Politics on Edge
|George Friedman||August 28th 2012|
Polish national strategy pivots around a single, existential issue: how to preserve its national identity and independence. Located on the oft-invaded North European Plain, Poland's existence is heavily susceptible to the moves of major Eurasian powers. Therefore, Polish history has been erratic, with Poland moving from independence -- even regional dominance -- to simply disappearing from the map, surviving only in language and memory before emerging once again.
For some countries, geopolitics is a marginal issue. Win or lose, life goes on. But for Poland, geopolitics is an existential issue; losing begets national catastrophe. Therefore, Poland's national strategy inevitably is designed with an underlying sense of fear and desperation. Nothing in Polish history would indicate that disaster is impossible.
To begin thinking about Poland's strategy, we must consider that in the 17th century, Poland, aligned with Lithuania, was one of the major European powers. It stretched from the Baltic Sea almost to the Black Sea, from western Ukraine into the Germanic regions. By 1795, it had ceased to exist as an independent country, divided among three emerging powers: Prussia, Russia and Austria. Read more ..
The New Egypt
|Shadi Hamid||August 27th 2012|
The Brookings Institution
It was looking bleak for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. The region’s oldest and most influential Islamist movement had underperformed and overreached in parliament, alienating leftists and liberals in the process. When, in April, the Muslim Brotherhood announced that Mohammed Morsi would be its presidential candidate, after its first choice had been disqualified, the sense of policy drift was unmistakable. The Brotherhood was losing ground. Predictions of its demise, however, were premature. Despite numerous missteps, the movement has proved its resilience. It has not, to be sure, become what many Egyptians hoped it might be—the leader of a unified, national movement that would push Egypt, however haltingly, toward democracy. But by its own particular standards, the Brotherhood has succeeded.
The organization (including its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party) does not operate as a traditional party might be expected to. It cares, of course, about winning elections. But it cares even more about the unity and integrity of the organization, in Arabic, tanzim. In the early days of Egypt’s transition, the Brotherhood showed its more ruthless side—not necessarily out of discomfort with internal democracy but out of its longstanding concern, some would say obsession, with self-preservation. To the extent that dissent within the Brotherhood undermined the tanzim, it had to be quashed. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Cameron Joseph||August 27th 2012|
Republicans this week will look to push the reset button with Hispanic voters by featuring a slew of prominent Latino GOP speakers in Tampa. The Republicans’ goal, according to a top campaign official, is to win 38 percent of the Hispanic vote on Election Day. Mitt Romney’s campaign has chosen a number of influential Latinos to be the public face of the convention.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a home-state favorite, will introduce Romney on the convention’s final night. And Ann Romney will be preceded by Lucé Vela Gutiérrez, Puerto Rico’s first lady on Tuesday. Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and Texas Senate hopeful Ted Cruz will also speak. “There are Hispanic-specific events every day at the convention,” said Jose Fuentes, a co-chairman of Romney’s national Hispanic leadership team and former Puerto Rico attorney general. “I don’t think you’ve ever in the past seen a Republican convention where so many primetime speakers are Hispanics.” Fuentes said of the campaign’s 38 percent goal, 7 percent higher than the 31 percent Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) pulled in 2008 and a slight decrease from the approximately 40 percent former President George W. Bush won in 2004. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Aparna Mathur, Michael R. Strain, Aspen Gorry||August 26th 2012|
There was considerable confusion recently around the July jobs report. The payroll survey reported an addition of 163,000 jobs, but at the same time the unemployment rate ticked up a tenth of a percentage point? We added jobs, but at the same time the number of employed persons shrank by 195,000? How could these things be true at the same time? More generally, how should you read and interpret a jobs report? Here's our advice: read it as a qualitative story representing a coherent narrative, not as a list of facts.
The most important key is not to latch on to any of the specifics. The unemployment rate increased to 8.3 percent, as was widely reported in the press? Yes ... but barely. In fact, the unemployment rate was 8.217 percent in June and 8.254 percent in July. So it didn't increase by 0.1 - it increased by 0.037. The economy added 163,000 jobs, as was splashed all over the headlines? Yes ... kind of. The economy actually lost over 1.2 million jobs moving from June to July. How do you get from a loss of 1.2 million to a gain of 163,000? Read more ..
the 2012 Vote
|Alexander Bolton ||August 25th 2012|
Planned Parenthood’s Action Fund plans to spend more than $3 million in Ohio and Virginia against Mitt Romney in the wake of his pledge to “get rid” of the women’s health advocacy group. The group is one of several liberal-leaning women’s organizations planning to spend millions of dollars in crucial election states to swing undecided female voters toward President Obama.
Joining them are NARAL Pro-Choice America and EMILY’s List, two abortion-rights groups who are also planning aggressive campaigns. Their message is in line with Obama’s increased courtship of female voters. Several women will address the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte. And the campaign announced on Friday a “Romney/Ryan: Wrong For Women” tour for next week that will feature prominent female supporters traveling to swing states to promote the president’s record on women issues. Read more ..
