend against ballistic missiles and their pivotal role in protecting carriers and submarines. Surface ships also carry the weight of visiting foreign ports, showing the flag, and establishing and maintaining cooperative relationships with other navies around the world. These tasks have in common the goal of reassuring allies, making new friends, and ultimately preserving an international order favorable to the self-governance and classically liberal principles for which the U.S. stands. The same tasks are all conducted during peace and deliberately aimed at preserving it. Read more ..
The Iranian Threat
|Dore Gold||October 29th 2012|
In one of the strangest articles on the relations between the U.S. and Iran, the New York Times reported on October 20 that Washington and Tehran had reached an agreement to hold one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. The sources that provided the story, according to the newspaper, were “Obama administration officials.” They added that Iran only insisted that the proposed negotiations be held after the U.S. elections.
Yet in the sixth paragraph of the very same article in which Obama administration officials disclose the U.S.-Iranian agreement, the White House issued a firm denial that any final agreement had been reached. National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor released a statement saying: “It’s not true that the United States and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks or any meeting after the American elections.” Read more ..
The Edge of Crime
|Stewart M. Patrick and Isabella Bennett||October 28th 2012|
Council on Foreign Relations
President Obama and Governor Romney may have been arguing over the strength of sanctions on Iran, but there is another set of sanctions that the Obama administration has enacted on a global threat which would likely win Romney’s approval: sanctions against international criminal groups.
In July 2011, the White House issued an executive order sanctioning four transnational organized crime groups: the Brothers’ Circle (a Eurasian group spanning the former Soviet Union, Middle East, Africa, and Latin America); the Camorra (an Italian criminal group that operates international counterfeiting rings); the Yakuza (a Japanese criminal group with affiliates in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere that claims as many as eighty thousand members and facilitates sexual slavery and white collar crime); and Los Zetas (a Mexican criminal organization that is blamed for tens of thousands of deaths and widespread drug trafficking throughout the Americas). Read more ..
South Korea on Edge
|Scott A. Snyder||October 28th 2012|
Council on Foreign Relations
The agenda for the annual U.S.-ROK Security Consultative Meeting to be held this week in Washington between South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin and his U.S. counterpart, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, will inevitably focus on how to keep the Korean peninsula stable against potential North Korean provocations. However, with South Korea’s decision to contribute resources to a variety of international peacekeeping and stabilization missions, U.S.-ROK security cooperation has gone global.
My new CFR ebook, with chapters by Scott Bruce, John Hemmings, Balbina Hwang, and Terrence Roehrig, describes the expanding scope and variety of Korean contributions to international stability, reflecting an agenda that extends well beyond the Korean peninsula alone. The ebook analyzes the significance of a variety of South Korean operations, including South Korea’s contribution of peacekeepers in Haiti and Lebanon, Korean participation in ongoing antipiracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden, the contribution of a Korean Provincial Reconstruction Team to multinational stabilization operations in Afghanistan, and South Korea’s membership in the Proliferation Security Intiative (PSI). South Korea has grown into each of these new areas of security collaboration with the United States within the past five years, and is well-positioned to continue as a “middle power” partner in multilateral security operations in the future. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Brendan Sasso||October 28th 2012|
Swing state residents may be growing weary of the barrage of political ads, but this election season has been a boon to local TV stations. President Obama, Mitt Romney, the two parties and the 10 largest independent groups have spent more than $610 million on presidential TV ads so far this year, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, which obtained data from ad tracking firm Kantar Media/CMAG. More than 915,000 presidential ads have aired on broadcast and cable television since June 1. That’s a 44.5 percent increase from the same period in 2008, and a 43.7 percent increase from 2004.
Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, said the ad buys this year are concentrated in the handful of swing states that will likely decide the election.
Four years ago, Obama had the luxury of spending money in conservatives states like Missouri, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota, but this year, locked in a tight race with Mitt Romney, he has concentrated his funds only in areas where he has a strong chance of winning. Read more ..
Israel and the Sudan
|Terrence Sterling||October 27th 2012|
from Hayom and agencies
Read more ..
Foreign intelligence sources said Israel carried out an unmanned drone raid on a convoy south of Khartoum last month that destroyed 200 tons of munitions, including rockets, destined for the Gaza Strip.
