Egypt and Israel
|Eric Trager||September 14th 2011|
The diplomatic documents had barely stopped drifting down from the Israeli Embassy in Egypt when New York Times columnist Nick Kristof referenced the root causes of the attack, as he saw them: “Attacking the Israeli embassy doesn’t help Gazans, doesn’t bring back the dead,” he tweeted. “Instead it helps Israeli hardliners.” It was the standard response of an armchair analyst, for whom all Middle Eastern current events—and particularly the most outrageous ones—are inextricably linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
But to assume that the Egyptian protesters who attacked the Israeli Embassy in Cairo last Friday, tearing down a protective wall and ransacking the premises, were motivated by cosmopolitan, pro-Palestinian concerns is to completely ignore the sad truth that Egyptians overwhelmingly hate Israel for wholly Egyptian reasons: Despite 32 years of peace under the Camp David Accords, Egyptian national pride remains tied to the country’s previous wars with the Jewish state. Read more ..
Looking for America
|Scott Stewart||September 12th 2011|
Like nearly all of the peoples of North and South America, most Americans are not originally from the territory that became the United States. They are a diverse collection of peoples primarily from a dozen different Western European states, mixed in with smaller groups from a hundred more. All of the New World entities struggled to carve a modern nation and state out of the American continents. Brazil is an excellent case of how that struggle can be a difficult one. The United States falls on the opposite end of the spectrum.
The American geography is an impressive one. The Greater Mississippi Basin together with the Intracoastal Waterway has more kilometers of navigable internal waterways than the rest of the world combined. The American Midwest is both overlaid by this waterway, and is the world’s largest contiguous piece of farmland. The U.S. Atlantic Coast possesses more major ports than the rest of the Western Hemisphere combined. Two vast oceans insulated the United States from Asian and European powers, deserts separate the United States from Mexico to the south, while lakes and forests separate the population centers in Canada from those in the United States. The United States has capital, food surpluses and physical insulation in excess of every other country in the world by an exceedingly large margin. So like the Turks, the Americans are not important because of who they are, but because of where they live Read more ..
Economic Recovery on Edge
|Alexander Bolton||September 12th 2011|
Financial markets have given their first review of President Obama’s jobs plan, but their analysis speaks more to their doubts about Washington than the White House proposal.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other stock market indices plummeted Friday, September 9—less than 24 hours after Obama unveiled his plan to a joint session of Congress. The Dow lost 303 points, or 2.7 percent, and the S&P 500 dropped by a similar percentage.
Wall Street analysts said the freefall was caused primarily by uncertainty over economic trouble in Europe but noted that Obama’s speech had little countervailing effect.
Financial markets lost confidence in Washington policymakers’ ability to solve problems during the debt dispute, and they now doubt Congress will move a sizable package to stimulate the economy. Read more ..
After the Flotilla
|Mitchell Bard||September 11th 2011|
Cutting Edge Commentator
On September 2, 2011, the United Nations released its investigative report concerning the May 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla that tried to breach Israel’s naval blockade of the Gaza Strip. The UN Palmer Committee, led by former New Zealand prime minister Sir Geoffrey Palmer, examined the facts, circumstances, and context that surrounded the deadly conflagration off Gaza’s coast and submitted findings on the international legitimacy and legality of Israel’s continued blockade of the Hamas-run enclave. Despite attempts by many media outlets to bury the findings and highlight only the parts that criticized the Jewish state, Palmer’s report adopted conclusions that vindicated Israel’s positions concerning the blockade and placed the responsibility for the confrontation on the “humanitarian” groups that formed the flotilla. Read more ..
|Paula Lopez-Gamundi||September 7th 2011|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
With gold prices soaring to around USD 1,600 per ounce, Colombia has made a concerted effort to stimulate foreign investment in its mining sector. As a result, the Colombian government has favored multinational mining companies over small to medium scale local miners. While this new gold rush represents a significant source of investment and finance for the federal government, it also helps fund Colombia’s four-decade long civil war.
After years of government-sponsored eradication, paramilitary and guerrilla armies have begun to abandon coca production and are turning to gold mining, as well as the extortion of mining communities, to generate significant sources of revenue. Moreover, as a result of governmental favoritism, multinational mining corporations utilize national military forces and paramilitaries to harass native populations, local miners, and unionized workers in an effort to force them from their gold-laden lands. Read more ..