The New Egypt
|David Schenker and Christina Lin ||August 25th 2012|
Next week, Egypt's Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi, will visit China at the invitation of President Hu Jintao. He will seek investments there that will enable Egypt to "dispense of loans and aid," according to Morsi's party vice chairman. From China, Morsi will travel to Tehran to attend the Non-Aligned Movement summit. Just two months after coming to power, Morsi is pursuing a rapprochement with Tehran and articulating a newfound ambition to jettison billions in U.S. foreign assistance dollars and financing from Western financial institutions. Taken together, these steps suggest that Morsi's Egypt may be headed for a foreign policy shift rivaling the scope of President Anwar Sadat's expulsion of the Soviets in 1972 and subsequent reorientation to the West.
Cairo's burgeoning rapprochement with Tehran is the most obvious of Morsi's foreign policy pivots. An Egyptian president hadn't visited Iran since the 1979 revolution, and the clerical regime there continues to celebrate Sadat's assassination. While the notion of a major long-standing U.S. ally self-identifying as "non-aligned" is odious, it was perhaps more tolerable for Washington during the tenure of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Given the heightened tension over Iran's nuclear program, the timing of the Morsi visit seems deliberately provocative. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Soner Cagaptay||August 24th 2012|
The Washington Institute
Turkey is divided on what course to pursue in Syria, and the AKP's ability to sell a more muscular policy is by no means guaranteed.
Following this week's suicide bombing in the Turkish city of Gaziantep, Turkey's government has hinted at Syrian complicity in the attacks, with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu noting, for example, parallels between the bombing and the Syrian regime's tactics.
Such a mindset brings Turkey a step closer to taking action against Damascus. Yet despite such comments, the country is far from united around a policy for taking down Bashar al-Assad's regime anytime soon. These domestic differences have some interesting echoes from almost a decade ago, when Turkey was torn over involvement in another conflict -- the Iraq war. In 2003, Turkey's recently elected Justice and Development Party (AKP) government supported U.S. efforts in the Iraq war despite significant domestic opposition. In doing so, the Islamist-rooted organization was apparently keen to enamor itself with Washington, thereby gaining leverage against the then powerful Turkish military. Read more ..
The Iranian Threat
|Matthew Levitt||August 24th 2012|
|Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad|
In addition to elite Iranian and Hizballah operatives, Tehran has a long history of employing unlikely surrogates to target dissidents abroad, including in the United States.
Over the past few months, Iran has demonstrated a renewed willingness to carry out attacks targeting its enemies. From India and Azerbaijan to Cyprus and Thailand, recent Iran directed plots have targeted diplomats and civilians, Israelis, Americans, Saudis, and more. To execute these attacks, Iran has sometimes dispatched its own agents, such as members of its elite IRGC Quds Force. Other times Iran has relied on trusted proxies like Hezbollah. In a number of cases Quds Force and Hezbollah operatives have worked together to execute attacks abroad.
Now, evidence has emerged indicating Tehran is employing another type of agent -- the unlikely surrogate assassin -- to target Iranian dissidents abroad, including here in the United States. Last October, dual U.S.-Iranian citizen Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, a commander in Iran's Quds Force, the special-operations unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), were charged in New York for their roles in an alleged plot to murder the Saudi ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Jubeir. Read more ..
The New Egypt
|J. Millard Burr||August 24th 2012|
Economic Warfare Institute
"President Barack Obama himself, among other personnel from the US administration, promised Egypt $2 billion in the form of debt swaps and credit guarantees in 2011, shortly after Mubarak was unseated. These promises, however, have yet to materialise."
IMF TO THE RESCUE
On 15 August the Egyptian Finance Minister Momtaz El Said met with U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson to discuss previously promised U.S. foreign aid funding. Also discussed were Egypt government efforts to restore Egypt's national economy and prospects for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan.
Regarding the IMF loan, Patterson agreed that given the political stability it was a "good time" for Egypt to resume negotiations with the IMF. In fact, new negotiations were pending and on 22 August IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde was to visit Cairo to re-open discussions that were initiated shortly after protests erupted across Egypt in January 2011. Read more ..
Egypt and Israel
|Alan Baker||August 23rd 2012|
The transfer of leadership in Egypt into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood, the consequent effects on its internal political, social, economic and religious orientation and stability, its status within the Middle East region, and the standing, strength, and influence of its military – all pose a serious quandary to the international community, in general, and to those countries within Egypt’s own neighborhood, in particular.
The continued integrity of the relationship between Egypt and Israel, based on the Treaty of Peace between them signed over 33 years ago, which has served the strategic interests of both states as well as of the international community, is perhaps the major test of how the new Egypt chooses to see itself and its status in the region.
An integral component of this quandary is the Sinai Peninsula which has served as a buffer between the two countries, where the presence of Egyptian military personnel, equipment, and fortifications was limited by mutual agreement in the Treaty of Peace. Read more ..
The Wikileaks Case
|Luis Fleischman and Nancy Menges||August 22nd 2012|
The Americas Report
Ecuador’s decision to grant political asylum to computer hacker Julian Assange is very revealing in relation to the character and aspirations of Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa.