Tuesday's blowing up of a Sudanese munitions factory in Khartoum was different from previous incidents, in that a state asset was hit. In a further suggestion of escalation by Israel, witnesses said the sortie was carried out by piloted fighter jets.
Amos Gilad, a senior Israeli defense official, made it clear that Sudan should be considered fair game - an enemy like Hamas and Iran - and that Egypt's interests were also at stake. "It is clear that it (Sudan) supports the smuggling of munitions, or it helps Gaza. In actuality, these munitions pass through Egypt, so it is endangering its major neighbor, Egypt. It harms national security because tomorrow these arms could also be used against the Egyptians," Gilad told Army Radio.
The Iranian Threat
|Richard N. Haass||October 27th 2012|
Council on Foreign Relations
Most of the debate about how to address Iran's efforts to develop nuclear-weapons capacity focuses on two options. The first is to rely on deterrence and live with an Iran that has a small nuclear arsenal or the ability to assemble one with little advance notice. The second is to launch a preventive military strike aimed at destroying critical parts of the Iranian program and setting back its progress by an estimated two or more years. But now a third option has emerged: negotiating a ceiling on the nuclear program that would not be too low for Iran's government and not too high for the United States, Israel, and the rest of the world.
In fact, such an option has been around for years – and in several rounds of negotiations. What has changed, however, is the context. And changes in context can be critical; indeed, what happens away from the negotiating table almost always determines the outcome of face-to-face talks. The single most important change in context is the rapidly deteriorating state of Iran's economy. The many financial and oil-related sanctions that have been implemented in recent months and years are starting to bite. They were designed not to impede Iran's nuclear program directly, but rather to increase the price that Iran's leaders must pay for pursuing their nuclear ambitions. The thinking (or, more accurately, the hope) was that Iran's leadership, if forced to choose between regime survival and nuclear weapons, would choose the former. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Jim Malone||October 26th 2012|
President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, are engaged in a furious final push for votes with a little more than a week to go before Election Day on November 6. Both campaigns are going to great lengths to ensure their supporters get to the polls either on or before Election Day. Public-opinion polls show a very tight race for president and both candidates are targeting a small group of so-called swing states that will determine the outcome. The southern state of Florida is a frequent stop for both Mitt Romney and President Obama. “Florida, I believe in you. I’m asking you to keep believing in me," the president said during a campaign stop this week.
Another prime target is the Midwest state of Ohio, where Romney is urging supporters to get out and vote early. “Because we happen to believe that America faces big challenges and we recognize this is a year with a big choice and Americans want to see big changes, and I’m going to bring it to this country," he told the crowd. Read more ..
The Edge of Terrorism
|David Schenker||October 26th 2012|
Hezbollah's days of dominating Lebanon are likely numbered, and the militia's recent behavior suggests that it sees the writing on the wall.
To many Lebanese, the massive car bomb attack in Beirut on Friday that killed the Sunni Muslim head of internal security Wissam al Hassan and seven others evoked the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri. Members of the Shiite militia Hezbollah were indicted for the 2005 crime, and the organization -- along with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's regime -- is a leading suspect in this latest outrage. Rather than a demonstration of strength, however, the attack highlights the militia's sense of insecurity.
For much of the past decade, Hezbollah has struck a cocky pose. But twenty months into a popular uprising in Syria that threatens to topple the Assad regime, interrupt Hezbollah supply lines, and leave the Shiite Party of God surrounded by a sea of Sunni Muslims, the organization is under unprecedented pressure and its normally confident leader Hassan Nasrallah seems concerned. While his speeches continue to reflect their perennial bravado, in recent appearances Nasrallah clearly isn't looking himself. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Shoshana Bryen||October 25th 2012|
Jewish Policy Center
There are two reasons for the U.S. to seek the demise of Bashar Assad's regime -- for what it would mean to Syria and for what it would mean to Iran. The first is insufficient reason for the U.S. to involve itself directly. The second raises the elephant-in-the-room question: "Would the Obama administration act against the expressed interests of Putin's Russia to achieve a victory against Iran in Syria?"
