The Nuclear Edge
|George Friedman||January 3rd 2011|
Late last year, the U.S. Senate gave its advice and consent to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which had been signed in April.
The Russian legislature still has to provide final approval of the treaty, but it is likely to do so, and therefore a New START is set to go into force. That leaves two questions to discuss. First, what exactly have the two sides agreed to and, second, what does it mean? Let’s begin with the first. The original START was signed July 31, 1991, and reductions were completed in 2001. The treaty put a cap on the number of nuclear warheads that could be deployed. In addition to limiting the number of land- and submarine-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and strategic bombers, it capped the number of warheads that were available to launch at 6,000. The fact that this is a staggering number of nuclear weapons should give you some idea of the staggering number in existence prior to START. START I lapsed in 2009, and the new treaty is essentially designed to reinstate it. Read more ..
Sudan on Edge
|Ashenafi Abedje||January 3rd 2011|
Voice of America
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is a set of protocols signed in January 2005 between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Government of Sudan.
It is facilitated through a regional effort by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development and the international community, namely the United States, the United Kingdom and Norway. The agreement aimed at ending the second Sudanese civil war, develop democratic governance in the country, and share oil revenues on an equitable basis. The agreement also set a timetable by which southern Sudan would conduct a referendum on its future. So how effective has the CPA been in achieving its intended objectives? Read more ..
Brazil and Palestine
|Luis Fleischman||December 27th 2010|
Cutting Edge Latin America analyst
|José Inázio Lula Da Silva and Mahmoud Abbas|
In December, Brazil recognized the creation of a Palestinian state (with pre-1967 borders) while the U.S was making serious efforts to bring the Israelis and Palestinians together. The creation of a Palestinian state has been supported not only by President Barack Obama and his predecessor George W. Bush but also by every Israeli Prime Minister in the last decade including the current one, Benjamin Netanyahu. This move, was followed by Argentina and Bolivia; most likely, Uruguay will follow early next year. However, Brazil’s leadership and initiative in this endeavor is clear. Read more ..
Wikileaks on the Edge
|George Friedman||December 27th 2010|
Julian Assange has declared that geopolitics will be separated into pre-“Cablegate” and post-“Cablegate” eras. That was a bold claim. However, given the intense interest that the leaks produced, it is a claim that ought to be carefully considered. Several weeks have passed since the first of the diplomatic cables were released, and it is time now to address the following questions: First, how significant were the leaks? Second, how could they have happened? Third, was their release a crime? Fourth, what were their consequences? Finally, and most important, is the WikiLeaks premise that releasing government secrets is a healthy and appropriate act a tenable position?
Let’s begin by recalling that the U.S. State Department documents constituted the third wave of leaks. The first two consisted of battlefield reports from Iraq and Afghanistan. Looking back on those as a benchmark, it is difficult to argue that they revealed information that ran counter to informed opinion. I use the term “informed opinion” deliberately. For someone who was watching Iraq and Afghanistan with some care over the previous years, the leaks might have provided interesting details but they would not have provided any startling distinction between the reality that was known and what was revealed. If, on the other hand, you weren’t paying close attention, and WikiLeaks provided your first and only view of the battlefields in any detail, you might have been surprised. Read more ..
The EU on Edge
|Peter Zeihan||December 27th 2010|
Europe is on the cusp of change. An EU heads-of-state summit December 16 launched a process aimed to save the common European currency. If successful, this process would be the most significant step toward creating a singular European power since the creation of the European Union itself in 1992 — that is, if it doesn’t destroy the euro first.
Envisioned by the EU Treaty on Monetary Union, the common currency, the euro, has suffered from two core problems during its decade-long existence: the lack of a parallel political union and the issue of debt. Many in the financial world believe that what is required for a viable currency is a fiscal union that has taxation power — and that is indeed needed. Read more ..
Edge on Immigration
|Jena Baker McNeill||December 27th 2010|
Last weekend, the United States Senate voted not to proceed to a final vote on the House-passed Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act. This bill would have given legal permanent resident status to illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. before the age of 16 and who agreed to attend college or enter the military. In this way the bill would have granted amnesty to around 2.8 million illegal immigrants inside the U.S.
Now that Congress has rejected the “amnesty” strategy once again, it is time for the Administration to put this unrealistic approach aside once and for all and begin a serious, practical, and honest approach to fixing America’s broken borders and flawed immigration system. Pushing the issue off on the next generation or using immigration as a tool to win votes through amnesty is not only irresponsible but wrong in terms of national security, the rule of law, and economic prosperity.
Not a New Problem
The number of illegal immigrants inside the U.S. topped off at around 12 million. Since the recent economic recession began, numbers have decreased to around 10.8 million. In 1986, the U.S. attempted to handle the issue by granting amnesty to the 2.7 million illegal immigrants inside the U.S. at that time. This amnesty, however, worsened the illegal immigration problem, encouraging more individuals to cross the border illegally and stay in the U.S Read more ..