Assange was the man who succeeded in disclosing American state officials’ and diplomats’ conversations through Wikileaks as well as releasing thousands of pages of top secret documents. However, Assange, besides being suspected of having raped two women in Sweden, is also a man that has become an ideological symbol. This is why Assange was granted political asylum. Such status is usually given to people who have been persecuted for political or ethnic reasons. Assange, although the disclosure of secrets would make him an offender under U.S. laws if so charged, sought asylum over alleged sex crimes committed in Sweden.
Yet, Assange has become a political symbol as elements in the left have seen him as a man who mocked the great power, the United States. This is why several left-wing groups such as the 99 percenters, and other anti-capitalist groups, and civic libertarian groups have turned strongly in favor of Assange, with total disregard for the allegations of sexual assault, which they interpret as an excuse. Read more ..
Israel on Edge
|Efraim Karsh||August 22nd 2012|
Middle East Forum
The sustained anti-Israel de-legitimization campaign is a corollary of the millenarian obsession with the Jews in the Christian and the Muslim worlds. Since Israel is the world’s only Jewish state, and since Zionism is the Jewish people’s national liberation movement, anti-Zionism—as opposed to criticism of specific Israeli policies or actions—means denial of the Jewish right to national self-determination. Such a discriminatory denial of this basic right to only one nation (and one of the few that can trace their corporate identity and territorial attachment to antiquity) while allowing it to all other groups and communities, however new and tenuous their claim to nationhood, is pure and unadulterated anti-Jewish racism, or anti-Semitism as it is commonly known.
By any conceivable standard, Israel has been an extraordinary success story: national rebirth in the ancestral homeland after millennia of exile and dispersion; resuscitation of a dormant biblical language; the creation of a modern, highly educated, technologically advanced, and culturally and economically thriving society, as well as a vibrant liberal democracy in one of the world’s least democratic areas. It is a world leader in agricultural, medical, military, and solar energy technologies, among others; a high-tech superpower attracting more venture capital investment per capita than the United States and Europe; home to one of the world’s best health systems and philharmonic orchestras, as well as to ten Nobel Prize laureates. And so on and so forth. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Emily Goodin||August 22nd 2012|
The Democratic National Convention in Charlotte is expected to be far less star-studded than in 2008, when a rock-star-like President Obama first accepted his party’s nomination. There will be fewer parties celebrating Obama’s nomination and a smaller number of celebrities to watch him accept his party’s blessing, according to an early events list. Compared to the Democratic convention four years ago, this year’s gathering has a noticeably toned-down list of events and a much smaller A-list presence than Denver.
That could change.
Some organizations may be waiting to announce their festivities at a date closer to th convention. Celebrities, for their part, are notoriously fickle, and Hollywood stars could decide to jet to Charlotte at the last minute. The convention committee has yet to release its official schedule too. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Kevin Bogardus and Megan R. Wilson||August 21st 2012|
Republicans dominate The Hill’s annual rankings of the 50 wealthiest lawmakers for the second year in a row, with Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) retaining the crown as the richest member of Congress.
This year’s wealthy list tilts decisively once again toward the right side of the aisle, with 31 of the 50 richest coming from the GOP. Thirty-one of the lawmakers on the list are from the House, with the remaining 19 coming from the Senate.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), at No. 37, is the only GOP leader to make the top 50. The Republican Party’s fastest-rising star, GOP vice-presidential candidate and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, comes nowhere near making the list, having a net worth of at least $2.2 million, a modest sum among members of Congress. McCaul reported a minimum net worth of $290.5 million for 2011, a more than $3 million jump from 2010 that kept him nearly $100 million ahead of his nearest challenger, Democratic Sen. John Kerry (Mass.). Read more ..
America and Asia
|Eric Stadius and Elizabeth Briggs||August 21st 2012|
In November 2011, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced Washington’s official pivot to Asia. Outlining a vision for an Asia-Pacific Century, Secretary Clinton described a desired symbiotic and unfettered relationship between the two regions that will provide “unprecedented opportunities for investment, trade, and access to cutting-edge technology.” Washington hopes this engagement will help in “strengthening bilateral security alliances, deepening working relationships with emerging powers, engaging with relational multilateral institutions, expanding trade and investment, forging a broad-based military presence, and advancing democracy and human rights.” With the TPP as a first step, the ultimate goal is to “build a web of partnerships and institutions across the Pacific that is durable and consistent with American interests and values.”
At the center of this pivot has been the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an enigmatic trade pact that has been hailed as a true “21st century agreement.” In negotiation since 2008, the TPP would link the United States with Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam (the TPP-9) across a variety of economic platforms. Mexico, Canada, and Japan are all looking to join the agreement (the TPP-12), which would make the TPP the largest trade bloc in the world, encompassing some 700 million people and about $26 trillion USD in various forms of economic activity. Read more ..
