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Operation Pillar of Defense

Considerations for an Israeli Ground Offensive on Gaza

November 15th 2012

Israeli tank and crew

The Israeli air force continues to bombard targets within the Gaza Strip, but thus far ground forces have not yet begun an incursion into the territory. Whether the current air campaign escalates to a ground assault will largely depend on the mission that the Israeli military is trying to accomplish.

Israel Defense Forces' official statements have emphasized that the goal is the severe degradation of Gaza militants' ability to launch rocket strikes, particularly the new Fajr-5 rockets that are purportedly capable of striking Tel Aviv.

Halting rocket attacks was also the mission during Operation Cast Lead, Israel's most recent large-scale military operation involving Gaza, which took place in late 2008 and early 2009 and consisted of an air campaign similar to the current one followed by a ground invasion. Examining how Operation Cast Lead developed could provide useful context for how an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza could unfold. Read more ..

Broken Borders

Prospects Improve for US Immigration Reform

November 15th 2012

US-Mexico Border

If elections are meant as an articulation of national will, then last week’s vote appears to have sent a message on the need for immigration reform - specifically what should be done about the estimated 12 million foreign nationals residing in the United States who entered the country illegally or overstayed their visas.

No, Americans did not vote directly on immigration reform, and the topic was barely mentioned on the campaign trail by President Barack Obama or his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. But the Republican Party clearly suffered at the ballot box as a result of its resistance to immigration reform.

During the presidential primaries, several Republican contenders took a hard line on the matter, blasting any measure that would provide a path to legal status as an amnesty for law breakers. Romney advocated a strategy of making life in America so difficult for illegals that they would opt to leave the country, or "self-deport." Read more ..

The Petraeus Scandel

CIA Covert Operations Compromised by Petraeus Indescretion

November 14th 2012


Breaking news stories on Tuesday and Wednesday focused on the misuse of former-director of the CIA Gen. David Petraeus’ email accounts, his mistress, Paula Broadwell, and her alleged possession of classified documents on her computer, which she may have stolen from her lover, and Broadwell's threatening emails to a third person.

Such serious security-related problems plaguing the director of the super-secret CIA is most troubling since he has complete access to information about covert operations, in addition to top secret intelligence, claim members of intelligence and counterterrorism organizations.

According to sources, the Obama Administration believes that covert action must be consistent with specific U.S. foreign policy objectives in a targeted area. Covert actions should be undertaken only where there is a compelling reason why U.S. involvement cannot be disclosed. Read more ..

Israel and Palestine

Palestinians Seek to Isolate Israel at the United Nations

November 14th 2012

Mahmoud Abbas at parliament
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas

If the Palestinians succeed in their bid for statehood at the United Nations later this month, they will use their new status to sue the Jewish state in international courts and seize air space for military activity.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas says he will pursue a statehood bid at the world body despite opposition from the United States and Israel. The Palestinians are seeking observer status as a nation, something the U.N.'s General Assembly can grant with a simple majority vote.

According to observers, Abbas and the Palestinians have already secured that majority. However, the reaction to their new statehood status will be onerous. The U.S. could cut up to $500 million in annual aid and the State of Israel has said it may withhold millions of dollars in tax revenue it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority, based in Ramallah. Read more ..

Obama's Second Term

U.S. Foreign Policy: Room to Regroup

November 13th 2012

Obama State dept

President Barack Obama has won re-election. However, in addition to all of the constraints on him that I discussed last week, he won the election with almost half the people voting against him. His win in the Electoral College was substantial -- and that's the win that really matters -- but the popular vote determines how he governs, and he will govern with one more constraint added to the others. The question is whether this weakens him or provides an opportunity. That is not determined by his policies but by the strategic situation, which, in my view, gives the United States some much-needed breathing room.

The Structure of the International System
At the moment, the international system is built on three pillars: the United States, Europe and China. Europe, if it were united, would be very roughly the same size as the United States in terms of economy, population and potential military power. China is about a third the size of the other two economically, but it has been the growth engine of the world, making it more significant than size would indicate. Read more ..

The Edge of Terrorism

Why Did Al-Qaeda Target Ambassador Stevens?

November 12th 2012

Amb Chris Stevens

Most of the questions related to the Benghazi debacle are about the mechanics, both offensive and defensive. What did the White House know and when? What assets were available to the military? Did someone order a stand down, and if so, who? Why was "the video" blamed long after the administration knew the truth — and didn't the administration know the truth from the beginning? If it didn't, why didn't it?