The administration currently takes the approach that a serious American strategic objective can be achieved without direct American military involvement. Arming the "good rebels" is supposed to oust Assad and provide later influence in Damascus. But while the CIA was looking for the good guys (we didn't have a serious presence in the area until August), the administration was outsourcing the political conversation and the transfer of aid and weapons from Saudi Arabia and Qatar to increasingly openly Muslim Brotherhood-supporting Turkey. That gave the Sunni-related -- and maybe al-Qaeda-related -- jihadi rebels a head start. So now we have to assume that the "good rebels" can defeat the Assad government and the "bad rebels." Read more ..
The Arab Winter of Range
|Evelyn Gordon||October 25th 2012|
One of the most disturbing of many disturbing developments in the Middle East recently is the growing fear among America's traditional Arab allies that Washington's support can no longer be relied on.
Whether this fear has any valid basis is irrelevant. Last month, for instance, Reuters reported on two different conspiracy theories that are gaining currency among the Gulf states' leadership: that America is plotting with the Muslim Brotherhood to replace existing Arab monarchies, and that it wants to create a Shi'ite-led government in Bahrain as a step toward rapprochement with Iran. Needless to say, both are nonsensical. But even if one deems the premise delusional, the consequences are very real - and highly detrimental to American interests.
America's Arab allies have always relied on a U.S. defense umbrella for protection against outside threats, from Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 to Iran today. In exchange, they keep oil markets relatively stable (Saudi Arabia, for instance, boosted oil production to compensate for the shortfall caused by sanctions on Iran), cooperate closely on counterterrorism activity against anti-American groups like al Qaeda (even as they remain largely responsible for financing the spread of the extremist Islamic ideology that fosters such terrorism), avoid destabilizing military activity, and occasionally support other American policy goals (for instance, Saudi Arabia's grand mufti publicly denounced the attacks on America's consulate in Benghazi and embassy in Cairo as un-Islamic). Read more ..
|James Brooke||October 25th 2012|
As gray winter skies descend on Moscow, Russians are adjusting to a political winter. Since taking office nearly six months ago, President Vladimir Putin has methodically reduced civic space in Russia by advocating new laws on treason, blasphemy, libel, Internet censorship and curbs on public protest. Then on Monday, Russians saw a new twist: a well-known opposition activist, Leonid Razvozzhayev, shouting to reporters that he had been kidnapped off a sidewalk in Kyiv, Ukraine, and forcibly brought to Moscow for trial.
Oleg Kashin, a radio analyst for the Russian daily Kommersant, says get used to it. President Putin, he says, is taking Russia down the road of neighboring Belarus, a nation run for 18 years by Alexander Lukashenko, often called "the last dictator of Europe." What may hold the Russian president back is what analysts in Russia call “handshakeability”: Putin is still welcome in Western capitals, whereas Lukashenko is not.
Back to Soviet era
With the ruling party sweeping all governors' elections two weeks ago and a new "foreign agent" law going into effect next week, Putin seems to be taking a big political step back to the Soviet Union. For now, these conservative new laws seem to be having a chilling effect.
Masha Lipman, an analyst for Carnegie Moscow, says she sees “...a desire to intimidate the tens of thousands of people who have taken part in protests and other forms of civic activism, and indeed push them back where they used to be.” Lipman and others say the goal is to return Russia to the apolitical days during the boom years of the 2000s. During this decade, Russians largely traded their political freedoms for the freedom to travel, to buy, and to make more money. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Soner Cagaptay and Parag Khanna ||October 24th 2012|
|Protesting Syrian Kurds|
One-and-a-half years into Syria's civil war, the latest chapter is the armed hostility between Syria and Turkey, once a friend of the Assad regime. A century ago, it was Western powers that dismantled and carved up the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Today, Turkey can place itself in the driver's seat of shaping the borders of the emerging Near East map.
Syria's slide into ungovernability suggests that, unlike Libya at the moment, splintering and partition are increasingly likely outcomes, unless the Assad regime falls. If the conflict in Syria continues unabated, leading to full-blown sectarian war between Alawites and Sunnis, and violent ethnic tensions between Arabs and Kurds, the scenario that is more likely to unfold now is more along the Iraq model of de facto zones of semi-independent control.
Aleppo and Damascus would still likely be connected, though they would be pulled in different directions thanks to countervailing trade links. There would be a middling Druze enclave in the south. Alawites, or at least those who survive the impending and unfortunate cataclysm, would retreat to their traditional stronghold around the Mediterranean port of Latakia. Read more ..