Mexico on Edge
|George Friedman||August 21st 2012|
A few years ago, I wrote about Mexico possibly becoming a failed state because of the effect of the cartels on the country. Mexico may have come close to that, but it stabilized itself and took a different course instead -- one of impressive economic growth in the face of instability.
Discussion of national strategy normally begins with the question of national security. But a discussion of Mexico's strategy must begin with economics. This is because Mexico's neighbor is the United States, whose military power in North America denies Mexico military options that other nations might have. But proximity to the United States does not deny Mexico economic options. Indeed, while the United States overwhelms Mexico from a national security standpoint, it offers possibilities for economic growth.
Mexico is now the world's 14th-largest economy, just above South Korea and just below Australia. Its gross domestic product was $1.16 trillion in 2011. It grew by 3.8 percent in 2011 and 5.5 percent in 2010. Before a major contraction of 6.9 percent in 2009 following the 2008 crisis, Mexico's GDP grew by an average of 3.3 percent in the five years between 2004 and 2008. When looked at in terms of purchasing power parity, a measure of GDP in terms of actual purchasing power, Mexico is the 11th-largest economy in the world, just behind France and Italy. It is also forecast to grow at just below 4 percent again this year, despite slowing global economic trends, thanks in part to rising U.S. consumption. Read more ..
Israel's Looming Attack
|Saul Roth||August 20th 2012|
World Jewish Daily
After a week of media speculation and Israeli denials of a gap between American and Israeli policy on Iran, America's top military man has publicly admitted that such a gap does indeed exist. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Sunday that "You can take two countries, give them the same intelligence and reach two different conclusions. I think that's what’s happening here." The chairman also admitted that the U.S. does not believe that a nuclear Iran would represent an immediate threat to American interests or security.
"Israel sees the Iranian threat more seriously than the US," he said, "because a nuclear Iran poses a threat to Israel's very existence." Speaking of his Israeli counterpart, IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, Dempsey said that he speaks to Gantz twice a month, but "we admit that our clocks ticking at different paces." Nonetheless, the Chairman did express an understanding of Israel's concerns. "We have to understand the Israelis," he said, "they live with a constant suspicion with which we do not have to deal." Read more ..
Manufacturing on Edge
|Murk Muro and Jessica Lee||August 20th 2012|
The Brookings Institution
Hubs and clusters, institutes and ecosystems: In recent years, we and others have talked a lot about the morphology of innovation systems, which are frequently anchored by major centers of research and comprised of related regional clouds of entrepreneurs, orbiting firms, industry actors, and educational institutions.
Strengthening that optimal structure was the idea behind our companion proposals for the creation of a network of regional energy discovery-innovation institutes and the establishment of a program to aid and abet nascent clusters with competitive grants. And it is also the point of the Department of Energy’s Energy Innovation Hubs program as well as the several regional innovation cluster programs now running, including at the Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, that have moved along these lines. Now, it’s great to see the Obama administration moving to pilot another proposed national network of innovation hubs aimed at catalyzing regional growth ecosystems, this time in manufacturing. Read more ..
Egypt and Israel
|Jacob Kamaras||August 19th 2012|
Israel was cautiously monitoring its relationship with Egypt following Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi’s stunning decision to dismiss Cairo’s two top generals and quash a military order that had curbed the new leader’s powers.
The Jewish state was reportedly surprised by the decision to dismiss Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and Minister of Defence Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, and Chief of Staff Sami Enan, and is watching the evolving situation with some concern. Morsi stunned the world on Sunday, when he announced that he would be replacing them—in essence dismissing the most powerful figures of the post-Mubarak era in Egypt.
A senior government source told Israel Radio on Monday morning that the incoming heads of the Egyptian military are well-aware of the importance of cooperation with Israel over the situation in the Sinai Peninsula and along the border between Israel and Egypt. However, the source added, that it was as yet unclear whether they fully appreciated the vital necessity of military cooperation between the two countries. Morsi’s current position of no direct communication with Israel makes it very difficult to establish any sort of dialogue and cooperation, and also makes it more difficult to formally assess the plans of the new Egyptian government. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Bernie Becker||August 19th 2012|
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) may have included a business consumption tax in his budget vision several years ago, but conservatives don’t appear to be holding that against Mitt Romney’s new running mate.
Consumption taxes – especially the dreaded value added tax (VAT) – can make conservatives queasy. But some economic thinkers on the right say the consumption tax that Ryan included in his “Roadmap for America’s Future” had key differences with VATs. And, they add, Ryan moved to more feasible and politically palatable corporate tax reforms after the 2010 elections, when Republicans took over the House and he became Budget Committee chairman. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the chief economic adviser to Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential campaign, said Ryan realized that it would be easier to fix the existing way businesses are taxed than to substitute in an entire new system. Read more ..
Israel's Looming Strike
|Michael Herzog||August 19th 2012|
The Washington Institute
Israelis agree that Iran's nuclear program must be stopped, and their debate regarding a strike's cost-effectiveness, urgency, and impact on relations with the United States is coming to a head.
