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The Iranian Threat

Ahmedinejad Lies at the UN: Israel has no Historical Roots in the Middle East

September 27th 2012

Ahmadinejad at UN

Defying historical fact, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad continued his existential verbal attacks on the State of Israel, claiming Israel has no historical basis in the Middle East Region.

Speaking to reporters at the United Nations before his address to the General Assembly, Ahmedinejad claimed that Israel has no Middle East roots and would be "eliminated".

“Iran has been around for the last 7,000, 10,000 years. They [the Israelis] have been occupying those territories for the last 60 to 70 years, with the support and force of the Westerners. They have no roots there in history,” he said. “We do believe that they have found themselves at a dead end, and they are seeking new adventures in order to escape this dead end. Iran will not be damaged with foreign bombs,” he continued, referring to Israel.

“We don’t even count them as any part of any equation for Iran,” he added. “During a historical phase, they represent minimal disturbances that come into the picture and are then eliminated.” Read more ..


Iran's Nukes

Inside Iran's Nuclear Warhead

September 27th 2012

Edwin Black

Since the last century, Iran has been methodically pursuing the in-house capability of developing a missile-delivered nuclear bomb. The regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now closer than ever and probably in the latter stages of perfecting an atomic bomb with a multipoint detonation mechanism, compact enough to insert into a Shahab-3 missile nosecone.

For years, the Obama administration, Western governments, the United Nations, and the International Atomic Energy Administration (IAEA) have been fully aware of the specific details of Tehran’s nuclear weapons program, down to the blueprints and names of the engineers. Whether or not Iran will complete the last leg of its decades-long journey toward a deliverable atomic bomb is still unknown. The difference in viewing the cannon is whether you are staring down the muzzle or observing it through a telescope from a perch six thousand miles away. Israel is peering into the muzzle, hence its assessment is different than Washington’s.

Protracted multilateral negotiations, crippling international sanctions, and even elaborate programs of sabotage have delayed but not derailed the nearly autarkic program. Now the world teeters at the brink of a regional war with profound global ramifications because the threat may have been ignored too long.

Here are the four determining factors, the dynamics of which will govern whether Israel launches a preemptive attack against Tehran’s massive nuclear infrastructure.

The four technological achievements are key to completing Tehran’s nuclear weapon are: 1) accretion of enough nuclear materials, highly enriched to 90 percent, to make the bomb; 2) machining that highly-enriched material into metal for a spheroid warhead so it can fit into a missile nosecone for detonation; 3) a trigger mechanism to initiate the atomic explosion at the precise moment of missile reentry; and, of course, 4) a reliable rocket delivery system to carry such a weapon. Read more ..


Mexico on Edge

The Last Days of Mexico's President Felipe Calderon

September 26th 2012

Calderon and Pena Nieto
Left to right: Enrique Peña Nieto and President Felipe Calderón of Mexico

The southern neighbor of the United States of America faces a transition of its executive power in less than one hundred days. The inauguration of Enrique Peña Nieto of Partido Revolucionario Institucional or the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) will take place on December 1 and Felipe Calderón from Partido Acción Nacional or National Action Party (PAN) will cease to be the president of Mexico. The change goes beyond a simple switch of names and men in position: it is a debate of continuity, as well as the nature of security and economic policies under Calderón. In the meantime, a large number of PRI’s deputies and senators have taken their seats in the Congress and the Senate of Mexico, leaving Calderón’s PAN party with less influence than ever in political maneuvers.

As the date of Peña Nieto’s inauguration approaches, talks about the presidential transition also have begun. It is the second time that independent Mexico is facing a presidential change from one party to another and the first time the United States’ neighbor will be governed by the PRI again after twelve years of PAN rule. The PRI has governed Mexico for most of the 20th century and during this period serious doubts have been raised about the quality of Mexican democracy and the use of authoritative tactics during its time in power. Read more ..


Colombia on Edge

The Price Colombia Pays for Negotiating with FARC Guerrillas

September 25th 2012

Colombia FARC rebels

Early in October, peace negotiations will take place between the Colombian Government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Oslo, Norway. If successful, the talks will continue in Havana, Cuba. These talks are taking place against the backdrop of major military victories by the Colombian army against the FARC, the elimination of key FARC leaders in the last four years, and, confirmed connections between the FARC and the governments of Venezuela and Ecuador.

The upcoming talks were made possible through the mediation of Chile, Venezuela and Cuba. Venezuela and Cuba are two key players in the revolutionary, anti-American Bolivarian alliance. The Government of Venezuela has been one of the staunchest enemies of Colombia whom it views as an American puppet. Venezuela has also objected to the war on drugs and to Plan Colombia.. Many of Hugo Chavez's international political attacks have been directed towards Colombia. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Obama Hopes to Restore Foreign Policy Cred at United Nations

September 25th 2012

Obama Bowed Head

President Obama will use his address to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday to argue his administration will have a muscular and active policy in the Middle East, an effort to counter recent criticism from Mitt Romney.