Edge of Terrorism
|Michael Knights||September 6th 2011|
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
On August 15, terrorist groups affiliated with al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) struck seven cities with 15 separate car bombings and attacks against security forces, civilian markets, and religious pilgrims. This strike was the first such large-scale coordinated attack in Iraq since August 2010, when AQI hit 12 cities across the country. The attacks are undoubtedly worrying, because they signal that disparate insurgent cells spread across central and northern Iraq can, on occasion, coordinate their actions for added impact.
AQI's own national-level command disintegrated following the deaths in April 2010 of AQI leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and AQI minister of war Abu Ayub al-Masri. Since then, groups such as Jaish Rijal Tariqah al-Naqshabandi (JRTN), an insurgent movement led by former Baathist officers and officials, have filled the void. These groups play coordinating roles, commissioning attacks by AQI and nationalist cells across the country, boosting the number of attacks across north and central Iraq. Read more ..
The Battle for Libya
|George Friedman||August 30th 2011|
The war in Libya is over. More precisely, governments and media have decided that the war is over, despite the fact that fighting continues. The unfulfilled expectation of this war has consistently been that Moammar Gadhafi would capitulate when faced with the forces arrayed against him, and that his own forces would abandon him as soon as they saw that the war was lost.
What was being celebrated last week, with presidents, prime ministers and the media proclaiming the defeat of Gadhafi, will likely be true in due course. The fact that it is not yet true does not detract from the self-congratulations.
For example, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini reported that only 5 percent of Libya is still under Gadhafi’s control. That seems like a trivial amount, save for this news from Italian newspaper La Stampa, which reported that “Tripoli is being cleaned up” neighborhood by neighborhood, street by street and home by home. Meanwhile, bombs from above are pounding Sirte, where, according to the French, Gadhafi has managed to arrive, although it is not known how. The strategically important town of Bali Walid — another possible hiding place and one of only two remaining exit routes to another Gadhafi stronghold in Sabha — is being encircled. Read more ..
The Battle for Libya
|Walid Phares||August 28th 2011|
Cutting Edge Senior Contributor
By seizing most of Tripoli and fighting what's left of the pockets of resistance of Qaddafi forces, Libyan rebels have now almost dislodged the old regime and are expected to begin building their own government. The most pressing question within the international community and in Washington is about the immediate to medium-term future of the country. Will the Transitional National Council swiftly install its bureaucracies in Tripoli and across the country? Will Qaddafi's supporters accept the new rule or will they become the new rebels? And most importantly, are the current rebels united in their vision for a new Libya?
Libya's foreign minister says Qaddafi has exhausted all of his options after rebels take over Tripoli compound.
Read more ..
The Battle for Libya
|Scott Stewart||August 25th 2011|
With the end of the Gadhafi regime seemingly in sight, it is an opportune time to step back and revisit one of the themes we discussed at the beginning of the crisis: What comes after the Gadhafi regime?
As the experiences of recent years in Iraq and Afghanistan have vividly illustrated, it is far easier to depose a regime than it is to govern a country. It has also proved to be very difficult to build a stable government from the remnants of a long-established dictatorial regime.
History is replete with examples of coalition fronts that united to overthrow an oppressive regime but then splintered and fell into internal fighting once the regime they fought against was toppled. In some cases, the power struggle resulted in a civil war more brutal than the one that brought down the regime. In other cases, this factional strife resulted in anarchy that lasted for years as the iron fist that kept ethnic and sectarian tensions in check was suddenly removed, allowing those issues to re-emerge. Read more ..
The Arab-Israeli Fall
|George Friedman||August 25th 2011|
In September, the U.N. General Assembly will vote on whether to recognize Palestine as an independent and sovereign state with full rights in the United Nations. In many ways, this would appear to be a reasonable and logical step. Whatever the Palestinians once were, they are clearly a nation in the simplest and most important sense—namely, they think of themselves as a nation. Nations are created by historical circumstances, and those circumstances have given rise to a Palestinian nation. Under the principle of the United Nations and the theory of the right to national self-determination, which is the moral foundation of the modern theory of nationalism, a nation has a right to a state, and that state has a place in the family of nations. In this sense, the U.N. vote will be unexceptional.