With the heat of the summer has come an unprecedented flare-up in Israel's public debate on whether and when to unilaterally strike the advancing Iranian nuclear program. Broadly speaking, Defense Minister Ehud Barak seems to advocates early Israeli action, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears inclined to act but remains undecided, President Shimon Peres and most of the current and former defense establishment oppose an independent Israeli strike in the near future, and the rest of the government and the public at large are divided or uncertain. Peres has gone public with his opposition in recent days, further elevating the flames.
Following a wave of press reports pitting the bulk of the defense establishment against political decisionmakers on this issue, senior officials launched a media counteroffensive in a bid to defend the unilateral military option, prepare the public for a possible strike, and influence Washington and Tehran's calculus. First, Netanyahu publicly emphasized that threats directed at Israel's home front are "dwarfed" by the danger of Iran attaining nuclear weapons. In private, he reportedly stated, "If there is an inquiry commission [after a strike], I will say that I am responsible." Read more ..
The Digital Edge
|Brendan Sasso||August 18th 2012|
In winning approval for a $3.6 billion deal with leading cable companies, Verizon showed that it learned from the mistakes of its chief rival, AT&T.
Whereas AT&T rolled out a splashy public relations campaign last year to try and push through a $39 billion acquisition of T-Mobile, Verizon kept its cable proposal under the radar while offering concessions to regulators. Verizon's strategy proved more effective. The Justice Department filed a lawsuit claiming AT&T's purchase of T-Mobile would stifle competition, stopping the merger in its tracks.
On Thursday, those same regulators gave the Verizon cable deal their seal of approval. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has yet to formally complete its review of Verizon's deal, but Chairman Julius Genachowski said he plans to circulate an order with his fellow commissioners to give it the final go-ahead. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Lisa Schlein||August 18th 2012|
The United Nations Refugee Agency says that the Syrian refugee exodus continues to escalate. It says the exodus is particularly significant from Syria's most populous city of Aleppo where fighting continues between government and opposition forces.
UNHCR says it has registered more than 170,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq. It says it has recorded the sharpest rises in Turkey, which is close to Syria's besieged northern city of Aleppo. The agency says Turkey hosts almost 65,000 Syrians in nine camps, about 40 percent of them include people who have arrived this month. The UNHCR says it is scaling up its humanitarian assistance in Turkey.
The UNHCR says the number of refugees formally registered in Turkey and other neighboring countries does not reflect the actual magnitude of the exodus from Syria because many Syrians are fearful of being identified. Refugee numbers also are climbing in Jordan. The agency says on Thursday night, more than 1,000 people arrived at Jordanian border areas. The Jordanian government estimates some 150,000 Syrians have crossed into the country since the Syrian uprising began nearly 18 months ago. UNHCR spokesman, Adrian Edwards, says refugees are being housed in shelters and schools throughout the region. Read more ..
The Edge of Defense
|Aaron Mehta||August 17th 2012|
Grover Norquist, influential Republican Washington lobbyist, is advising his party’s lawmakers to cut the defense budget deeply to avoid a major federal tax hike. His remarks this week were another sign of splintering views in Republican ranks about spending on national defense, that presently consumes about half of the discretionary federal budget—with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney going in one direction and some Republican lawmakers and lobbyists headed in a different direction.
Norquist, a long-time anti-tax crusader in Washington, said in a talk at the Center for The National Interest that Republicans should not be pushing for increased spending on defense when the national deficit has ballooned. Instead, he said, lawmakers should embrace the need to balance the budget and cut wasteful projects, which he said could be done without negatively impacting national security. “You need to decide what your real defense needs are,” said Norquist. “That doesn’t mean chairmen of certain committees get to build bases in their states. That’s not a defense need ... [but] a political desire.” The debate so far, he said, has been marked by a lack of “serious conversation” on the Hill. However, he predicted that many of the Republicans unwilling to cut defense spending would either retire or be replaced in the November elections. Read more ..
The New Egypt
|Eric Trager||August 16th 2012|
Egypt’s “full transition to civilian rule,” long sought by the Obama administration, has finally come to fruition. But it is neither liberal nor democratic.
On August 12, having purged top military officials, Muslim Brotherhood veteran and new President Mohammed Morsi issued a sweeping constitutional declaration. It grants him complete executive and legislative power, plus the authority to select the writers of Egypt’s new constitution. Eighteen months after Hosni Mubarak’s ouster, Egypt has a new dictator—and the way in which Mr. Morsi grabbed power says much about what he will do with it.
These moves follow an attack last week in the notoriously unstable Sinai peninsula, where militants killed 16 Egyptian soldiers, stole a military vehicle, and attempted to breach Israel’s borders. The incident gave Mr. Morsi an excuse to sack the security officials who posed the greatest threat to his domestic authority—particularly the leaders of Egypt’s now-defunct military junta, which in June had issued its own constitutional declaration limiting the newly elected president’s powers. Read more ..