All reasonable questions, but a generally unasked one deserves attention: "Why did al-Qaeda want to kill Ambassador Chris Stevens?"

The ambassador had good relations with some of the most extreme Libyan militias, including those with al-Qaeda ties. Did he upset them with something he did, or didn't do? Was the White House fully apprised of his connections and dealings with the militias? Was he killed because of something the administration told him to start doing or to stop doing. There are things we know and things upon which we must speculate, including the entry of surface-to-air missiles to the Levant. Read more ..

Oil Addiction

IEA Report Supports Obama Energy Policies

November 12th 2012

Keystone Pipeline

President Obama's top campaign consultant said an energy report released Monday that projects the U.S. as the world’s biggest oil producer by 2020 shows the president's policies are working.

The International Energy Agency's voluminous report on worldwide energy markets noted that the “Energy renaissance in the United States is redrawing the global energy map.”

David Axelrod, Obama’s former senior adviser, cited the report in a tweet that praised the president’s energy stance. “All-of-the-above strategy moves America closer to energy independence,” Axelrod tweeted Monday. Republicans have pilloried Obama on energy policy. They say the president has restricted oil-and-gas development on federal lands while favoring green energy subsidies for technology that Republicans contend is uncompetitive and a waste of taxpayer dollars. Read more ..

Islam on Edge

Behind The Lines: The Sunni-Shi’a Arc of Conflict

November 11th 2012

Bahrain enraged protesters

Bahrain this week accused the Lebanese Hezbollah group of responsibility for a series of bombings in the Bahraini capital Manama.

The five bomb blasts, in the Adliya and Gudaybiya districts of the city, came amid renewed protests by members of the island’s 70 percent Shi’a majority against the Sunni Khalifa monarchy. Two Asian cleaning workers were killed.

Information Minister Samira Ibrahim bin Rajab issued the accusation against Hezbollah. She said that the terrorists were operating according to principles set by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and further accused the Iranian media of inciting against the monarchy. The minister did not offer any concrete evidence to back up her accusation of Hezbollah’s involvement. Official Bahraini claims of Iranian interference in the internal affairs of the island are nothing new. Read more ..

The Edge of Terrorism

Petraeus Resignation Won't Interfere with Benghazi Probe

November 10th 2012

Libyan rioters at US consulate Sep 2012 #1

In response to the surprise announcement on Friday that Gen. David Petraeus officially resigned from his position as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, many observers wondered if he would still participate in the House and Senate probes into the tragic Benghazi, Libya, terrorist attack.

The popular military leader shocked many when he revealed he had an extramarital affair with West Point graduate and author Paula Broadwell, who had written a book about Gen. Petraeus' service in Afghanistan. There are some within the intelligence community, the military and law enforcement assigned to counterterrorism units who accused Petraeus of failing to respond decisively to calls for assistance from CIA operatives posted in Libya amid the terrorist attacks on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi on Sept. 11, 2012. Read more ..

The Defense Edge

Petraeus Admits Affair, Resigns from CIA Amid Questions About Timing

November 9th 2012


At the height of several investigations into the events of Sept. 11, 2012, in Benghazi, Libya, Gen. David Petraeus, the Director of Central Intelligence, announced he tendered his resignation to President Barack Obama on Friday.

The former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan claimed the reason for his quitting is a secret extra-marital affair, but he didn't name the person with whom he shared an illicit relationship. However, some observers are suspicious of the timing of his resignation.

"Yesterday afternoon, I went to the White House and asked the President to be allowed, for personal reasons, to resign from my position as D/CIA. After being married for over 37 years, I showed extremely poor judgment by engaging in an extramarital affair. Such behavior is unacceptable, both as a husband and as the leader of an organization such as ours. This afternoon, the President graciously accepted my resignation," Petraeus said in a prepared statement. Read more ..

The Vote Aftermath

Bad Day for Super Donors

November 9th 2012

Money can't buy happiness, nor can it buy an election, apparently.

The top donors to super PACs in 2012 did not fare well — casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, the No. 1 super PAC contributor with more than $53 million in giving, backed eight losers at this writing.

Adelson was top backer of the pro-Mitt Romney Restore Our Future super PAC, with $20 million in donations. Romney lost to President Barack Obama. In addition, Adelson's contributions to super PACs backing U.S. Senate candidates in Florida, Virginia and New Jersey were also for naught. He was not the only conservative billionaire who had a bad night.