However, when the United Nations votes on Palestinian statehood, it will intersect with other realities and other historical processes. First, it is one thing to declare a Palestinian state; it is quite another thing to create one. The Palestinians are deeply divided between two views of what the Palestinian nation ought to be, a division not easily overcome. Second, this vote will come at a time when two of Israel’s neighbors are coping with their own internal issues. Read more ..
Edge of Terrorism
|George Friedman||August 22nd 2011|
|Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri|
A series of coordinated attacks occurred on August 18 along Israel’s border with Egypt. While each attack was relatively small, the incidents indicate some degree of coordination among the attackers. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak attributed the attacks to elements emanating from the Gaza Strip, while Israel Defense Forces (IDF) tactical reports stated that the attacks had been launched from across Israel’s border with Egypt along the Sinai peninsula. No one has yet claimed responsibility.
Israel has plenty of experience in dealing with threats from militants in Gaza. In response, Israel often conducts preemptive as well as retaliatory airstrikes using real-time intelligence. In addition, whenever things appear to be getting out of control, the IDF conducts a major ground offensive. Read more ..
Morocco on Edge
|Kassem Bahaji||August 22nd 2011|
|Credit: Donar Reiskoffer|
Two distinct politico-religious movements emerged in Morocco in the 1960s and 1980s. The first was a radical movement, which was confronted by the government, forcing it to break up, change, and adapt. The second was characterized by its confrontational and inflexible stance vis-à-vis the status quo. Thus, while the former became integrated at the expense of its early radical glamour, the latter remained adamant in refusing to become integrated in the political system. Despite the popularity of both movements, their efforts to attract new recruits remain limited since most ordinary Moroccan Muslims do not want to mix religion and politics.
Since its inception in late 1960s, the Islamist movement in Morocco has been growing—especially on university campuses—and has been dominated by two distinct currents. The two tendencies present different perspectives on political activism and thus reflect distinct political cultures. Read more ..
|Scott Stewart||August 22nd 2011|
It is summer in Juarez, and again this year we find the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes organization (VCF), also known as the Juarez cartel, under pressure and making threats. At this time in 2010, La Linea, the VCF’s enforcer arm, detonated a small improvised explosive device (IED) inside a car in Juarez and killed two federal agents, one municipal police officer and an emergency medical technician and wounded nine other people. La Linea threatened to employ a far larger IED (100 kilograms, or 220 pounds) if the FBI and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) did not investigate the head of Chihuahua State Police intelligence, whom the VCF claimed was working for the Sinaloa Federation.
La Linea did attempt to employ another IED on Sept. 10, 2010, but this device, which failed to detonate, contained only 16 kilograms of explosives, far less than the 100 kilograms that the group had threatened to use. Read more ..
Algeria on Edge
|Muzaffer Ercan Yilmaz ||August 22nd 2011|
An analytical discussion is needed on the religious opposition in Algeria, exploring the conditions and conflict-prone effects of the movement. Through historical analysis, we see that the Islamist opposition in Algeria is to some extent value-driven, but it is mostly a reaction to undesirable local conditions, especially economic distress, widespread poverty, and unjust distribution of national wealth. Thus, the article suggests that positive actions be taken to deal with these issues if the religious opposition is to be successfully managed in Algeria.
One of the clearest aspects of the post-Cold War era is the rise of religion as a social and political movement around the globe, and, by extension, the growing number of religiously-driven conflicts. This trend appears to be more evident in the Middle East, although it is not limited to this particular region. The secular governments in the Middle East have been frequently challenged, sometimes quite seriously, by Islamist oppositions that want to establish a state based on religious rules. The clash between government forces and militant Islamists often resulted in severe casualties, in which many innocent people, foreigners, as well as fighting sides themselves became victims.
In order to manage religious opposition and cope with its conflict-prone effects, it is necessary to understand the nature of such opposition. Algeria offers a valuable case study, since although the country—unlike many Middle Eastern countries—has no tradition of early Islamic revivalism, the secular government was seriously challenged by political Islamism in the 1990s and only survived with the help of the military. Subsequently, violent clashes lasting about a decade erupted, as a result of which the Algerian people suffered. Though the violence evidently decreased from 2002 and on, the conflict between the secularists and Islamists has continued to some extent. Read more ..