Education on Edge
|Martin R. West||August 16th 2012|
The Brookings Institution
Whether a child is a proficient reader by the third grade is an important indicator of their future academic success. Indeed, substantial evidence indicates that unless students establish basic reading skills by that time, the rest of their education will be an uphill struggle. This evidence has spurred efforts to ensure that all students receive high-quality reading instruction in and even before the early grades. It has also raised the uncomfortable question of how to respond when those efforts fail to occur or prove unsuccessful: Should students who have not acquired a basic level of reading proficiency by grade three be promoted along with their peers? Or should they be retained and provided with intensive interventions before moving on to the next grade?
Several states and school districts have recently enacted policies requiring that students who do not demonstrate basic reading proficiency at the end of third grade be retained and provided with remedial services. Similar policies are under debate in state legislatures around the nation. Although these policies aim to provide incentives for educators and parents to ensure that students meet performance expectations, they can also be expected to increase the incidence of retention in the early grades. Their enactment has therefore renewed a longstanding debate about retention’s consequences for low-achieving students. Read more ..
Healthcare on Edge
|Wilam A. Galston and Korin Davis||August 16th 2012|
The Brookings Institution
Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate has moved Medicare to the center of the 2012 presidential campaign. Democrats have accused the Republican ticket of planning to "end Medicare as we know it" by turning it into a voucher plan that would leave seniors exposed to large and rising out-of-pocket costs. For their part, Republicans have accused President Obama of cutting Medicare by $716 billion to expand Medicaid and fund other provisions of the Affordable Care Act. Democrats have retorted that House Republicans overwhelmingly voted for a budget, drafted by Paul Ryan, that cut Medicare by the same amount and diverted the funds to purposes other than health care.
This brief lays out the basic facts about the Medicare cuts. A subsequent brief will discuss the issues raised by the broader structural changes to the program that Republicans have proposed. Read more ..
The New Egypt
|Yaakov Lappin ||August 16th 2012|
Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi delivered a severe blow to the Egyptian military's political ambitions this week, and sent clear message to Egypt and beyond: his civilian Islamist government is now in charge.
Taking advantage of widespread shock in Egypt over the brutal gunning down of 15 Egyptian soldiers by jihadi terrorists in the Sinai desert last week, Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood made their move and eliminated the remnants of the old Mubarak order.
Morsi sacked Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, a towering figure in Egypt who served in his position for 22 years, as well as Chief of Staff Gen. Sami Enan. Morsi also fired the heads of the navy, the air force, and the air defense force.
By doing so, Morsi dealt a severe blow to the Egyptian military's quest to retain extensive political power in post-revolution Egypt.
To drive home the point, the Egyptian president cancelled a decree issued by the military's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) that barred him from dealing with military appointments. No longer can the SCAF decide what powers an elected Egyptian president wields.
The Egyptian military's political goals may be in tatters but its control over large areas of the Egyptian economy remains intact, however. The military continues to monopolize a broad range of economic sectors, including manufacturing, management of businesses (such as gas stations), and is a major property owner. Undoubtedly, Morsi has set his sights on disbanding the army's economic empire as well.
The entire maneuver to depose the military chiefs was, of course, fully coordinated with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which rushed to praise Morsi afterwards. Read more ..
Israel on Edge
|George Friedman||August 15th 2012|
Crises are normally short, sharp and intense affairs. Israel's predicament has developed on a different time frame, is more diffuse than most crises and has not reached a decisive and intense moment. But it is still a crisis. It is not a crisis solely about Iran, although the Israeli government focuses on that issue. Rather, it is over Israel's strategic reality since 1978, when it signed the Camp David accords with Egypt.
Perhaps the deepest aspect of the crisis is that Israel has no internal consensus on whether it is in fact a crisis, or if so, what the crisis is about. The Israeli government speaks of an existential threat from Iranian nuclear weapons. I would argue that the existential threat is broader and deeper, part of it very new, and part of it embedded in the founding of Israel.
Israel now finds itself in a long-term crisis in which it is struggling to develop a strategy and foreign policy to deal with a new reality. This is causing substantial internal stress, since the domestic consensus on Israeli policy is fragmenting at the same time that the strategic reality is shifting. Though this happens periodically to nations, Israel sees itself in a weak position in the long run due to its size and population, despite its current military superiority. More precisely, it sees the evolution of events over time potentially undermining that military reality, and it therefore feels pressured to act to preserve it. How to preserve its superiority in the context of the emerging strategic reality is the core of the Israeli crisis. Read more ..
|Martin Barillas||August 15th 2012|
Cutting Edge News Senior Correspondent
Chatter in the U.S. and Israel over a possible attack by the Israeli military on Iran shifted this week following reports of factionalism within the Jewish state’s leadership and divisions in the U.S. over the appropriate response to Iran’s intransigence over its nuclear weaponization program. Should Israel attack Iran, so goes one possible scenario, the Islamic Republic could retaliate by instructing its Hezbollah and Hamas terrorist allies to send thousands of missiles into Israel.