When he takes the stage, Obama will “send a clear message that the United States will never retreat from the world,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said on Monday.

The address comes at a pivotal point in the presidential race just six weeks before Election Day, with Obama appearing to be opening a lead in a number of swing states.

While the economy remains the dominant issue in the campaign, Obama will be forced to address the criticism lobbed in recent days from Romney and Republicans, who have sought to portray him as weak and inconsistent on foreign policy.

The Romney campaign has seized on Obama’s decision not to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the General Assembly, as well as the recent attack on the U.S. Consulate in Libya to bolster its argument that the president’s policies abroad aren’t as strong as he has been portraying to the American public. Romney officials argue that the president is undermining U.S. strength overseas and abandoning its closest allies, including Israel. Romney aides point to the fact that Obama taped an appearance on ABC’s “The View” instead of using the time to meet with the assembled leaders as part of traditional bilateral meetings. Read more ..


Geopolitical Edge

Getting to the Heart of the Japan/China Conflict

September 25th 2012

Japnese destroyer at Guandong China

Sept. 29 will mark 40 years of normalized diplomatic relations between China and Japan, two countries that spent much of the 20th century in mutual enmity if not at outright war. The anniversary comes at a low point in Sino-Japanese relations amid a dispute over an island chain in the East China Sea known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan and Diaoyu Islands in China.

These islands, which are little more than uninhabited rocks, are not particularly valuable on their own. However, nationalist factions in both countries have used them to enflame old animosities; in China, the government has even helped organize the protests over Japan's plan to purchase and nationalize the islands from their private owner. Read more ..


America on Edge

US Slips in Freedom and Health

September 24th 2012

Premature Baby

Health care policy can be tricky to navigate. One reason stems from the difficulty of measuring its intangibles — differences in the quality of life, for example, or the social value of extending life for a few days. A new report from Canada's Fraser Institute has does the hard work of putting a number on a related intangible concept: economic freedom.

Assessing data on 42 variables (i.e. trade barriers, property rights, etc.) across 144 countries, the report's authors discover the United States' score has plummeted over the last decade. While 2nd only to Hong Kong in 2000, we dropped all the way to 18th in the latest report. In contrast, our neighbor to the north, Canada, ranks 5th worldwide in economic freedom.

None of the measured variables in the freedom index relate to health care per se. However, the news release emphasizes that "much of this decline is a result of high spending on the part of the U.S. government."  Indeed, I have calculated that if government's share of consumption spending and government transfers and subsidies as a percent of GDP (two of the components that make up the index's size of government variable) had remained at their 2000 level, the U.S. freedom index ranking would have been 12th instead of 18th in 2010. Read more ..


The Arab Winter of Rage

Avoiding a Sectarian Split in the Middle East

September 24th 2012

Syrian Kurdish protesters

As the Assad regime hurtles toward deserved collapse in Syria, I often think back to a warning I received from a friend 18 months ago. I was serving then as the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad and was focused on Iraqi problems. But my confidant, an Iraqi Kurd with a strong commitment to a unified, multi-sectarian Iraq, and who was no friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was worried about the uprising brewing in neighboring Syria. Unless the United States was able to influence events, he cautioned, a revolt might violently split Syria, and then Iraq and finally the region along sectarian lines.

The sense that Assad's days are numbered has prompted worries that militant Sunni extremists might claw their way to the top in Damascus. A greater and related danger, however, is that the uprising will degenerate into a Sunni-Shiite conflict that could spread beyond Syria's borders and further destabilize the Middle East. Read more ..


The Arab Winter of Rage

How the Arab Spring Exploded into a Wave of Violence

September 23rd 2012

Embassy Attacks 9-12-12

Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Immigration Deal a Lock in 2013 if Obama Re-elected

September 22nd 2012

Border Patrol shakedown

A prominent Hispanic lawmaker is predicting that President Obama and a weakened Republican Party will strike a deal on immigration next year. Rep. Luis Gutierrez said he’s received no promises from the White House that Obama would move quickly on immigration reform if reelected in November. But the Illinois Democrat said it’s a lock the president would use a second term to revamp the nation’s immigration laws.

Such changes have been a third rail in Washington for most of the last decade, as President George W. Bush couldn’t overcome Republican opposition to his comprehensive immigration reform plan. Gutierrez predicted the results of November’s elections would prove a game changer, as the sheer number of Latinos voting against Mitt Romney will force GOP leaders to support reforms for fear of alienating those voters indefinitely.