Contran Corp. CEO Harold Simmons, (No. 2), homebuilder Bob Perry (No. 3) and TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, (No.4), also bet on Romney. Collectively, the trio gave $13.4 million to Restore Our Future, and Ricketts’ super PAC, Ending Spending Action Fund, spent an additional $9.9 million helping Romney’s failed bid.

The super donor winner of the night was Newsweb Corp. CEO Fred Eychaner (No. 5). Eychaner gave $3.5 million to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action through the most recent filing period, which ended Oct. 17, according to Federal Election Commission records. Read more ..

Obama and Israel

After Obama Wins Second Term, Debate Shifts to Future of U.S.-Israel Relationship

November 8th 2012

Obama and Israel

Capping a race that on a national level was largely defined by the economy but in the Jewish community turned into an extended debate over which candidate would steer the best course for the U.S.-Israel relationship, President Barack Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney to earn a second term.

Obama won 69 percent of the Jewish vote, according to a CNN exit poll, representing a nine-point drop from the 78 percent he garnered in 2008 exit polls.

National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC) President and CEO David A. Harris, speaking exclusively with JNS.org after major television networks called the race for Obama on Tuesday night, said he “and the clear majority of American Jews” are “reassured by having President Obama in office for another four years.” Read more ..

The Vote Aftermath

Obama Wins Election but not a Mandate

November 7th 2012

Obama victory

Barack Hussein Obama, the first Kenyan-American to occupy the presidency, was re-elected on November 6 followed one of the most divisive campaigns in history and virtual deluge of advertising. Republican Mitt Romney lost Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin: essential battleground states where the two presidential contenders had spent much of their time and effort. Obama also won a narrow margin in Florida as Election Night drew to a close. The incumbent president won at least 303 electoral votes in the contest, as opposed to 270 for Romney.

Voters were still waiting in line at the polls in the western states as raucous cheers of joy emerged from Obama’s campaigners at their headquarters in Chicago at 11:20 p.m. local time. As votes were still being tabulated, the victory was clear but not as comprehensive as Obama’s first election four years ago. Speaking to a wildly cheering crowd in Chicago, the president thanked his campaign team and assured his listeners that the course set by the Founding Fathers was still on the right track. “Tonight in this election, you, the American people, reminded us that while our road has been hard, while our journey has been long, we have picked ourselves up, we have fought our way back,” adding “We know in our hearts that for the United States of America, the best is yet to come.” Read more ..

China on Edge

The 18th Party Congress: A Setback for President Hu?

November 6th 2012

Chinese soldier at Tienamen Square

Two days after the U.S. presidential election, 2270 delegates will gather in Beijing for the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress. The meeting will not only select a new generation of leaders but will also endorse the Party’s new political agenda. After being hit by a slew of scandals, the Communist Party is doing all it can to make sure all “unstable elements” are nipped in the bud. Security is tight not just in Beijing but in other parts of China – I heard stories of the police stopping cars in a southern province to search for knives. When one of the drivers dared to ask why, he was simply told “shiba da” (18th Party Congress). The New York Times is still being blocked for publishing the Wen Jiabao story. Searching for information on any of the Chinese leaders (and their wives) from Google Hong Kong (the one functioning Google site on the mainland) would only lead to a result stating, “Internet Explorer cannot display the webpage.” In addition, short messages sent via cell phones in China are being automatically blocked if it contains any names of the Chinese leaders. Read more ..

Israel and Palestine

No Change in the Offing on Palestinian Position on the Right of Return

November 5th 2012

UNRWA Refugee Camp

Claims that Palestinian Authority chairman  has apparently relinquished the right of return are baseless in light of the clarifications provided by Abbas himself, in which he called the return a “sacred right” and affirmed his full commitment to the basic Palestinian positions. The interview by Abbas to Israel’s Channel 2 TV, broadcast on Nov. 2, 2012, stirred up a large-scale political storm both in Israel and the Palestinian arena with Abbas’ statements interpreted as a relinquishment of the right of return.

Abbas said in the interview that, as a native of the Israeli town of Safed, he desires to visit the town but not to live there. He further remarked that “for me, Palestine is the ’67 borders with East Jerusalem; I am a refugee, I live in Ramallah, the West Bank and Gaza is Palestine, all the rest is Israel.”

The Israeli political leadership was in no hurry to lend credence to Abbas’ supposed readiness to give up the Palestinian demand for a return. Hamas, for its part, accused him of a treasonous violation of basic principles, with senior figures in the movement claiming he had in effect relinquished the right of return. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Obama and Romney Nearly Matched in Battleground States

November 5th 2012

Obama and Romney road show

The long, hard-fought campaign to be president of the United States for the next four years finally comes to an end with the two viable candidates visiting several states on November 5 for one last attempt to break what polls indicate is a nearly deadlocked race.