India and the Middle East
|Gil Feiler||October 24th 2012|
In order to better examine India's new role on the world stage and the Middle East we must first understand the extent of India's economic transformation and its political impact.
From its inception in 1947, India's economic progress was dictated by the country’s adoption of socialist principles in localized form. The ruling ideology sought distributive justice, poverty eradication and the avoidance of wealth concentration as a social, political and economic policy. Modern India's founding fathers bequeathed a "mixed economy" of mostly state-directed projects and small privately owned businesses.
Policy implementation was managed through five year plans by an immense and ponderous bureaucracy that would regulate every facet of the country's economic and political life. Indian economic development policies were characterized by an inward focus on the immense internal market, and the stated goal of economic self-sufficiency. Large state supported industrial projects and rural development were the main means to achieve these goals. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|George Friedman||October 24th 2012|
Monday night's presidential foreign policy debate probably won't change the opinion of many voters. Proponents of President Barack Obama are still convinced that Mitt Romney is a fool and a liar. Proponents of former Gov. Romney have the same view of the president.
Of course, this is normal in any American presidential race. Along with the eternal conviction that the party in power is destroying the country, we have regarded Abraham Lincoln, during the 1860 election, as a simple-minded country bumpkin with a touch of larceny; Franklin Roosevelt as a rich dilettante and socialist; and Dwight Eisenhower as a bumbling fool who is lazy and incapable of understanding the complexity of the world -- this about the man who, during World War II, led the most complex military coalition on the planet to victory. Read more ..
Brazil on Edge
|Joel Jaeger||October 23rd 2012|
In Latin America’s largest country, journalists, legislators, courts, street gangs, and political factions are waging a back-and-forth war over the status of the freedom of the press. Brazil has experienced a recent spate of threats and violence against journalists, including the slaying of seven journalists in the first half of 2012 alone. In terms of the freedom of the press, one human rights organization places Brazil 91st of 197 countries in the world, and 21st of 35 countries in the Americas. While Brazil is not yet the worst setting for the independent press, current trends suggest that its press freedoms will be increasingly challenged in the months and years to come.
Challenges for Journalists
Brazilian journalists are facing disheartening violence and censorship from a variety of sources. Some of these attacks are gang-related, such as on August 30, when drug traffickers fired at a TV news van in an effort to assert their dominance over a neighborhood in Salvador, the capital of the Brazilian state of Bahai. Read more ..
|Simon Henderson||October 23rd 2012|
When Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani arrives in the Gaza Strip tomorrow, he will be the first head of state to visit the territory since Hamas seized power in 2007. Ostensibly, he will be there to inaugurate some Qatari-funded aid projects, but his visit has much wider significance.
The Gulf state of Qatar has one of the world's smallest populations (around 200,000 citizens) but one of the highest per capita incomes (over $110,000, the result of rapid development of huge natural gas reserves). This wealth affords a huge foreign labor force to help build the country, as well as a surplus that enables it to have a diplomatic profile out of proportion to its size.
Ably assisted by his prime minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim, the emir has made Qatar a regional player and an increasingly important actor on the world stage. Its Aljazeera satellite television network influences opinion in the region and further afield. Qatar is also the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, and its airline flies to more than a hundred destinations. Read more ..
Palestine on Edge
|Anav Silverman||October 22nd 2012|
Tazpit News Agency
The Palestinian Authority is facing a severe financial crisis, according to an executive summary recently submitted by the Israeli government this past September to the international Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC), for assisted Palestinian development, in New York. The report showed that although a shortfall in international donor aid has played a significant factor in the current PA fiscal crisis, overspending in the implementation of the 2011 PA budget has also contributed to financial troubles.
Israel’s report, which is available on the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) website, indicates that the overspending occurred due to the PA’s disbursement for development expenses--for which no funds were available-at the expense of recurrent expenditure. During 2012, the budgetary goals were not met in the first half of the year, and were built upon financing gaps of more than $150 million. “The public finance management system’s role in the current crisis may undermine its track record as a system that meets the requirements of a well-functioning state,” the report stated. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Russ Choma||October 22nd 2012|
Priorities USA Action, the super PAC backing President Barack Obama, scored another win last month in the head-to-head matchup against its counterpart.