“I’m absolutely positive he’s going to [prioritize immigration reform],” Gutierrez said Friday of Obama, “because the Republicans are going to take such a beating in this election that they’re going to propose [their own plan].” Romney is working hard to ensure such a beating doesn’t happen, reaching out to Latino voters in a series of recent speeches, Spanish-language ads and interviews with the Hispanic press. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Obama's Support Drops Among Florida Jews

September 21st 2012

Obama and Flag

Recent polls indicate a small but possibly decisive drop in Jewish support for President Barack Obama, particularly in the pivotal state of Florida. While Obama enjoys a massive lead among Jewish voters, his 70 percent of the vote represents a nearly 10-point drop from the results of the 2008 election. The 70 percent number is shared between two major polls, one by Gallup, the other by the American Jewish Committee. The AJC poll, however, also measured Jewish support in the swing state of Florida, which many believe will decide the 2012 election as it did in 2000. As the Times of Israel points out, "A 7% drop in the Jewish vote likely represents over 50,000 votes in a state that the Republicans won in 2000 by fewer than 600 votes."

AJC Executive Director David Harris explains that: "In a key state, to which both parties are devoting a great deal of time and attention, and where recent history is a reminder that the margin of victory can be razor-thin, the Jewish vote takes on added importance." Read more ..


The Arab Winter of Rage

Libya An Existential Threat to the West

September 21st 2012

Amb. Christopher Stevens, killed in Libya #2

Faced with graphic photos of the tortured dead body of the late U.S. ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, being dragged through the streets of Benghazi by a mob, one can't help but think that, together with the ambassador's body, the country at the helm of the free world was also dragged through the mud and humiliated. The attack on the American Consulate in Benghazi this week was yet another horrendous chord in the symphony of terror that is offending the ears of the West. The West, for its part, is shutting its ears and closing its eyes and avoiding the recognition that, for quite some time now, it has been under existential attack.

Let's stop pretending that these are just "radical Islamists" or "extremist Salafists" or any other restrictive, politically correct definition meant to disarm the West's defenses, instead of giving it the tools to deal with the menacing Islamic wave that is threatening to destroy Western civilization from within. The Western world shouldn't really care that some idiot made a movie that desecrates Islam (titled "Innocence of Muslims").

Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Senate Candidates in Massachusetts Resort to Mud-Slinging Debate

September 21st 2012

Scott Brown

Republican Sen. Scott Brown and his Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren went head-to-head Thursday night in the first of four debates, as they battle for the Senate seat from Massachusetts in one of the most high-profile contests in the 2012 political landscape.

Brown, who won the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy in a special election upset in 2010, attacked Warren's character several times during the hourlong face-off, bringing up that Warren misrepresented herself as a Native American to gain minority status when applying for teaching positions; that she receives a six-figure salary for minimal work as a Harvard professor while representing herself as an advocate for working families; and that she worked as an attorney for a large insurance firm in a case that denied workers' claims for asbestos poisoning. Read more ..


Broken Medicine

Growth of Electronic Medical Records Eases Path to Inflated Bills

September 20th 2012

medicine and money #2

Electronic medical records, long touted by government officials as a critical tool for cutting health care costs, appear to be prompting some doctors and hospitals to bill higher fees to Medicare for treating seniors.

The federal government’s campaign to wire up medicine started under President George W. Bush. But the initiative hit warp drive with a February 2009 decision by Congress and the Obama administration to spend as much as $30 billion in economic stimulus money to help doctors and hospitals buy the equipment needed to convert medical record-keeping from paper files. In the rush to get the program off the ground, though, federal officials failed to impose strict controls over billing software, despite warnings from several prominent medical fraud authorities. Now that decision could come back to haunt policy makers and taxpayers alike, an investigation has found. Read more ..


Inside Iran

Tehran Adds to the Pressure on Iran’s Economy

September 18th 2012

Tarjish bazar Teheran
Tarjish Bazaar, Tehran (credit: Mani Parsa)

Late in August, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called for an “economy of resistance,” which he described as “using the country’s full potential … [to] break the illusions of the arrogant powers” that Tehran will change its policies. Since then, the country’s currency has lost 27 percent of its value on the free market. Yet these and other deteriorating economic circumstances are due not just to ongoing international sanctions, but also to the accumulating impact of inappropriate Iranian government policies. And although the situation may eventually spill over into the nuclear impasse, there are no signs of that at present.

The collapsing rial and stagflation

Until recently, Iran’s economy had been doing rather well -- its growth was higher than that of either the United States or the European Union every year since 2008. But that may be changing. The Iranian rial has been nose-diving since September 2010, when for the first time since the 2002 currency reform, the free market rate fell appreciably below the official rate of about 10,000 rials per dollar (the official rate was periodically adjusted by small amounts). Read more ..


Inside North Korea

September Photo Hints at Kim Uncle’s Enhanced Influence

September 18th 2012

NK military leaders Sep 2012

A recent photograph of North Korea’s leader and his military entourage is stirring speculation that Kim Jong Un’s uncle may have a new role. In a country where the smallest details involving public appearances by North Korea’s leader are choreographed, a uniform change for a key insider is drawing notice. The vice chairman of the national defense commission, Jang Song Taek, has switched his military uniform from light to dark brown. All of the other top brass seen during a ceremony Sunday to mark the country’s 64th anniversary were clad in light brown.