Only a handful of the country's 50 states are considered to be virtually tied, led by Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin, along with Virginia, Colorado and Iowa. The small state of New Hampshire joins those six as states where neither candidate is considered to have a clear lead ahead of the Tuesday Niovember 6 election. On November 5, incumbent President Barack Obama returns to Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio to hold political events, before heading to his hometown of Chicago, Illinois where he will be on election night. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Former Gov. Barbour Says Hurricane Sandy Broke Romney’s Momentum

November 4th 2012

Mitt Romney

Former Gov. Haley Barbour (R-Miss.) said Sunday that Hurricane Sandy stopped Mitt Romney’s momentum in the presidential race after the candidates temporarily left the trail and the media focused on the superstorm. “The hurricane is what broke Romney's momentum,” Barbour said on CNN’s “State of the Union.

“I don't think there's any question about it,” he added. “Any day that the news media is not talking about jobs and the economy, taxes and spending, deficit and debt, 'ObamaCare' and energy, is a good day for Barack Obama.” Other Republican lawmakers and pundits were less forceful in their assessments of Sandy’s impact on the presidential race, but several said it likely would have some impact.

President Obama has received a favorable reception from the public for his response to Sandy. Obama also received high praise from Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.), a prominent Romney surrogate, for his handling of the storm, and the two toured the New Jersey coastline together on Wednesday. Former George W. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd said on ABC’s “This Week” that Christie’s embrace of Obama may have done more for the president than his response to the hurricane itself. Read more ..

Inside Israel

The Israeli R&D Model--Why it Works

November 4th 2012

Israel Airport

The innovations that will drive a knowledge-based economy and employ the next generation of high-skilled workers require a national commitment to research and development, and no nation has made this a higher priority than Israel. The country of 8 million invests more money in R&D per GDP than any other. And while the United States still leads the world in total R&D spending, it ranks ninth when economies are weighted.

Israel has received no shortage of praise for its innovative culture in recent years, a success perhaps best articulated by former CFR fellow Daniel Senor in his book Start-Up Nation. In addition to the highest R&D to GDP, Israel also boasts the most start-up companies per capita, and the most scientists and technicians per capita, according to government figures. Read more ..

Israel and Palestine

Abbas Backtracks on 'Right of Return' Statements--Tells Al-Hayyat He Was Expressing Personal View

November 4th 2012

Mahmoud Abbas at parliament

Just two days after suggesting that he might give up on the so-called "right of return" for Palestinian refugees, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas backtracked Saturday, telling Al-Hayyat that he was only expressing his personal views.

As Ha'aretz reports: "What I said about Safed is my personal stance. It means nothing about giving up the right of return," he said. "No one would give up their right of return. But all those international formulas, especially that of 194, speak of a just and agreed-upon solution to the refugee issue, and 'agreed-upon' means on the part of Israel."

On Thursday, Abbas told Israel's Channel 2 that he envisioned two states for two peoples. "Palestine now for me is the ’67 borders," he said, "with East Jerusalem as its capital." He insisted that he has no territorial demands on Israel beyond this, and that he believes the "West Bank and Gaza is Palestine and the other parts are Israel." Read more ..

The Iranian Threat

Iran Sanctions Biting But Nuclear Program Progressing

November 4th 2012

Iranian Rial Close-Up

With the sanctions on Iran tightening in recent months, its leadership including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the heads of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been trying to project a business-as-usual atmosphere and underscore that the Iranian people are capable of coping with the “ineffective sanctions” as they have been doing successfully for more than thirty years of the revolution, during which they have stood firm against “the hostility of the United States and the West.” They reiterate that Iran’s nuclear program is only an excuse for imposing the sanctions, whereas the real reason is the West’s desire to contain Iran’s growing influence on the rapidly changing regional reality, especially in light of the Islamic Awakening (as Iran calls the Arab Spring), and to try and sway the results of Iran’s June 2013 elections.

In actuality, the harsher the sanctions – particularly their dramatic effect on Iran’s revenues from crude-oil exports, which are a crucial part of the revenues on which Iran’s national budget depends – the greater their impact on Iran’s economy and society. Read more ..

The Battle for Syria

Syria and the Next U.S. Administration

November 3rd 2012

Anti Assad insurgents

During a trip to Lebanon earlier this month, outspoken Druze leader Walid Jumblatt complained bitterly to me about the absence of a serious US policy that would end the senseless killing and destruction in Syria. Jumblatt was right. The Obama Administration's Syria policy since the beginning of the uprising has demonstrated a real lack of leadership and sense of urgency.