Restore Our Future, which backs GOP nominee Mitt Romney, towers over all other super PACs in terms of cash raised -- $111.4 million since it was formed last year -- but for the past two months, Priorities USA has bested it. In September, Priorities raised $15.2 million, while Restore Our Future picked up $14.8 million.
Comparing the two groups' donors, it's clear that while both turn to traditional demographics -- unions for the Democrats and big business for the Republican side -- the real fundraising might comes from extremely wealthy individuals who write enormous checks. Overall, Priorities received about 85 percent of its money for the month from individuals -- $13 million from 716 such donors. Restore Our Future relied on individuals for about 79 percent of its cash -- $10.9 million from 215 individuals. Read more ..
Security on Edge
|Gene Bolton||October 21st 2012|
The ambiguity between the role of military forces and the police is a growing concern in Central America’s Northern Triangle countries, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. In all three countries, underpaid, outmanned, outgunned, and ill-trained police forces are forced to solicit assistance from the military. Most international attention on these matters revolves around social pathologies, such as drug violence, gang rivalries, and overcrowded prisons. While all of these issues remain major problems in the countries, the militarization of the police force is a larger, almost uncontainable, domestic issue that threatens citizens’ safety. As it stands, the Northern Triangle situation is the most severe challenge to the leadership of these nations. Despite past experiences, U.S. foreign policy in Latin America supports military assistance for police forces, and contributes to the current ambiguity. Read more ..
Israel on Edge
|Eli E. Hertz||October 21st 2012|
Cutting Edge commentator
In June 1967, the combined armies of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan attacked Israel with the clear purpose expressed by Egypt's President: "Destruction of Israel." At the end of what is now known as the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel, against all odds, was victorious and in possession of the territories of the West Bank, Sinai and the Golan Heights.
International law makes a clear distinction between defensive wars and wars of aggression. Egypt's blockade of the waterway known as the Strait of Tiran, which prevented access to Israel's southern port of Eilat, was an act of aggression that led to the Six-Day War in 1967. More than six decades after the 1948 War and more than four decades since the 1967 Six-Day War, it is hard to imagine the dire circumstances Israel faced and the price it paid to fend off its neighbors' attacks. Read more ..
The Iranian Threat
|Eddie Boxx||October 21st 2012|
A major two-week missile defense exercise has just started in Israel involving both Israeli and U.S. military personnel. But Exercise Austere Challenge 12 has wider significance as it also highlights the efforts invested by the United States in building capabilities for allies in the East Mediterranean and Persian Gulf region to counter Iran's substantial rocket and missile threat.
For their part, Iranian leaders have repeatedly threatened to strike U.S. bases and coalition partners in the region with missiles in the event of a conflict, and have expressed confidence that their missiles could overwhelm current defenses. Thus, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Mohammad Jafari, stated in September 2012 that U.S. missile defenses in the region "could only work for a few missiles, but when exposed to a massive volume of missiles … [they] will not work." As a result, according to Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Qods Force, the "enemies of the Islamic Revolution have been left hopeless and paralyzed due to the IRGC's missile … might and power." Read more ..
Lebanon on Edge
|Dan Levin||October 20th 2012|
From RT and agencies
Tensions run high in Lebanon as the government declared an emergency meeting following a bomb attack that killed a top security official. Clashes and protests have been reported throughout the country amid opposition calls for the PM to resign.
Riots and protests continued into Saturday as thousands of people across Lebanon voiced their ire at the car bomb blast in Beirut on Friday that claimed the lives of eight people. Over a hundred people were also injured in the explosion that killed Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan.
Enraged citizens have blocked roads with burning tires as a sign of their protest, while clashes in the city of Tripoli close to the southern Syrian border fueled fears the Syria’s conflict is overflowing across the border. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati offered to step down amidst the fallout of Friday’s deadly attack, but President Michel Suleiman refused his resignation. Read more ..
|Susan Ferriss and Amy Isackson ||October 20th 2012|
The Center for Public Integrity
Read more ..
Given the white-hot politics of immigration, it’s perhaps not surprising that President Obama instantly drew fire with a proposal in January to help undocumented spouses of American citizens obtain legal status — without being ousted from the U.S. for years as punishment. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas — the chairman of the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee — accused Obama of “bending long established rules” and pursuing a “backdoor amnesty.”
“Who is the President batting for — illegal immigrants or the American people?” Smith said in a statement.