The Chosun Ilbo newspaper in South Korea, quoting an intelligence official in Seoul, says this means Jang, a four-star general who is the uncle of the new, young leader, Kim Jong Un, is now in charge of the most elite bodyguard unit. The General Guard Bureau is at the core of the Kim family dynasty. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Obama Doesn't Waste Terrorist Crisis to Cut National Security Budget

September 17th 2012

Bomb explosion

An Obama White House report -- which was one of the topics of discussion during the weekend news shows -- describes the automatic and drastic spending cuts that will take effect at the end of 2012 should the congressional budget battle continue past election day.

The 394-page report highlights the $129 million a year budget that would have gone to maintaining and protecting U.S. embassies and consulates throughout the world that will be cut beginning on New Year's Day.

"We're talking about upwards of 400 State Department facilities, some of them located in the world's most dangerous nations," said Mike Baker a political consultant and attorney.

But the budget has nothing to do with embassy security. "Ambassador Chris Stevens did not have a Marine detail in Benghazi, Libya. But White House Senior Advisor and Obama confidante Valerie Jarrett has a full Secret Service detail on vacation in Martha’s Vineyard," Democratic pollster Pat Caddell told Big Government. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Obama Has Latino Edge over Romney

September 17th 2012

Obama

President Obama holds a commanding lead over his Republican challenger among Latino voters, with a particular advantage among women, according to a poll released Monday by Latino Decisions.

The survey finds Obama with a 68-26 percent lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney among all Latinos. Among Hispanic women, Obama's lead is even larger. He leads Romney among this consituency by a 74-21 percent margin — a staggering 53-point advantage. Among men, the lead decreases to 61-32 percent in favor of Obama. Both Hispanic women and men give the president a 71 percent favorability rating, while Romney's favorability fails to crack 30 percent with either group. Romney is looking to chip away at that lead with a speech Monday afternoon to the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in Los Angeles. Romney will hit the president on the economy and immigration, according to excerpts of his remarks released by his campaign. Read more ..


Broken Healthcare

Judgment Calls On Billing Make 'Upcoding' Prosecutions Rare

September 17th 2012

judge's gavel

There simply weren’t enough hours in the day to justify the fees Dr. Angel S. Martin collected from Medicare. On fifty-three separate days, the Newton, Iowa, general surgeon billed the government health plan for the elderly and other insurers for medical services that would have taken him more than 24 hours to complete, according to federal prosecutors.

The hours made the case a slam dunk for prosecutors. But they weren’t Martin’s only problem. Many patients recalled the briefest of visits with the doctor, even though Martin routinely billed Medicare for long, complicated treatments.

Every year, Medicare pays doctors more than $30 billion for treating patients. For office visits, doctors must choose one of five escalating billing scales — called Evaluation and Management codes — that most closely reflect the complexity of the treatment and the time it takes. The fees range from about $20 to about $140. Read more ..


Palestine on the Edge

Gaza Prepares to Declare Independence (From Palestine)

September 14th 2012

Gaza Tunnel Smuggler

It's no secret that Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist faction that controls Gaza, has long considered exchanging its underground smuggling tunnels to Egypt for a policy of above-board trade. What has only recently begun to register is that Hamas may be contemplating a bolder political gambit still: Cutting its financial ties to both Israel and the Palestinian Authority government in the West Bank, in preparations for declaring full independence on behalf of Gaza.

Al-Hayat first reported the story on July 22. The London-based Arabic daily noted that Hamas was poised to sever its limited economic ties with Israel, open a free trade zone with Egypt at the Rafah border crossing, and declare itself liberated. Before the story could gain traction, however, senior Hamas leaders Mahmoud al-Zahhar and Salah al-Bardawil quickly disavowed the reports.

But senior Gazans quietly acknowledged to me in recent meetings that Hamas, a Muslim Brotherhood splinter group, and President Mohamed Morsi's new Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, are actively discussing this controversial idea. Hamas has approached the question patiently since conquering the Gaza Strip from the Palestinian Authority in 2007. Now, after a half decade of economic hardship resulting from the Gaza embargo, the Hamas government appears to believe that 1.7 million Gazans would welcome the free flow of goods above nearly all else. Read more ..


Argentina on Edge

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner: Don't Cry for Me Argentina

September 14th 2012

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was elected to presidential office in 2007 with the assumption she would be a mere puppet to her husband, Néstor, the previous president. Since then, after being unexpectedly widowed, she has proven those criticisms to be grossly off the mark.

Cristina has proven herself to be a strong and determined leader of Argentina, comparable to the iconic female political figures of Eva Perón and Hillary Clinton, recognizable women who have shaped the political process of a continent. In 2012, Forbes magazine named Kirchner 16th on its list of the world’s 100 most powerful women. She has shown that her decisive changes to Argentine politics have rippled throughout Latin America. This is perhaps most evident in the nationalization of the formerly private Spanish oil company YPF, done in the hope of revitalizing the Argentine economic sector. While foreign critics have dismissed this reform as a desperate move, Argentina’s economy appears to be growing with the country greatly supporting the measure. Read more ..