Global Economy on Edge
|George Friedman||August 21st 2011|
Classical political economists like Adam Smith or David Ricardo never used the term “economy” by itself. They always used the term “political economy.” For classical economists, it was impossible to understand politics without economics or economics without politics. The two fields are certainly different but they are also intimately linked. The use of the term “economy” by itself did not begin until the late 19th century. Smith understood that while an efficient market would emerge from individual choices, those choices were framed by the political system in which they were made, just as the political system was shaped by economic realities. For classical economists, the political and economic systems were intertwined, each dependent on the other for its existence.
The current economic crisis is best understood as a crisis of political economy. Moreover, it has to be understood as a global crisis enveloping the United States, Europe and China that has different details but one overriding theme: the relationship between the political order and economic life. On a global scale, or at least for most of the world’s major economies, there is a crisis of political economy. Let’s consider how it evolved. Read more ..
Inside Latin America
|William Moore ||August 19th 2011|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
In March 2007 in a U.S. District Court, Chiquita Brands International pled guilty to one count of “Engaging in Transactions with a Specially-Designated Global Terrorist.” The banana giant confessed to paying the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), the nation’s notoriously violent network of right-wing paramilitary groups, USD 1.7 million in over one hundred payments between 1997 and 2004. Yet the case was resolved by a cash settlement, thus failing to publicly expose both sides of their quid pro quo relationship. A 2011 declassification of Chiquita documents, confessions by former paramilitaries, and ongoing lawsuits lay bare the U.S. corporation’s ruthless profiteering and invite cautious hope of justice for the victims.
The Rise of Paramilitaries
The AUC paramilitaries have their roots in Colombia’s internal armed conflict. The violence began in 1948 in Bogotá as a bloody civil war between Liberals and Conservatives. The partisan warfare ended with the National Front, a political pact that snubbed dissident factions of Liberals, Communists, self-defense communities, and independent peasant organizations. By the 1960s and 1970s, the conflict had morphed into a guerrilla insurgency against the state, which sought to rectify a history of inequality and social exclusion. Read more ..
The Arab Spring
|George Friedman||August 16th 2011|
On Dec. 17, 2010, Mohammed Bouazizi, a Tunisian street vendor, set himself on fire in a show of public protest. The self-immolation triggered unrest in Tunisia and ultimately the resignation of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. This was followed by unrest in a number of Arab countries that the global press dubbed the “Arab Spring.” The standard analysis of the situation was that oppressive regimes had been sitting on a volcano of liberal democratic discontent. The belief was that the Arab Spring was a political uprising by masses demanding liberal democratic reform and that this uprising, supported by Western democracies, would generate sweeping political change across the Arab world.
It is now more than six months since the beginning of the Arab Spring, and it is important to take stock of what has happened and what has not happened. The reasons for the widespread unrest go beyond the Arab world, although, obviously, the dynamics within that world are important in and of themselves. Read more ..
America's Economic Edge
|Michael Hudson||August 7th 2011|
The dizzying stock market plunge on August 4 is a sign that the U.S. financial system still needs serious reform, advocates for tougher regulation of the financial industry say.
The market swoon – the steepest drop in U.S. stocks since the 2008 financial crisis – comes amid a continuing debate over the economic impact of regulations to carry out the Wall Street reform law.
If the Democrats “had anything on the ball they would be hammering away at the notion that it was because of the lack of oversight that the market is crashing,” John Taylor, executive director of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, told iWatch News.
“The roots of our recession and continuing economic decline are firmly dug into the soil of deregulation. Every day the market drops is an opportunity for those who passed Dodd-Frank to remind people that oversight, accountability and the rule of law matter immensely – we need a free market, free to compete but also free from abuse and unsavory practices,” Taylor said. Read more ..
Peru on Edge
|Nancy Menges and Luis Fleischman||August 5th 2011|
The Americas Report
Ollanta Humala, the new president of Peru, called attention to the constitution during his swearing in ceremony as he promised to honor the principles of the 1979 constitution and not the current one enacted and approved by popular referendum in 1993.
Humala has long considered the 1993 constitution illegitimate given the fact it was drafted and approved during the presidency of Alberto Fujimori. In 1992, Fujimori staged a coup d’état by dissolving Congress as a result of a legislative paralysis. The coup was widely protested by the Organization of Americans States (OAS) and the international community. In 1995, democracy was restored in Peru with the election of Fujimori to a second term.