Even before the popular revolt, the Administration's policy of trying to diplomatically engage with the clearly irredeemable dictator was misguided. But over the last nineteen months, this early Administration misstep was compounded -- first by opposing the militarization of the intifada, then by focusing efforts on the hapless Syrian National Council, and later by outsourcing the lead on Syrian policy to the Turks, the French, and finally the United Nations. Read more ..

Israel and Gaza

Powder Keg in Gaza

November 2nd 2012

Hamas protester

The violent blows exchanged between Israel and armed Islamist groups in Gaza over the past few weeks mark a dangerous shift. The pattern of occasional clashes established after Israel's 2008-2009 Operation Cast Lead has given way to protracted fire with very short lulls. Although neither Israel nor Hamas wants the situation to escalate into a major confrontation, things could ultimately get out of hand as jihadist groups step up their violent activities.

The primary engine behind this deterioration is the growth of armed jihadist groups in Gaza over the past few years. These groups, many consisting of former Hamas members, are ideologically and sometimes organizationally affiliated with al-Qaeda and do not feel bound by Hamas ceasefire rules regarding Israel. Rather, they closely cooperate with Sinai jihadists to plan and carry out terrorist attacks against Israel.

The main jihadist groups currently operating in Gaza are Jaish al-Islam, Jund Ansar Allah, al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, and Ansar al-Sunna; the latter two are also part of an umbrella framework called the "Shura Council of Jihad Fighters in Greater Jerusalem." Jaish al-Islam, led by Mumtaz Dughmush, participated in the 2006 abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, among other incidents. Read more ..

Colombia on Edge

Decades of Bloodshed on the Line as Colombia Opens Peace Talks with FARC Once Again

November 2nd 2012

FARC Terrorists
FARC Terrorist Army

The latest peace talks between the president of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (People’s Army, FARC-EP), a guerrilla movement, have been the center of attention in the Latin American media for weeks. Given the length of the conflict, Colombian nationals and the international observers in the region are anxious to approach and resolve some of the central issues that have perpetuated the violence plaguing the country. The General Agreement for the Termination of the Conflict and the Construction of a Stable and Lasting Peace, a six-page document issued by the Colombian government and FARC, contains basic rules and the topics that are scheduled to be discussed among the involved parties. According to this document, the matters that are subject to be examined are agrarian development policy, political participation, drug trafficking, the status of victims, and the end of the conflict itself. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Where Obama and Romney Stand on Key Foreign Policy Issues

November 2nd 2012


Here's a look at where President Barack Obama, a Democrat, and Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney stand on key foreign policy issues:

Defense spending
President Obama, as a result of a 2011 deficit reduction agreement, could face an automatic federal budget cut of more than $100 billion at the end of the year if there is no compromise agreement with Republicans. The plan, known as sequestration, slows the rate of U.S. defense spending. During the foreign policy presidential debate, Obama said his military budget proposal would not be "reducing" spending but "maintaining" it. He accused Romney of proposing military spending that had not been sought by military leaders.

Romney wants to reverse what he calls "Obama-era defense cuts." The former Massachusetts governor said his goal would be to set core defense spending, which includes funds for military personnel operations, procurement and research and development, at a minimum of 4 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product. During an October presidential debate, Romney defended his plans to build a larger military by cutting spending on government programs, including the president's health care plan which critics call "Obamacare." Read more ..

Gaza on Edge

The Meaning of the Emir's Gaza Visit

November 1st 2012

Emir Qatar Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani & Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh

The emir of Qatar, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, last week became the first head of state to visit the Gaza Strip since Hamas took control over the area in 2007. While al-Thani used the visit to promise $400 million in aid to Gaza for various building projects, the emir's trip was as much for his and Hamas's political gains as it was humanitarian causes.

For Qatar, which has long tried to play an influential role in issues pertaining to Palestinians and the wider region as a whole, embracing Hamas is seemingly part of a larger plan to undercut Shi'ite Iran's influence in the region in light of the changes caused by the Arab uprisings. From arming the rebels in Libya to possibly now doing the same for those in Syria, to showing an increased focus on Hamas, Qatar is working to strengthen parties and relations not in Iran's interest. Specifically, if Tehran loses Hamas, it loses its strategically placed ally sitting on the border with both Israel and Egypt. Read more ..

The Iranian Threat

Is Israeli Defense Minister Taking Softer Stand On Iran?