Edge of Terrorism

What to Do When Things Go Really Badly

September 13th 2012

Bomb explosion

Over the past several weeks, we have discussed a number of different situations that can present a common problem to people caught up in them. First, we discussed how domestic terrorism remains a persistent threat in the United States, and that despite improvements in security measures since 2001, soft targets still remain vulnerable to attack by terrorist actors driven by a variety of motivations. Due to the devolution of the jihadist threat toward the grassroots, there is also a growing trend of jihadist actors using armed assaults instead of bombing attacks. We also discussed the continuing problem of workplace violence, and finally, we discussed last week evacuation plans for expatriates due to natural disaster, civil unrest or war.

People caught in any of these situations could find themselves either confronted by an armed assailant or actually coming under fire in an active shooter scenario. Of course, there are other situations where people can find themselves confronted by armed assailants, from street muggings and carjackings to bank robberies. Because of this, we thought it might be useful to our readers to discuss such situations and how to react when caught in one. Read more ..


The Iranian Threat

Iran's Quds Force Mission: Destroy the Jewish state

September 13th 2012

Quds Force

The ongoing series of terrorist attacks and attempted terrorist attacks in countries throughout the world in recent years is prima facie evidence that Israel is being singled out for total destruction using any means necessary by Iran's global terrorism network. The Iranian government's tool for the annihilation of the Jewish State is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's elite unit the Quds Force, analysts at the Israeli terrorism think-tank the Meir Amit Information Center said.

The terrorist attacks are planned and directed by the Quds Force, while the Lebanese-based terrorist group Hezbollah carries out the actual attacks performing the function of the Quds Force's main proxy-militia abroad.

"In our assessment, the terrorist attack targeting the bus of Israeli tourists in Bulgaria was carried out by Hezbollah as part of the Iranian campaign and from their point of view was the most successful to date. Five Israelis, the Bulgarian bus driver and the terrorist were killed and 36 Israeli tourists were wounded," stated the Meir Amit analysts. Read more ..


The Edge of Medicine

Indian Case Could Impact Availability of Generic Drugs

September 12th 2012

India Doctor

India’s generic drug industry began to flourish in the 1970s when India disallowed the patenting of medicines, enabling domestic companies, which did not have to invest in research, to make copies of branded drugs at a far lower cost. In 2005, India allowed patenting, but set the bar higher for patents than other countries.

Novartis went to court in 2006 after India turned down a patent for Gleevek - a medicine used to treat leukemia. Indian authorities argue it is not a new medicine, but a modification of an earlier one, and therefore not eligible for a patent under Indian law.

The head of the Swiss pharmaceutical company in India, Ranjit Shahani, says the legal challenge is about protecting intellectual property rights. “Novartis is seeking clarity to see how innovation will be valued and protected in India," said Shahani. "Now Gleevek has received patent protection in 40 countries across the world including China, Taiwan and Russia. And truly you know, protecting intellectual property advances the practice of medicines and brings hope to patients.” Read more ..


Iran's Nukes

Did Canada Close Iran Embassy to Protect Its Diplomats Should Israel Strike?

September 12th 2012

Iran Nuclear

One theory of why Canada now decided to close its Embassy down in Tehran is that it wants its diplomats out of the country in the event of an Israeli military strike, which may be getting closer (although Israeli media has been reporting that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is now in favur of holding off.)

I have no way of knowing if the possibility of a military strike is a factor in Canada's decision, but it is interesting to note that Canada's decision comes shortly after Israeli and American media reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu had a row with U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro, expressing his frusteration at what he sees as President Obama's dropping the ball and not defining clearly enough what the "red lines" are, such if Iran breaches them the United States would be willing to respond militarily. It it possible that the Harper government, on seeing that Netanyahu lost it with Shapiro has made the assessment, (or has inside knowledge) that an Israeli strike is pending ? For anyone who wants to get an inside view of the undiplomatic and "explosive" tones that were heard between Netanyahu and Dan shapiro, read in full Jeffrey Goldberg's piece about what Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers said occured at the meeting. Read more ..


Iran's Nukes

Redlines and Iran's Beating of War Drums

September 11th 2012

Simurgh booster

For the past several months, the Israelis have been threatening to attack Iranian nuclear sites as the United States has pursued a complex policy of avoiding complete opposition to such strikes while making clear it doesn't feel such strikes are necessary. At the same time, the United States has carried out maneuvers meant to demonstrate its ability to prevent the Iranian counter to an attack -- namely blocking the Strait of Hormuz. While these maneuvers were under way, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said no "redline" exists that once crossed by Iran would compel an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Israeli government has long contended that Tehran eventually will reach the point where it will be too costly for outsiders to stop the Iranian nuclear program.