Speaking in a radio interview in Israel, Vice Premier Silvan Shalom gave assurances that Iran does not have an “unlimited number of missiles.” He averred that Israel can stop massive rocket barrages within 24 hours by attacking the infrastructure in Lebanon and Gaza, thus bringing daily life there to a standstill. Possible targets include, he said, power plants, oil refineries and airports. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|David Pollock||August 14th 2012|
While world attention focuses on bombings and clashes in Damascus and Aleppo, Syria’s Kurds buried their internal differences in mid-July, with Iraqi Kurdish help and Turkey’s blessing, and then promptly kicked Syrian regime forces out of their territory. This is a major blow to the regime, potentially clearing the northern approaches to Aleppo for opposition forces. But Kurdish relations with the rest of the Syrian opposition remain a deeply divisive issue.
Syria’s rival Kurdish movements
Syria’s Kurds have lately been sharply split between two major movements: the Party of Unity and Democracy (PYD), founded in 2003, which collaborated both with the Bashar al-Assad regime and with the violently anti-Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK); and the Kurdish National Council of Syria (KNC), an amalgam formed in October 2011 of fifteen local parties opposed to both Assad and the PKK. Over the past year, as the wider Syrian revolution intensified, these two movements often came to blows in Syria’s Kurdish regions. Previous attempts to reconcile them, notably in January and again in May 2012, came to naught; their differences were simply too deep, and their supporters too evenly matched, to make a lasting agreement possible. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Ron Haskins||August 14th 2012|
The Brookings Institution
As a budget hawk who has spent a good part of the last decade writing and speaking (sometimes yelling) about the “unsustainable” federal deficit, I think Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate could be exactly what is needed to turn this ugly, ad hominem election into an election fought over the greatest problem our nation has faced since the fall of the Soviet Union. For three reasons.
First, as Ryan has shown repeatedly, he has vast knowledge of the federal budget and can argue the particulars of his case. Budget hawks of both parties have been yearning for a national candidate who knows the budget issues in detail and talks about the deficit at every opportunity. If Ryan is allowed to continue in this vein, the Presidential election of 2012 could turn into a national seminar with the American people coming to understand as they never have before why we can’t go on accumulating annual trillion dollar deficits and remain a strong nation. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Michael Barone||August 13th 2012|
In front of the USS Wisconsin in Norfolk harbor, a coatless Mitt Romney named a tieless Paul Ryan as his vice presidential nominee.
Romney's choice was not much of a surprise after he told NBC's Chuck Todd on Thursday that he wanted someone with "a vision for the country, that adds something to the political discourse about the direction of the country. I mean I happen to believe that this is a defining election for America, that we're going to be voting for what kind of America we're going to have."
This arguably describes some of the others mentioned as possible nominees, but it clearly fits Paul Ryan. He doesn't fit some of the standard criteria for vice president. He hasn't won a statewide election, held an executive position or become well known nationally or even in much of Wisconsin. Read more ..
|Saul Roth||August 12th 2012|
World Jewish Daily
Israel may be only a short time away from one of the most fateful moments in its history. Friday evening, Israeli television reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak have all but finalized their decision to attack Iran's nuclear program.
The reasons outlined for their decision make for chilling reading. Most importantly, the two men believe that the Obama administration does not and will never consider an Iranian nuke a threat serious enough to justify military action.
"The US," reports the Times of Israel: "has not provided Israel with details of an attack plan. President Obama has not promised to attack Iran if all else fails. Conditions cited by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta for an American attack do not calm Israeli concerns. And Obama has a record of seeking UN and Arab League approval before action. Obama does not want to intervene militarily before the presidential elections in November, and it is doubtful that he would act afterwards, runs the Israeli assessment, the TV report said. Obama may believe that the US can live with a nuclear Iran, but Israel cannot." Read more ..
The New Egypt
|Shoshana Bryen||August 12th 2012|
Jewish Policy Center
Here’s an odd story: On August 2nd, the government of Israel publicly warned Israelis to leave the Sinai because it had information about potential terrorist activity. On the 4th, the U.S. government followed suit. On the evening of the 6th, the attack came—not against Israel at first, or against Americans, but against an Egyptian military outpost where soldiers were having their Iftar dinner. Sixteen Egyptian soldiers were killed and their vehicles commandeered, and the terrorists set off for an Israeli Bedouin military base in the Negev, hoping to draw Israel and Egypt into war. Israel thwarted the attack.
That’s not the odd part.
In the aftermath, one of the most interesting developments came from Egyptian blogger Dalia Ziada. Ziada, a liberal political analyst and activist in Cairo, is Executive Director of the Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies, one of the oldest and largest human rights/civil liberties NGOs in the Arab world. She wrote in her blog that Israeli authorities had shared their information with Egyptian intelligence, but the intelligence agency had failed to act. Why, she wondered aloud, did the Israeli government take care of its citizens and the Egyptian government did not? Read more ..
The Edge of Terrorism
| Robert Satloff and Eric Trager ||August 11th 2012|
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The recent deadly attack in the Sinai Peninsula, in which militants killed sixteen Egyptian soldiers while wounding seven others, was as predictable as it was devastating. Since last year's revolution, terrorists have worked continuously to manufacture tensions between Egypt and Israel, attacking the gas pipeline to Israel and Jordan fifteen times and launching a deadly cross-border raid on Israel last August that catalyzed a near-crisis in bilateral relations. Given the severe threat that Sinai's instability poses to regional peace, Washington should emphasize two points to Egypt's military and Islamist rulers.