Humala has repeatedly stated his preference for the 1979 constitution. The constitution of 1993 expanded the powers of the president to dissolve congress and to declare states of exception, and places promotion of military personnel in the hands of the president without requiring congressional ratification. At the social level, the constitution withdraws the role of the state to free elementary education and also placed barriers to trade unions. Read more ..
Edge on Terrorism
|Massimo Introvigne||July 27th 2011|
At first, the media called Anders Behring Breivik a Christian fundamentalist, some of them even a Roman Catholic. This shows the cavalier use of the word “fundamentalist” prevailing today in several quarters. In fact, Breivik is something different, as evidenced by his videos, his postings on document.no and his 1,500-page book 2083 – A European Declaration of Independence which, interestingly enough, was first made publicly available on the Internet by Kevin Slaughter, an ordained minister in Anton LaVey's Church of Satan which, by the way, has a sizeable following in Norway.
Looking at his Facebook profile, one immediately notices Breivik’s strong interest in Freemasonry and his photograph in full Masonic regalia. The apron identifies him as a member of a St. John’s Lodge of the Norwegian Order of Freemasons, the “regular” Masonic obedience in Norway. The circumstance that he was indeed a member of the Søilene St. John’s Lodge in Oslo has been confirmed by the Order, which proceeded to expel Breivik only after his imprisonment. St. John’s Lodges administer the first three Craft degrees and operate under the Swedish rite. Read more ..
Germany on Edge
|Peter Zeihan and Marko Papic||July 26th 2011|
Seventeen months ago, we described how the future of Europe was bound to the decision-making processes in Germany. Throughout the post-World War II era, other European countries treated Germany as a feeding trough, bleeding the country for resources (primarily financial) in order to smooth over the rougher portions of their systems. Considering the carnage wrought in World War II, most Europeans — and even many Germans — considered this perfectly reasonable right up to the current decade. Germany dutifully followed the orders of the others, most notably the French, and wrote check after check to underwrite European solidarity.
However, with the end of the Cold War and German reunification, the Germans began to stand up for themselves once again. Europe’s contemporary financial crisis can be as complicated as one wants to make it, but strip away all the talk of bonds, defaults and credit-default swaps and the core of the matter consists of these three points:
Europe cannot function as a unified entity unless someone is in control. Read more ..
|Daniel Whalen||July 26th 2011|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
Canada’s mining industry is the largest in the world, and in 2004 its world market share accounted for 60 percent of all mining companies. In fact, the entire Latin American region is second only to Canada in terms of the breadth of its mining exploration and development activity. In what some call the “halo effect,” Canadian industries have been perceived as the more conscientious alternative to their U.S. equivalents. Since Canadian industries are understood to have socially responsible practices, especially in contrast to those of American companies, they are typically welcomed abroad.
Nonetheless, recent accusations that the Canadian mining company Pacific Rim played a role in the death squad killings of anti-mining activists in El Salvador has brought this reputation into question, while further investigation into the Canadian government’s regulation reveals that the government has mandated no true restrictions on its industry’s mining practices abroad. Read more ..
Egypt after Mubarak
|David Schenker||July 25th 2011|
|Cairo at Night (credit: Hyo Lee)|
This country is 7,000 years old. It has seen so many transitions … and our last transition was through the assassination of our former president [Anwar Sadat], and yet we were able to steady the course.
— Former Egyptian prime minister Ahmed Nazif, September 29, 2010
For the past thirty years, Washington has relied on Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt, along with Israel, to form the foundation of its regional security architecture. While authoritarianism has contributed to growing resentment and ultimately instability at home, Egypt under Mubarak was a decades-long partner, helping the United States advance its core objectives of peace and stability in the Middle East. For Egyptians, the Papyrus Revolution and the end of the Mubarak era have been an unmitigated cause for celebration and optimism. For the United States, however, this period of transition is characterized by trepidation as well as hope. Read more ..