November 1st 2012

Ehud Barak

In a world that's used to hearing strong rhetoric from Israel regarding Iran's nuclear program, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's interviews this week with British media seemed discordant.

Speaking to Britain's "The Daily Telegraph," Barak said that Iran had used up to one-third of its enriched uranium to make fuel rods for a medical research reactor. And that by doing so, it had delayed "the moment of truth" when Iran will be able to develop nuclear weapons "by eight to 10 months."

Barak could only speculate on Tehran's motives for the move, saying that possibly the ruling ayatollahs wanted to reduce tensions over the issue until after the November 6 presidential election in the United States. Or perhaps, he said, Tehran was attempting to convince the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it's cooperating with demands regarding the program. Iran has insisted that its nuclear program is for exclusively peaceful purposes and points out that it -- unlike Israel -- has signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Read more ..

The Iranian Threat

Iranian Money Laundering Network Running Through Vienna

November 1st 2012

Dollar to Rial Exchange

According to reports in the Austrian news magazine "Profil" and the British "Telegraph", the Iranian regime uses Austrian banks to launder money in order to circumvent the sanctions and to provide technology for its nuclear program. A representative of the Iranian Center for Innovation and Technology Cooperation (CITC) has been in Vienna as recently as September. CITC is closely related to the office of President Ahmadinejad and has been sanctioned by the US due to its direct involvement in Iran's nuclear and missile program.

STOP THE BOMB, a European coalition which works towards the enactment of economic and political sanctions against the Iranian Islamist regime, has criticized the lack of action by the Austrian authorities: "Apparently, the authorities knew about the years of excessive traveling of a representative of the CITC, without taking an interest," says Simone Dinah Hartmann, STB's spokesperson. "We demand that this case and the general involvement of Austrian banks be fully investigated and conclusions be drawn. The latest reports prove that only a solid EU travel ban for all representatives of the Iranian regime can prevent Iran from continuing to procure critical components for its nuclear program and laundering money in Europe", Hartmann added. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Federal Reserve Bank and Interest Rates Biased toward the GOP?

November 1st 2012

Federal Reserve

With the elections less than a week away, it's worth considering that the party of the president influences the policy behavior of the Federal Reserve Bank, according to a new University of Michigan study.

The Federal Reserve Bank increases interest rates before the presidential elections when Democrats are in office, but lowers the rates when Republicans control the White House. The independent bank finds it easier to accomplish its policy goals when Republicans control the White House than when Democrats do, the researchers say.

"The behavior we have observed is consistent with the possibility that the Fed seeks to aid the election and re-election of Republican presidents," said U-M political scientist William Clark, lead author of the study appearing in an upcoming issue of Economics & Politics. Clark and U-M doctoral student Vincent Arel-Bundock examined the Federal Funds Rates from 1951 to 2008—a period in which a Republican has occupied the White House nearly two-thirds of the time. Read more ..

Islam On Edge

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood Plan Belligerent Pan-Islamic Super-State

October 31st 2012

Qaradaqi in Cairo

Recent comments by the head of the Muslim Brotherhood [MB], the winner of the recent elections in Egypt, and others, provide yet another jolting reminder of the ruling party's plans for the Middle East.

With the presidency under its control, members of the MB apparently believe they must oversee a comprehensive process of Islamization of the Egyptian state and society, before they can turn their sights on their final goal, the creation of a pan-Islamic super-state that will encompass the region, and then wage war on Israel.

In an October 19 Egyptian Channel One television broadcast, made available by the invaluable MEMRI, Egypt's President can be seen deep in prayer. The prayer session included a sermon by Futouh Abd Al-Nabi Mansour, a cleric in charge of religious endowment in the Matrouh governorate of northwest Egypt. Mansour called out to the worshipers: "O Allah, destroy the Jews and their supporters." [Note: The call takes on anti-Semitic tones rather than hiding behind the usual code word of "Zionists." – the Editor]. The call to destroy the Jews did not disturb Morsi's prayers. (See "Egyptian President Morsi Joins Preacher in Prayer for Dispersal of the Jews," Middle East Media Research Institute, Video Clip No. 3614, October 19, 2012) Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

A Historical Perspective on the Current Presidential Race

October 30th 2012

romney buttons

The U.S. presidential election will be held a week from today, and if the polls are correct, the outcome will be extraordinarily close. Many say that the country has never been as deeply divided. In discussing the debates last week, I noted how this year's campaign is far from the most bitter and vitriolic. It might therefore be useful also to consider that while the electorate at the moment appears evenly and deeply divided, unlike what many say, that does not reveal deep divisions in our society -- unless our society has always been deeply divided.