First, it should inform President Muhammad Morsi that his response to this crisis will provide the first real evidence of his oft-stated commitment to foreign diplomats that he will respect Egypt's international agreements, that is, maintain the peace treaty with Israel. Unlike last week's flap over whether or not Morsi had responded to a letter from Israeli president Shimon Peres, yesterday's Sinai attack carries severe security ramifications for regional peace.
Central Asia on Edge
|Eugene Chasuvosky||August 10th 2012|
Since 2010, Central Asia has become increasingly volatile, a trend many have attributed to a rise in militant Islamism. Militancy has indeed risen since 2010, but the notion that militant Islamists primarily are responsible for Central Asia's volatility is shortsighted because it ignores other political and economic dynamics at play in the region.
But if these dynamics, not jihadist designs, inspired much of the region's recent militant activity, the impending U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 could put Central Asia at greater risk for militant Islamism in the future. Combined with upcoming leadership changes in several Central Asian states, the withdrawal could complicate an already complex militant landscape in the region.
Regional Militancy: Late 1990s and Early 2000s
Central Asia was an important region for Islamist militancy in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The region is predominantly Muslim, though like all religious practices, Islam was suppressed during the Soviet era. Given the region's secularization under Soviet rule, many religious groups and figures either went underground or practiced openly to the extent that the Soviets would allow.
These groups and individuals were concentrated in the Fergana Valley, the demographic core of Central Asia that encompasses parts of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Islamists were particularly prevalent in Uzbekistan, which is home to several important religious and cultural cites in areas such as Samarkand and Bukhara. Read more ..
Iran on Edge
|Mehdi Khalaji ||August 10th 2012|
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Action on Iran's domestic brutality can prevent the Islamic Republic from labeling sanctions as something they are not intended to be: an attack on the Iranian public.
With tensions mounting over Iran's nuclear program, the West has dealt the Tehran regime crippling blows on several fronts, including through sanctions, the targeted killing of scientists, and cyber operations such as the Stuxnet virus. Tehran is no doubt reeling, but regime leaders have spotted a silver lining: The West's single-minded focus on the nuclear dossier has permitted them to widen their violations of human rights.
Indeed, since the protests that followed the 2009 election, Iran's human-rights abuses have worsened substantially -- a development that has gone largely unnoticed in the U.S. and Europe. This is a tragedy with profound strategic implications for the West.
The Iranian legal system allows numerous human-rights violations, including discrimination against women and ethno-sectarian minorities, and the imposition of brutal penal sentences, such as stoning. Tehran's ruling theocrats view human rights as a Western invention used to undermine Islamic culture and sovereignty as part of what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei considers a soft war against Iran. They therefore do not believe themselves duty-bound to uphold their basic human-rights obligations, including those under international agreements to which they are party.
The 2012 Vote
|Michael Beckel and John Dunbar||August 9th 2012|
|Missouri senate candidate Representative Todd Akin (R)|
Rep. Todd Akin, a six-term lawmaker and evangelical Christian with the support of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, won a hotly contested Republican U.S. Senate primary in Missouri, meaning he will face incumbent Claire McCaskill, a Democrat the GOP considers beatable. Unlike his two main opponents, Akin was spared from millions of dollars worth of attack ads paid for by outside groups. Super PACs and politically active nonprofits targeted former state treasurer Sarah Steelman, who was endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and millionaire businessman John Brunner.
With all precincts reporting, Akin won 36 percent of the vote, Brunner finished second with 30 percent and Steelman was a close third at 29.2 percent, according to the Missouri Secretary of State's offfice. Steelman called Akin to concede a little after 10 p.m., according to news reports.
Brunner, a self-funder who enjoyed favorable advertising paid for by the powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce, was the target of more than $1.1 million in attack ads paid for by Majority PAC, the main super PAC focused on helping Democrats retain control of the Senate. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Robert Maguire||August 8th 2012|
Read more ..
As of today, spending reported to the Federal Election Commission by groups that aren't required to disclose the sources of their funding has nearly tripled over where it stood at the same point in the 2010 election cycle, according to research by the Center for Responsive Politics. By Aug. 6, 2010, groups registered as social welfare organizations, or 501(c)(4)s, as well as super PACs funded entirely by them, had reported spending $8.5 million. That figure has soared to $24.9 million in this cycle. In 2008, nondisclosing groups reported spending $8.3 million at this point in the campaign season.
In addition, the numbers show a clear break from those of previous cycles in that independent expenditures
(ads explicitly calling for the election or defeat of a particular candidate) make up the vast majority of the spending reported by nondisclosing groups. Spending for electioneering communications -- "issue ads" that name a federal candidate and are run within a 60-day window before a general election, or 30 days before a primary or a national party nominating convention -- has fallen as a share of the total.
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