The Israeli and American positions are intimately connected, but the precise nature of the connection is less clear. Israel publicly casts itself as eager to strike Iran but restrained by the United States, though unable to guarantee it will respect American wishes if Israel sees an existential threat emanating from Iran. The United States publicly decries Iran as a threat to Israel and to other countries in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, but expresses reservations about military action out of fears that Iran would respond to a strike by destabilizing the region and because it does not believe the Iranian nuclear program is as advanced as the Israelis say it is. Read more ..


Palestine on Edge

Why Indeed Has There Not Been Another Palestinian Intifada?

September 10th 2012

Bank of Palestine

Is the Arab Spring an 'intifada'? And why haven't the Palestinians joined in?

The intifada or 'throwing off' was the spontaneous Palestinians grassroots rebellion against Israel that began in the fall of 1987. Much like the beginnings of the Arab Spring in Tunisia, the rebellion spread quickly in the pre-internet days across the Palestinian territories and Gaza and captured the world's attention. Within a few short years, however, it was usurped by the PLO and Yasir Arafat. As befitting the Internet age, the Arab Spring has now largely been usurped more quickly by Islamists around the Arab world.

For the Palestinians the Arab Spring has produced hard choices. While the star of Arab nationalism has fallen everywhere, among the Palestinians in the West Bank it is still alive, kept on life support by international aid, the Israeli military, and an unquantifiable sense of dread at the prospect of a Hamas takeover. Hamas has been regnant in Gaza since 2007. Repression and immiseration have resulted. The choice for Palestinians in the West Bank is stark and all stakeholders have made the Faustian bargain to retain the repressive and kleptocratic Palestinian Authority over the murderous and theocratic Hamas. An intifada by choice seems unlikely there, but an accidental one cannot be dismissed. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

The Presidential Candidates’ Solutions to Making College More Affordable

September 9th 2012

College expenses

 "Help us work with colleges and universities to cut in half the growth of tuition costs over the next ten years. We can meet that goal together,” declared President Barack Obama last night at the Democratic National Convention.

The discussion about the rising costs of higher education in this country has been heating up with prices across all categories of institutions rising at a rate that is well above the rate of inflation for other goods.

Both President Obama and presidential hopeful Mitt Romney have expressed a commitment to making college more affordable for American students. However, the candidates have very different ideas about how best to reform the federal student aid program to achieve this common goal.

The reforms that Romney would likely put in place reflect a market based solution to this problem. He supports reforms that would make information about school quality more readily available to prospective students. Policies of this nature would allow prospective students to have a better understanding of the value that different programs provide.  Since informed students are less likely to over-pay for a degree this will coerce colleges to charge prices that reflect the actual value of their services. (The value of a degree should be measured in terms of the additional future earnings that it provides.)  An advantage of this system is that it keeps the government out of the game of policing schools. However, it also relies on students taking the responsibility to make decisions that are best for them. Read more ..


Islam's War Against Christianity

Nadarkhani Released, but Iranian Christians Still Persecuted

September 9th 2012

Pastor Nadarkhani Released

 Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani

After nearly three years of incarceration in an Iranian jail, where he awaited a death sentence for the charge of apostasy, Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani was finally released earlier today. The American Center for Law and Justice, an advocacy group that has done extraordinary work in raising Nadarkhani’s profile in the U.S. and internationally, published a photograph of the pastor emerging from the gates of the notorious Lakan prison in the north of Iran. As Nadarkhani’s children greeted him with flowers, he wore the bewildered smile of someone who can’t quite believe that his luck has suddenly changed.

The Iranian regime’s apologists in the United States, among them Trita Parsi, head of the National Iranian American Council, and Hillary Mann Leverett, a former Clinton administration advisor, will certainly trumpet Nadarkhani’s release as proof that Tehran is amenable to outside overtures. That is why we should remember, before we get too carried away with the image of a kinder, softer Iran, that Nadarkhani is not the only Christian who has been imprisoned for his beliefs. Read more ..


The New Egypt

The Current Egyptian Government: A Fragile Stability

September 8th 2012

Moslem Brotherhood

Egypt’s recently elected president, Mohamed Morsi, has been facing great difficulties, bringing to question his ability to govern. This all changed, however, after the terrorist incident in which 16 Egyptian soldiers on border patrol fell victim in the city of Rafah on the Israeli border. The president used this incident as an excuse to dismiss the key figures in the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), as well as the General Intelligence Service who were running the country’s affairs.

Where there previously had been doubts as to the new president’s competency, he came out of this a modern pharaoh, more competent and powerful that his predecessor Hosni Mubarak, especially after he nullified the constitutional declaration supplemented by SCAF, and announced a new declaration, without the approval of the people, giving himself the right to legislate.

There are those who believe that Morsi’s decisions were made within the framework of a conflict between the military council and the president as a member of the Muslim Brotherhood for control of the country. It is my conviction, however, that the struggle is essentially among army institutions, between those who supported Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shafiq’s presidential campaign, and those who supported the Muslim Brotherhood’s campaign as a way to diffuse the expected popular protests had a military candidate been elected. Had the military united behind Shafiq and threatened to try SCAF leaders, it might have restored the revolution to its rightful path. The Brotherhood was merely the spearhead in this conflict. Read more ..