Edge on Terrorism
|Martin Barillas||July 24th 2011|
Cutting Edge Senior Correspondent
|Ahmed Versi, editor of The Muslim Times|
Ahmed Versi, the editor of Britain's The Muslim News, drew parallels between Norway’s bombing and massacre on July 22 to the devastating bomb set off by Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City OK in 1995. Versi said “When the news of the bombing broke all the media, including al Jazeera English, began speculating that the perpetrators could be al-Qaeda, Islamists, Islamic terrorists.” The Muslim News claims to be Britain’s leading Muslim news organization. According to The Muslim News, the paper “monitors the numerous Islamophobic attacks in Britain,” while Versi added that speculation even extended to the possibility that the Libyan government could be behind the blast in Oslo and the subsequent killing of young campers. Versi mused that there was “no mention of right wing extremists.” Read more ..
Egypt After Mubarak
|Eric Trager||July 24th 2011|
Washington Institute on Near East Policy
Egypt's political future is being decided by the military, the Muslim Brotherhood, and protest groups in the streets.
On July 21, Egyptian prime minister Essam Sharaf swore in a new cabinet in front of Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). During the Mubarak era, changing ministers was a rare event. These days, it is becoming an almost routine occurrence -- but one with only peripheral importance in Egyptian politics.
Currently, three groups are battling for the country's political future, and the civilian government is not among them. First is the SCAF, which has controlled the country since Hosni Mubarak's February resignation. Second is the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which has formed alliances with most major political parties and will likely prevail in this fall's parliamentary elections. Third are the protestors, who continue to pursue their demands through mass demonstrations that often bring daily activity in downtown Cairo and other key areas to a halt. Read more ..
|Martin Barillas||July 22nd 2011|
Cutting Edge Senior Correspondent
The diamond industry and tensions between the Muslim militant community and the Hindus may be two key elements to understanding the background to the deadly and recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai. As Rev. Cedric Prakash, a Catholic priest and Director of the Centre for Human Rights, Justice and Peace 'Prashant' in Ahmedabad in Gujarat reported, "it is difficult to understand what and who inspired the attacks in Mumbai. The police are working hard. Certainly it is clear that specific business areas were affected, such as those of the diamond trade, in which the population of Gujarat is very present".
According to FIDES news service, Fr. Prakash continued, "It is known, moreover, that the massacres of 2002 in Gujarat, where over 2,000 Muslims were killed by Hindu extremist groups, have not been forgotten by many. Read more ..
Egypt after Mubarak
|David Schenker||July 18th 2011|
|Former Presidents Hosni Mubarak, George W Bush|
The U.S.-Egypt bilateral relationship developed rapidly following the 1978 Camp David Accords. While the ties spanned many fields, the foundation of the contact was the military relationship. As a memo from the U.S. embassy in Cairo explained in 2009:
President Mubarak and military leaders view our military assistance program as the cornerstone of our mil-mil relationship and consider the USD 1.3 billion in annual FMF [foreign military financing] as “untouchable compensation” for making and maintaining peace with Israel. The tangible benefits to our mil-mil relationship are clear: Egypt remains at peace with Israel, and the U.S. military enjoys priority access to the Suez Canal and Egyptian airspace. Read more ..
Syria vs Lebanon
|Jonathan Spyer||July 17th 2011|
|Walid Jumblatt, Nabib Berri|
This week, beleaguered Syrian dictator Bashar Assad gave a speech in which he referred to protesters as “vandals” and re-issued a tired promise of reforms. The speech did nothing to lessen the anger of his opponents, and the uprising against the regime is continuing apace.
Yet in neighboring Lebanon in the same week, the Assad regime and its allies scored a signal achievement. After 140 days of wrangling, Syria, Hezbollah, and its allies held the first meeting of the new, pro-Syrian government in Beirut. Read more ..
Mexico on Edge
|Winston Hanks||July 16th 2011|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
The effectiveness of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in reducing immigration levels in a given country is well documented within the European Union (E.U.) as part of the E.U. regional policy governing admittance of new member states. Given the current failure of U.S. policies to stem tides of illegal immigration from Mexico, Washington policymakers would do well to better understand the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a vehicle for adapting a similar FDI-centered approach towards the problem.
Yet Washington must coordinate such a policy along with the understanding that such an approach is intimately dependant on political stability in the region, and thus must only be undertaken alongside a revamped effort towards combating the out- of-control drug-trafficking trade within Mexico. Read more ..
Brazil on Edge
|Elizabeth Rust ||July 16th 2011|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
A string of recent events indicates that Amazonian deforestation and violence against environmental activists are on the rise. The Brazilian Congress’s lower house approves a bill that weakens protection of the rainforest—which may explain the drastic increase in deforestation, as land clearers anticipate amnesty for their crimes.