Smith is no casual observer. He is the key author of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, which established penalties mandating years of exile for illegal immigrants before they can return to the United States and legalize — even if they are married to an American citizen. Marriage is one of the primary ways a person obtains legal status within the largely family-based U.S. immigration system.
The Battle for Syria
|Joel Brinkley||October 19th 2012|
Israel Resource Review
For months now, the United States has been providing direct so-called humanitarian assistance to the Syrian rebels-while cautioning Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Arab states to limit the types of weaponry they provide. Rifles and other small arms are okay, the administration says, but not heavier weapons that might fall into the hands of al-Qaeda and other terrorists fighting alongside the rebels.
The last thing Washington wants to do, administration officials have repeatedly said, is “radicalize the conflict.” But the truth is, that’s exactly what happening, and America’s strategy carries some of the blame.With AK-47s, hand grenades, and other light weapons, the Syrians are able to do little more than maintain a stalemate with the far better armed Syrian military. That’s why the rebellion is now in its 19th month. And along the way more and more extremists are pouring into the country. Read more ..
Iran on Edge
|Barry Rubin||October 19th 2012|
Perhaps you remember an incredibly sensational story from back in October 2011 that after a brief period in the headlines disappeared completely. The U.S. government arrested an Iranian-American citizen in Texas and charged him with being an agent of the Iranian government who planned at Tehran’s behest to hire a Mexican drug gang to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in a fiery terrorist attack in Washington DC.
It would have been another September 11, albeit on a far smaller scale. Knowing about such an operation should have been a real game-changer for U.S. Middle East policy. Now that man, Manssor Arbabsiar, arrested in September 2011, has pled guilty to these charges in a Manhattan court. The trial is scheduled for January.
The case is so important because the U.S. government was officially claiming that the Iranian regime planned an act of war on American soil. Talking to journalists, U.S. officials insisted that the very top leaders in Iran must have authorized the attack, though they admitted they didn’t have hard proof. Read more ..
America and Israel
|Barry Rubin||October 17th 2012|
One argument we will be increasingly hearing is that President Barack Obama couldn’t have done anything to change events in the Middle East. This is ironic of course because when things were going well he wanted to take credit as the inspiration for the “Arab Spring.”
Let’s remember that the president began with three acts that foreshadowed what was to come. He gave a speech in Cairo in which Muslim Brotherhood leaders were seated at the front, thus making it impossible for Egyptian government officials to attend. Obama thus not only declared himself on the side of the opposition but of the Islamist opposition.
What’s even important but never noticed was something critical Obama did. In discussing the Middle East and the Arabic-speaking world he exalted Islamic identity. Remember that for six decades national, i.e., Arab, identity that had dominated. True, it was used by dictatorships and for demagogic, anti-American purposes. Now, however, here was an American president declaring that religious identity should dominate. This was an action against both the existing regimes but also against the moderate opposition forces. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|R. Jeffrey Smith||October 16th 2012|
Closely-fought presidential campaigns can confound expectations by constricting — rather than broadening — public debate about significant policy issues, a phenomenon most recently on display during the debate between Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Rep. Paul D. Ryan. The two men, offering a preview of the foreign policy issues expected to arise at the Oct. 16 and Oct. 22 debates between President Obama and Mitt Romney, mostly competed to demonstrate the muscularity of their teams’ approaches to a vexing set of international challenges.
Each vowed their party would play tough with Iran and stick by the current hard line leadership in Israel; spend whatever is needed for critical U.S. military operations and forces; safely extract U.S. troops from Afghanistan; and efficiently engineer the ouster of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
Ryan argued that Iran’s drive for a nuclear weapon has been relentless, and that it is closer now to achieving its goal than it was when Obama won election. Biden responded that Iran is more isolated now than ever before, and said international sanctions are seriously harming the Iranian economy. Read more ..
The Iranian Threat
|Ben Cohen||October 16th 2012|
|Screen capture from Iran's PressTV.|
Three years after the Iranian regime’s English-language broadcaster, Press TV, plastered London’s buses with an advertising campaign that billed the station as “giving a voice to the voiceless,” Europe’s airwaves have been abruptly closed to its propaganda offerings. Here’s Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:
A leading European satellite provider has taken 19 Iranian television and radio broadcasters off the air.