Europe on Edge

Understanding the Radical Right in Europe

September 8th 2012

Golden Dawn - Greece

There is a continuing problem for researchers of the far right: namely, to define the terms and differentiate between the far right, the radical right, and the extreme right. However, in a sense, these definitions may be somewhat static and limiting as they can fail to reflect process and complexity.

The contemporary far right in Europe is rapidly moving away from the narrow ultranationalism that characterized it in the twentieth century toward a genuine and distinctive European agenda. This is evidenced in similar demands, growing liaison and coordination between national groups, and attempts to build supranational caucuses like that of the now defunct Identity, Tradition and Sovereignty group in the European Parliament, and the more recent European Social Movement.

The far right increasingly presents a transnational phenomenon, with some common, national, basic features. Two elements in particular are aiding these developments: the Schengen Agreement, which allows free access within the European Union, enabling all forms of cross-border travel, and the ever-increasing penetration of information and communication technologies, in particular the use of Web 2.0 social networking. Read more ..


Iran's Nukes

Israel May Defer on Attack if Obama Issues Red Lines

September 7th 2012

Obama and Nettanyahu

The Netanyahu government appears to be making a slow climbdown from recent talk of an imminent attack on Iran. Israeli television reported on Thursday night that if U.S. President Barack Obama sets out clear "red lines" on the Iran issue, it is unlikely that Israel will attack in the near future.

Such "red lines," which would, by definition, involve the threat of military force, have been rumored for several days, though Obama has yet to make any official announcement to that effect.

Israel's Channel 10 claimed in its Thursday night report that a source close to Netanyahu said that if, when Obama and Netanyahu meet in New York after Yom Kippur "Obama gives Israel the promised 'red lines' and his personal commitments, Israel will not attack Iran." It appears that Netanyahu expects to receive such commitments, as the source also said that an Israeli attack is "less and less likely." Read more ..


The Defense Edge

Is the Democratic Platform in Synch with the Public on National Defense?

September 6th 2012

Apache Helicopters

The Democratic party platform released in early September suggests that national security officials in a second Obama administration will attempt to leave outdated military projects behind, try to bolster the country’s international leadership, and try to control nuclear weapons materials—policies that match some but not all of the preferences expressed by members of both political parties in a May survey.

The platform, released September 4th, leaves plenty of wiggle room for the administration, eschewing hard numbers or strategic decisions in favor of generalities—a practice typical in platforms released at convention time that are heavy on rhetoric but light on specifics.

The 2012 platform is even more general than the Democrats’ 2008 version, which contained highly specific pledges of new aid to Afghanistan ($1 billion) and Israel ($30 billion) and called for increasing “the Army by 65,000 troops and the Marines by 27,000 troops.” Instead of looking forward, the focus of this year’s document is on what the Obama administration has already accomplished. Read more ..


The Iranian Threat

The Burning Oil Platform: Iran’s Threat to The West

September 6th 2012

It has become a commonplace that the United States and its allies went to war for a second time with Iraq not so much to relieve the Iraqi people of the yoke imposed by dictator Saddam Hussein but for oil, that fungible commodity on which modern life depends. Getting the oil to the United States is dependent on vital sea lanes and chokepoints in often unstable and dangerous parts of the world, thereby necessitating monitoring by the U.S. naval fleet and dozens of military installations overseas.

Consider what an interruption of the foreign oil supply could mean to the United States: Americans use approximately 19 million to 20 million barrels of oil per day, of which approximately half is imported. If 1 million barrels per day are lost, or suffer the type of havoc sustained from Hurricane Katrina, the federal government would open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which offers a mere six- to eight-week supply of unrefined crude oil. If the U.S. loses 1.5 million barrels per day, or approximately 7.5 percent, the government would ask allies in the 28-member International Energy Agency to tap their own Strategic Petroleum Reserves and provide other assistance. If 2 million barrels per day are lost for a protracted period, experts believe that the chaos in the country would be so astronomic as to beg estimation. Read more ..


Obama and Israel

Romney vs. Obama vis-a-vis Israel

September 5th 2012

Obama pointing finger at Netanyahu

"President Obama has thrown allies like Israel under the bus." That's what Mitt Romney, Republican candidate for president, said in the high-profile speech accepting his party's nomination last week, repeating a slang phrase for sacrificing a friend for selfish reasons. Romney had deployed this phrase before, for example in May 2011 and Jan. 2012. This criticism of Obama fits a persistent Republican critique. Specifically, several other recent presidential candidates used or endorsed the same "bus" formulation vis-à-vis Obama and Israel, including Herman Cain in May 2011, Rick Perry in Sept. 2011, Newt Gingrich in Jan. 2012, and Rick Santorum in Feb. 2012.