Given Brazil’s historical disregard for the Amazon rainforest’s global importance, and the legislature’s evident lack of commitment to resolving the issue, a strong and long-term executive response is urgently needed. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Barry Rubin||July 12th 2011|
In Damascus, a mob organized by the Asad regime attacked the U.S. and French embassies. The French guards fired into the air, wounding two, and the demonstrators stopped. Three French embassy workers were injured. At the U.S. embassy while Syrian guards fired teargas, the U.S. Marines didn’t fire and the mob surged into the embassy breaking windows and wrecking at least part of the building for two and a half hours as Syrian security forces stood by.
Those are the basic facts. The question is: what does this mean and what will the Obama Administration do about it. Read more ..
The Battle for Libya
|George Friedman||July 12th 2011|
The war in Libya has been under way for months, without any indication of when it might end. Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s faction has been stronger and more cohesive than imagined and his enemies weaker and more divided. This is not unusual. There is frequently a perception that dictators are widely hated and that their power will collapse when challenged. That is certainly true at times, but often the power of a dictator is rooted in the broad support of an ideological faction, an ethnic group or simply those who benefit from the regime. As a result, naive assumptions of rapid regime change are quite often replaced by the reality of protracted conflict. Read more ..
Egypt after Mubarak
|David Schenker||July 11th 2011|
In recent years, Egypt has seen its regional influence erode precipitously. Decades have passed since Cairo was the diplomatic, cultural, and intellectual hub of the Middle East. But the extent of Egypt’s decline has become even more pronounced of late, as the state has focused increasingly on internal matters related to political transition. Today, on almost every front--and regardless of the recent political upheaval-- Egypt evokes a waning regional power.
Until Mubarak was deposed, Washington consulted with this elder statesman on regional issues. Indeed, the Obama administration invited Mubarak—one of only two Arab heads of state—to the White House to attend the resurrection of Israeli- Palestinian peace talks in August 2010. But there were few illusions as to his ability to influence either the Israelis or the Palestinians on key matters. It had been years since Mubarak could compel a Palestinian leader—like then rais (president) Yasser Arafat in 1995—to sign an Oslo II agreement with Israel that Arafat considered unpalatable.
Cairo’s diplomacy on regional issues has also proven largely anemic. On Sudan, not only did Egypt have nothing to say about the Darfur genocide—in March 2009, Amr Mousa, the Egyptian secretary general of the Arab League, “reject[ed]” the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for the arrest of Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir—the former government projected ambivalence about the impending breakup of its southern neighbor. In its final years, the Mubarak regime showed vigor on basically one foreign policy issue alone—that of Iran, along with its terrorist allies Hamas and Hizballah. Since 2008, Cairo took some modest steps to shore up its strategic position vis-à-vis Tehran. Read more ..
The 2012 Vote
|Aaron Mehta and Peter H. Stone||July 11th 2011|
As President Obama and his Republican challengers raced towards the June 30 reporting deadline, a flurry of desperate-sounding emails went out to Obama supporters around the country.
“Anyone worth their salt in politics knows tonight is one of the most important tests we'll face as a campaign this year” bellowed an email from Obama campaign manager Jim Messina, sent hours ahead of the midnight deadline and encouraging donors to give $5, $10 or $15 extra.
But as the campaign begged for small bills, the president, the first lady and the vice president were hosting luxury fundraisers where huge checks were collected, a stark contrast to the calls for small donors. The Obamas and Joe Biden combined to attend 45 fundraising events between early April and early July, an impressive number for this early in the cycle. Read more ..
Egypt after the Revolt
|Dina Guirguis||July 6th 2011|
Washington Institute for Near East Affairs
On July 1 and 8, protestors plan to hold demonstrations in Cairo's Tahrir Square. If they experience the same violent repression seen at the June 28-29 protests, however, many will begin to question how much has actually changed since the days of former president Hosni Mubarak.
On June 27, families of the martyrs of the Lotus Revolution were reportedly attacked by elements of "state security" at an event honoring them, and news of the incident was rapidly and widely disseminated through social media. By late night, June 27, thousands of protestors had poured into Tahrir Square to join in solidarity with the martyrs' families. They too were attacked with tear gas, rubber bullets, and, reportedly, electric prods -- a scene eerily reminiscent of the most violent days of the revolution. Similar events unfolded on June 28 as well.