Since 1820, the last year an uncontested election was held, most presidential elections have been extremely close. Lyndon B. Johnson received the largest percentage of votes any president has ever had in 1964, taking 61.5 percent of the vote. Three other presidents broke the 60 percent mark: Warren G. Harding in 1920, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 and Richard Nixon in 1972. Read more ..

Jordan on Edge

Is Jordan's Next Leader from the Muslim Brotherhood with the Assistance of Washington?

October 29th 2012

Muslim Brotherhood Jordan

It might be helpful now to start wondering what sort of ideas Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood, and its leader, Controller General Sheikh Hamam Sai'd, will advance if they seize power in Jordan -- possibly with the blessing and encouragement of the United States.

Sheikh Sai'd, of Palestinian origin, was elected to the leadership if Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood in 2008 by its hardline faction. They support a partnership with Hamas and the overthrow of Middle Eastern leaders who side with the United States. The prominent Jordanian journalist, Osama Al-Rantisi, published an article on July 14, 2011, in the Jordanian daily newspaper, Al-ghad, in which he alleged that Sai'd had held a meeting in Turkey with "recently-retired officers from the CIA and the internal counter-intelligence and security agency, the MI5." Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

The Size of the Navy Matters

October 29th 2012


As he showed in the final presidential debate, President Obama's understanding of the U.S. Navy—or for that matter, any navy—is suboptimal. His explanation about Navy carriers "where planes land on them," and "ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines," left out the largest single group of naval combatants: surface ships. The omission is important because of surface ships' ability to defend against ballistic missiles and their pivotal role in protecting carriers and submarines. Surface ships also carry the weight of visiting foreign ports, showing the flag, and establishing and maintaining cooperative relationships with other navies around the world. These tasks have in common the goal of reassuring allies, making new friends, and ultimately preserving an international order favorable to the self-governance and classically liberal principles for which the U.S. stands. The same tasks are all conducted during peace and deliberately aimed at preserving it. Read more ..

The Iranian Threat

That Strange New York Times Report About Secret U.S. – Iran Talks

October 29th 2012

Iran-US Hatred

In one of the strangest articles on the relations between the U.S. and Iran, the New York Times reported on October 20 that Washington and Tehran had reached an agreement to hold one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. The sources that provided the story, according to the newspaper, were “Obama administration officials.” They added that Iran only insisted that the proposed negotiations be held after the U.S. elections.

Yet in the sixth paragraph of the very same article in which Obama administration officials disclose the U.S.-Iranian agreement, the White House issued a firm denial that any final agreement had been reached. National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor released a statement saying: “It’s not true that the United States and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks or any meeting after the American elections.” Read more ..

The Edge of Crime

Sanctions on MS-13: Not Enough but a Good First Step

October 28th 2012

MS-13 Tat

President Obama and Governor Romney may have been arguing over the strength of sanctions on Iran, but there is another set of sanctions that the Obama administration has enacted on a global threat which would likely win Romney’s approval: sanctions against international criminal groups.

In July 2011, the White House issued an executive order sanctioning four transnational organized crime groups: the Brothers’ Circle (a Eurasian group spanning the former Soviet Union, Middle East, Africa, and Latin America); the Camorra (an Italian criminal group that operates international counterfeiting rings); the Yakuza (a Japanese criminal group with affiliates in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere that claims as many as eighty thousand members and facilitates sexual slavery and white collar crime); and Los Zetas (a Mexican criminal organization that is blamed for tens of thousands of deaths and widespread drug trafficking throughout the Americas). Read more ..

South Korea on Edge

Global Korea in International Security: Why It Is Likely to Last

October 28th 2012

South Korean marines

The agenda for the annual U.S.-ROK Security Consultative Meeting to be held this week in Washington between South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin and his U.S. counterpart, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, will inevitably focus on how to keep the Korean peninsula stable against potential North Korean provocations. However, with South Korea’s decision to contribute resources to a variety of international peacekeeping and stabilization missions, U.S.-ROK security cooperation has gone global.