Satellite provider Eutelsat and media services company Arqiva said the decision has been made because of “reinforced” European Union sanctions aimed at punishing human rights abusers. People in Iran still have access to most of the channels operated by Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, but the channels are no longer broadcast in Europe and elsewhere. Read more ..
Iran on Edge
|Patrick Clawson||October 16th 2012|
The Washington Institute
The depreciation of the rial is unlikely to change Iran's foreign-policy calculations.
The conventional wisdom that the collapse of the Iranian rial will have disastrous consequences for the Islamic Republic has it wrong: On the contrary, it could be the best thing that has happened to the Iranian economy in years.
Iran is a classic case of the resource curse. OPEC founder Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonso, who served as Venezuela's oil minister, called oil "the devil's excrement" for the pernicious impact petroleum revenues had on his country's economy. The same is true for Iran, which faces the challenge of becoming a country that produces goods, not merely consumes them. Unfortunately, the current Iranian government shows few indications it will meet this challenge. Rather, history suggests that Tehran will instead persist in its populist policies, including its confrontation with the international community about its nuclear program. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Meghashyam Mali||October 15th 2012|
A new survey from Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Mitt Romney with a 1-point lead in Florida thanks to strong gains among independent voters. The poll from the Democratic-affiliated firm finds Romney leading President Obama with 49 percent support to 48 among likely voters. The advantage is the result of a five-point gain for the GOP nominee from late September, when he trailed in the same poll by a 50-46 margin.
Obama’s 51-40 advantage three weeks before among independent voters is now a Romney 51-43 edge.
The poll shows Obama and Romney’s favorability ratings also moving in opposite directions since the first of their three debates Oct. 3. Romney was widely-considered to have won the first face-off and the candidates will debate again on Tuesday Oct. 16. Read more ..
Iran on Edge
|Chafrles Recknagel||October 14th 2012|
Western sanctions are moving Iran's economy into unknown territory as they press Tehran to give up controversial nuclear activities. The cracks in Iran's economic planning became plain as parliamentarians voted overwhelmingly on October 7 to reopen debate on a key government economic program. The vote came just days after the rial made a record plunge against the U.S. dollar as sanctions on oil exports limit Iran's access to hard currency.
Legislators said ordinary citizens cannot afford the government's anticipated second round of rollbacks to price subsidies at a time when the national currency is sagging. The government's reform program, which began in 2010, intends to progressively remove blanket subsidies on food and fuel in favor of direct cash payments to the needy.
A date for the parliamentary debate has yet to be set. But the legislators' challenge throws into disarray a plan the government has said could save it as much as $100 billion a year and help move Iran toward a more efficient market-based system. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Rebecca Strauss||October 13th 2012|
Council on Foreign Relations
Of the competitive disadvantages faced by the United States, its democratic system is not supposed to be one of them. Quite the opposite. The stability of the U.S. democratic process and the trusted legal system it has produced have long been a competitive advantage. It is a big reason why so many global business powerhouses are headquartered in the United States. But the recent World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report found that business concerns about the U.S. political process is one of the major factors pulling the U.S. down in global rankings. Jonathan Browning, President of Volkswagen America, said at a Brookings event last week: “[The United States] needs to restore global confidence in the workings of its political system” to continue to attract foreign investment. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Soner Cagaptay||October 12th 2012|
Turkey was the first country to take direct military action against the government of Bashar al-Assad since Syria’s uprising began in the spring of 2011. And tensions are escalating further: earlier this week, the Turkish government sent 25 F-16 fighters to an air base near the border with Syria and on Wednesday it forced a Syrian passenger plane to land in the Turkish capital, Ankara, where suspected military aid shipments were taken off the plane.
The shelling along the Turkish-Syrian border is a critical development. The Assad regime is already busy fighting the Free Syrian Army near the Turkish border, where it has been bombing towns and villages. Precision artillery targeting is difficult, and the Syrian military is not known for its accuracy. What’s more, many rebel-held areas lie right next to the Turkish border. Hence even if the Syrians try not to shell Turkish territory, they are quite likely to cause inadvertent damage, potentially killing Turkish citizens — as happened on Oct. 3, when Syrian artillery landed in Akcakale, a Turkish border town. Read more ..