Although the facts remain murky, the Ministry of Interior allegedly carried out the sustained attacks in collusion with hired "thugs." The sheer magnitude of the attacks, their brutality, and the highly mysterious and sudden resurgence of elements from within the despised state security apparatus raise questions about the extent to which Egyptians have truly dismantled the former regime. Read more ..
The Edge of Terrorism
|Scott Stewart||July 5th 2011|
On June 22 in a Seattle warehouse, Abu Khalid Abdul-Latif pulled an unloaded M16 rifle to his shoulder, aimed it, and pulled the trigger repeatedly as he imagined himself gunning down young U.S. military recruits. His longtime friend Walli Mujahidh did likewise with an identical rifle, assuming a kneeling position as he engaged his notional targets. The two men had come to the warehouse with another man to inspect the firearms the latter had purchased with money Abdul-Latif had provided him. The rifles and a small number of hand grenades were to be used in an upcoming mission: an attack on a U.S. Military Entrance Processing Station (MEPS) in an industrial area south of downtown Seattle.
After confirming that the rifles were capable of automatic fire and discussing the capacity of the magazines they had purchased, the men placed the rifles back into a storage bag intending to transport them to a temporary cache location. Read more ..
Egypt after Mubarak
|David Schenker||July 5th 2011|
Unlike Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution, Egypt’s Papyrus Revolution was not sparked primarily by economic grievances. Dissatisfaction with authoritarian government—and especially with Hosni Mubarak— served as the chief mobilizing factor in the demonstrations. While the economy was not the primary issue galvanizing these particular protests, however, it does animate much of today’s popular discontent in Egypt.
Hosni Mubarak’s thirty-year rule was not characterized by innovative or dynamic policies. But in 2004—for reasons that remain unclear—he took a risk, appointing a new cabinet, the composition of which signaled a change in approach on economic policy, at least. The fourteen new members of the thirty-four-member cabinet were not old National Democratic Party (NDP) warhorses but rather younger businessmen and technocrats. Read more ..
Russia on Edge
|Lauren Goodrich||July 5th 2011|
Russia has entered election season, with parliamentary elections in December and presidential elections in March 2012. Typically, this is not an issue of concern, as most Russian elections have been designed to usher a chosen candidate and political party into office since 2000. Interesting shifts are under way this election season, however. While on the surface they may resemble political squabbles and instability, they actually represent the next step in the Russian leadership’s consolidation of the state.
In the past decade, one person has consolidated and run Russia’s political system: former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Putin’s ascension to the leadership of the Kremlin marked the start of the reconsolidation of the Russian state after the decade of chaos that followed the fall of the Soviet Union. Read more ..
Europe on Edge
|Marko Papic||June 29th 2011|
Europe continues to be engulfed by economic crisis. The global focus returns to Athens on June 28 as Greek parliamentarians debate austerity measures imposed on them by eurozone partners. If the Greeks vote down these measures, Athens will not receive its second bailout, which could create an even worse crisis in Europe and the world.
It is important to understand that the crisis is not fundamentally about Greece or even about the indebtedness of the entire currency bloc. After all, Greece represents only 2.5 percent of the eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP), and the bloc’s fiscal numbers are not that bad when looked at in the aggregate. Its overall deficit and debt figures are in a better shape than those of the United States—the U.S. budget deficit stood at 10.6 percent of GDP in 2010, compared to 6.4 percent for the European Union—yet the focus continues to be on Europe. Read more ..
Egypt after Mubarak
|David Schenker||June 29th 2011|
As the Ahmed Ezz and Hisham Talaat Mustafa examples amply show, the narrative propagated by the National Democratic Party (NDP) of a government run by technocratic and competent businessmen was not widely embraced in Egypt. Instead, despite overwhelming obstacles, a dedicated opposition developed over the years. While fragmented, infiltrated, and periodically brutalized by the government, secular and Islamist dissidents protested, remonstrated, signed petitions, and worked to embarrass the authoritarian leadership. These adversaries of the NDP hoped to capitalize on popular anti-regime sentiment, even as the security state continuously targeted them as emerging political threats. Read more ..
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