These Republican attacks on Obama's relations with Israel have several important implications for U.S. foreign policy. First, out of the many Middle East-related issues, Israel, and Israel alone, retains a permanent role in U.S. electoral politics, influencing how a significant number of voters - not just Jews but also Arabs, Muslims, Evangelical Christians, conservatives and liberals - vote for president. Read more ..


The Economy on Edge

Bleak Outlook for Youth Employment

September 4th 2012

Employee applications

A new report finds that 75 million young people are unemployed around the world. The study by the International Labor Organization suggests jobless rates among young people will worsen globally as the spillover of the euro crisis spreads from advanced to emerging economies. 

The International Labor Organization reports the global economic crisis is having a particularly devastating affect on people between the ages of 15 and 24 trying to enter the labor market.

The study finds the impact of the euro crisis is spreading beyond Europe and slowing down economies from East Asia to Latin America. It notes the situation is particularly severe in the Middle East and North Africa, where youth unemployment is above 25 percent and rising. Lead author of the report and head of the ILO Global Employment Trends Unit, Ekkehard Ernst, says the situation in the Middle East is projected to become even worse in the next five years. Read more ..


Latin America on Edge

Moscow and Washington Battle for Influence in the Western Hemisphere

September 4th 2012

Click to select Image

The current economic competition between the Russian Federation and the United States in the Western Hemisphere bears striking similarity to the political antagonism prevalent during the Cold War. This deep seated rivalry still influences world affairs, as the United Nations Security Council cannot enact any major decision without an agreement between those two powers. However, a pragmatic view of the world economy plays a greater role now in the determination of Russia’s priorities and strategies as it begins to catch up with the U.S. in its exposure to Latin American economic interests.

As of late, the Russian Federation has gained economic ground over the United States in various parts of the Latin American region. For example, Washington’s embargo on Cuba gives Russia the opportunity to fill in the economic hollows left by the “imperialist neighbor.” While Washington engages in very limited trade with its ancient foe, Russia-Cuban links have been growing stronger with each passing year. Recently, the Russian oil company Zarubezhneft announced its plan to invest $100 million USD in Cuba by 2025. Considering that deposits of Cuban oil are estimated to reach 20 billion barrels, the Russians’ investment plan appears as if it will bring considerable profits in the near future to both sides. Read more ..


Broken Labor

GAO Report Supports the Science Behind Black Lung Rule

September 3rd 2012

Coal miner

Research supports an Obama administration plan to reduce coal miners’ exposure to the dust that causes black lung, a much-anticipated Government Accountability Office report released Friday found. Last December, House Republicans inserted language into an appropriations bill requiring the study. No money could be used to implement a proposed coal mine dust rule until the GAO evaluated the research underpinning it, the rider said.

The GAO report lends support to one piece of the federal Mine Safety and Health Administration’s efforts to address a resurgence of black lung, particularly in parts of Appalachia. An investigation in July found that the disease has returned amid widespread cheating on required dust sampling by some mining companies and enforcement lapses by MSHA.

In October 2010, the agency proposed cutting in half the amount of dust to which miners could be exposed, but the proposal has drawn opposition from some in the mining industry and Congress. Some miners’ advocates worry the rule could die, as previous reform attempts have, if it isn’t finalized before the coming election. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Team Obama Predicts "Close" Race

September 2nd 2012

Obama

President Obama's campaign has downplayed expectations ahead of the Democratic National Convention next week, saying they expected to be locked in a close race against GOP nominee Mitt Romney until election day. "It's been a pretty steady race to date and we expect it will be in a pretty similar place following our convention," Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki told a press gaggle on Air Force One, en route to the president’s campaign rallies in Iowa. "We think it’s going to be close 'til the end. That's why we have such an active schedule. That's why the president is out there campaigning." Psaki’s comments about a packed campaign schedule between now and election day come after Obama reportedly complained last week about too much downtime. 

"Why am I having a short day?" he told adviser Valerie Jarrett on Wednesday, according to the Wall Street Journal. "There should be no short days." Psaki also said that the just completed Republican National Convention was more important for Romney than the Democratic meet would be for Obama. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Third-Party Candidates May Hurt Romney in Key States

September 1st 2012

Gary Johnson
Gary Johnson

Dark-horse presidential candidates Gary Johnson and Virgil Goode may not be household names, but with a little help from super PACs, they could peel away precious support from Republican Mitt Romney and possibly even President Barack Obama in some key state races.

The conservative Constitution Party, which seeks to “restore American jurisprudence to its Biblical foundations,” has nominated Goode, a former congressman from Virginia, for president, potentially taking votes away from Romney in what has become a presidential swing state.

Meanwhile, Johnson, a former two-term GOP governor of New Mexico who failed to win the 2012 Republican presidential nod, has been nominated by the Libertarian Party — a perch from which he could throw a wrench in the plans of both Obama and Romney in several swing states. Read more ..



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