My new CFR ebook, with chapters by Scott Bruce, John Hemmings, Balbina Hwang, and Terrence Roehrig, describes the expanding scope and variety of Korean contributions to international stability, reflecting an agenda that extends well beyond the Korean peninsula alone. The ebook analyzes the significance of a variety of South Korean operations, including South Korea’s contribution of peacekeepers in Haiti and Lebanon, Korean participation in ongoing antipiracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden, the contribution of a Korean Provincial Reconstruction Team to multinational stabilization operations in Afghanistan, and South Korea’s membership in the Proliferation Security Intiative (PSI). South Korea has grown into each of these new areas of security collaboration with the United States within the past five years, and is well-positioned to continue as a “middle power” partner in multilateral security operations in the future. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

Local TV Stations In Swing-States Cash In On Deluge Of Political Ads

October 28th 2012


Swing state residents may be growing weary of the barrage of political ads, but this election season has been a boon to local TV stations. President Obama, Mitt Romney, the two parties and the 10 largest independent groups have spent more than $610 million on presidential TV ads so far this year, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, which obtained data from ad tracking firm Kantar Media/CMAG. More than 915,000 presidential ads have aired on broadcast and cable television since June 1. That’s a 44.5 percent increase from the same period in 2008, and a 43.7 percent increase from 2004. 

Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, said the ad buys this year are concentrated in the handful of swing states that will likely decide the election.

Four years ago, Obama had the luxury of spending money in conservatives states like Missouri, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota, but this year, locked in a tight race with Mitt Romney, he has concentrated his funds only in areas where he has a strong chance of winning. Read more ..

Israel and the Sudan

If Israel Attacked Khartoum Munitions Factory, What does it Mean for Gaza and Iran?

October 27th 2012

Israeli Jet


The Iranian Threat

Is it Time to Test Iran

October 27th 2012

Ahmadinejad Nuclear

Most of the debate about how to address Iran's efforts to develop nuclear-weapons capacity focuses on two options. The first is to rely on deterrence and live with an Iran that has a small nuclear arsenal or the ability to assemble one with little advance notice. The second is to launch a preventive military strike aimed at destroying critical parts of the Iranian program and setting back its progress by an estimated two or more years. But now a third option has emerged: negotiating a ceiling on the nuclear program that would not be too low for Iran's government and not too high for the United States, Israel, and the rest of the world.

In fact, such an option has been around for years – and in several rounds of negotiations. What has changed, however, is the context. And changes in context can be critical; indeed, what happens away from the negotiating table almost always determines the outcome of face-to-face talks. The single most important change in context is the rapidly deteriorating state of Iran's economy. The many financial and oil-related sanctions that have been implemented in recent months and years are starting to bite. They were designed not to impede Iran's nuclear program directly, but rather to increase the price that Iran's leaders must pay for pursuing their nuclear ambitions. The thinking (or, more accurately, the hope) was that Iran's leadership, if forced to choose between regime survival and nuclear weapons, would choose the former. Read more ..

The 2012 Vote

A Slight Edge for Romney Becomes Clear in a Tight Presidential Race

October 26th 2012

Mitt Romney

President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, are engaged in a furious final push for votes with a little more than a week to go before Election Day on November 6. Both campaigns are going to great lengths to ensure their supporters get to the polls either on or before Election Day. Public-opinion polls show a very tight race for president and both candidates are targeting a small group of so-called swing states that will determine the outcome. The southern state of Florida is a frequent stop for both Mitt Romney and President Obama. “Florida, I believe in you. I’m asking you to keep believing in me," the president said during a campaign stop this week.

Another prime target is the Midwest state of Ohio, where Romney is urging supporters to get out and vote early. “Because we happen to believe that America faces big challenges and we recognize this is a year with a big choice and Americans want to see big changes, and I’m going to bring it to this country," he told the crowd. Read more ..

The Edge of Terrorism

Hezbollah Under Pressure

October 26th 2012


Hezbollah's days of dominating Lebanon are likely numbered, and the militia's recent behavior suggests that it sees the writing on the wall.

To many Lebanese, the massive car bomb attack in Beirut on Friday that killed the Sunni Muslim head of internal security Wissam al Hassan and seven others evoked the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri. Members of the Shiite militia Hezbollah were indicted for the 2005 crime, and the organization -- along with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's regime -- is a leading suspect in this latest outrage. Rather than a demonstration of strength, however, the attack highlights the militia's sense of insecurity.

For much of the past decade, Hezbollah has struck a cocky pose. But twenty months into a popular uprising in Syria that threatens to topple the Assad regime, interrupt Hezbollah supply lines, and leave the Shiite Party of God surrounded by a sea of Sunni Muslims, the organization is under unprecedented pressure and its normally confident leader Hassan Nasrallah seems concerned. While his speeches continue to reflect their perennial bravado, in recent appearances Nasrallah clearly isn't looking himself. Read more ..

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