China and Japan
|Henry Ridgwell||October 12th 2012|
The dispute between Japan and China over the ownership of a chain of islands in the East China Sea continues to escalate, with China boycotting a meeting of the IMF being held in Tokyo. A growing sense of fear over China's increasing strength is being reported in the Japanese capital.
In August a fleet of Japanese boats headed for the disputed islands, called the Senkaku by Japan, and the Diaoyu by China. After a journey of several hours, some of the activists - including Japanese lawmakers - swim out to the uninhabited rocks. The expedition was organized by 'Ganbare Nippon', a nationalist group whose name loosely translates as 'Go Japan.' Its founder is the right-wing filmmaker and playwright Satoru Mizushima.
"Historically the Senkaku are Japan's islands and China never owned the islands before. The Chinese state media accept that fact," said Mizushima. "But in 1970 gas and oil was found beneath the ocean floor; only then did China start to say that the Senkaku belong to them." In recent weeks the dispute has sparked violent anti-Japanese protests across China, with Japanese businesses and property targeted. The group Ganbare Nippon has organized counter-protests in Tokyo. Read more ..
Israel and Palestine
|Eli E. Hertz||October 11th 2012|
Cutting Edge commentyator
Resolution 194, adopted by the UN General Assembly on December 11, 1948, addressed a host of issues, but only one paragraph out of 15 dealt with refugees created by the conflict. Resolution 194 attempted to create the tools required to reach a truce in the region. It established a conciliation commission with representatives from the United States, France and Turkey to replace the UN mediator. The commission was charged with achieving "a final settlement of all questions between … governments and authorities concerned." The Resolution’s "refugee clause" is not a standalone item, as the Arabs would have us think, nor does it pertain specifically to Palestinian Arab refugees.
One paragraph has drawn the most attention: Paragraph 11, which alone addressed the issue of refugees and compensation for those whose property was lost or damaged. Contrary to Arab claims, it did not guarantee a Right of Return and certainly did not guarantee an unconditional Right of Return – that is the right of Palestinian Arab refugees to return to Israel. Nor did it specifically mention Arab refugees, thereby indicating that the resolution was aimed at all refugees, both Jewish and Arab. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Ephraim Kam||October 11th 2012|
Israel Behind the News
There is no doubt that Iran is quite concerned about events in Syria and the possibility that the Assad regime will be toppled. Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has not had any real ally, among the superpowers or in the region, other than Syria. The alliance between Iran and Syria has lasted more than thirty years, the longest alliance between any two states in the region in the last few decades. Syria is a key component in Iran’s security doctrine, as it is a principal arena in the struggle against Israel, the United States, and the West in general. Moreover, Syria is an important link connecting Iran to Lebanon, viewed by Iran as a significant arena thanks to Hizbollah’s successful evolution as a prominent Shiite-Islamist organization integrally tied to Tehran, and in turn, the construction of a Hizbollah-led Lebanon that can function as an Iranian front against Israel.
These important achievements are liable to be seriously undermined should Assad’s regime collapse. This is of course not an inevitable outcome to the current turmoil; perhaps the damage to Iran will be limited or Assad’s regime will survive despite its current difficulties. In another scenario, the current regime could survive but without Assad and his cronies who would be exiled after some sort of compromise with the opposition. It may also be that Syria will be overcome by chaos, a situation Iran could exploit to expand its influence by sending arms and cash to various factions as it did in Iraq. However, these scenarios are no consolation to Iran; it views its assets in Syria and Lebanon as at risk, and should these disappear, its regional standing will be negatively affected. The Iranians are presumably concerned on yet another score: the Iranian opposition, in a state of suspended animation for the last three years, could be inspired by the collapse of Assad’s regime and encouraged to renew its activity against the Islamic regime in Iran.
The worst possible scenario from Iran’s point of view would be for the next Syrian regime to distance itself from Tehran, forge closer relations with the United States and the West, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and distance itself from Hizbollah. Indeed, Iran views the Western pressure on the Assad regime as part of the effort designed to topple the regime in Tehran and change the regional balance of power to Iran’s detriment. In recent years Iran has worked to establish a radical Shiite axis extending from western Afghanistan, through Iran, to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, with a proxy in the Gaza Strip. In Iran’s view, what is at stake is thus not only the future of its main ally but also the possibility of the toppling of the central and irreplaceable link in the axis it has tried to build. Read more ..
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