Inside Latin America
|Alex Sanchez||December 21st 2010|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
In 2008, Russia fought a five-day war with Georgia, an independent nation in the southern Caucasus, which gained its independence following the breakup of the Soviet Union. While the details of the incident remain controversial, it is generally agreed that Georgia was the aggressor. One critical consequence of the conflict was that two Georgian separatist regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, were recognized relatively quickly as independent states by four countries: Russia, the Pacific island of Nauru and the Latin American countries of Venezuela and Nicaragua.
Why were Venezuela and Nicaragua persuaded to recognize the two separatist states and what is the likelihood of a subsequent Latin American wave of recognition taking place? The experience of South Ossetia and Abkhazia may help highlight two distinct factors involved in the recognition process:
First, although there is no recognition policy in effect, Latin American states tend to extend recognition to states outside the hemisphere principally based on a closely-felt geopolitical sense of national interest as opposed to a clear understanding of the merits and facts of a given conflict or transition. Second, due to forces of globalization, Latin American countries are now extending ties to areas of previously little interest.
Read more ..
|Kent Patterson||December 21st 2010|
December on the US-Mexico border is a time of family, faith and fiesta. Every year, thousands pay homage to the Virgin of Guadalupe. While throngs jam international bridges for holiday shopping excursions, lively gatherings of friends and family on both sides of the border enjoy tamales, posole and festive times. But in Ciudad Juarez, the month of December also is a time of funerals, fear, frustration and fury. Roaring, non-stop violence related to the so-called narco war continues to claim lives right up to the holidays. Read more ..
Middel East Peace
|Robert Satloff||December 13th 2010|
The recent announcement that the Obama administration has ended efforts to negotiate a ninety-day extension of Israel's moratorium on West Bank settlement construction is more opportunity than embarrassment. After twenty-two months of near-fruitless efforts to promote Israeli-Palestinian negotiations conditioned on a total cessation of Israeli settlement activity, the administration can finally focus its efforts on the substance of its diplomatic mission -- to test the tantalizing proposition that the current Israeli and Palestinian leaderships may be closer to agreement on the core issues at contention than is commonly recognized. Read more ..
Islam on Edge
|Rachel Ehrenfeld||December 13th 2010|
American Center for Democracy
The list of prominent U.S. admirers of Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia’s former Deputy Prime Minister, on trial for corruption and sodomy, is impressive. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, former President of the World Bank James Wolfensohn, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Letters of support on his behalf praise his leadership and fight “for international justice, peace and development.” Strangely, these prominent figures fail to notice that Anwar’s fight is not for democracy, justice and peace according to Western principles. Instead, his call is for democratization “on the platform of Islam.”
It is Anwar’s constant advocacy of Islamic rule that led the Qatar-based spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Yusuf Qaradawi, to join the defenders of the Malay politician. Read more ..
The Roadway’s Edge
|Ryan Phillips||December 13th 2010|
Trucker Bob Caffee needed a medical card fast. His U.S. Department of Transportation medical certificate was to expire in two days, and he was in Southern California, halfway across the country from his regular doctor in Missouri.
So Caffee did what many drivers do: He headed to one of the medical clinics that have sprung up at truck stops across America.
The clinic in Ontario, Calif., where Caffee stopped is housed in a small, rundown building next to a Travel Centers of America truck stop. A sign advertises “DOT Physicals” next to a picture of a red truck.
“You go in there, and there’s a little girl sitting behind the desk, and you say, ‘I need a DOT physical,’ and she says, ‘OK, come back here and I’ll call the doctor,’” Caffee said. Read more ..
Israelis and Palestinians
|David Pollock||December 13th 2010|
Amid the latest setback in the peace process -- the ongoing failure to agree on a "peace talks for settlement freeze" deal -- Palestinian public opinion trends reveal unexpected flexibility on short-term tactics, but also troubling long-term intentions. Five public opinion polls of West Bank and Gaza Palestinians taken by five different reputable pollsters in October-November 2010 show a very mixed picture.
On the positive side, and contrary to conventional wisdom, the Palestinian public backs a resumption of peace talks with Israel, even without preconditions. Surprisingly, support for rejectionist actors such as Hamas or Iran is very low by recent standards. And several polls show that a majority of West Bank and Gaza Palestinians would accept a two-state peace solution with Israel, with half even willing to recognize Israel as a Jewish state alongside a Palestinian one.
At the same time, when asked explicitly about whether a settlement freeze should be a precondition for resuming direct negotiations, Palestinians are widely in support. Moreover, although a majority of them claim to back a two-state solution, an even larger majority clearly continue to harbor irredentist claims over pre-1967 Israel as well. These findings raise questions about whether the Palestinian Authority (PA) is leading or following public opinion -- and whether peace talks, even if they can be renewed, will ever result in an agreement grounded in enduring popular acceptance. Read more ..
Iran in Latin America
|Geoff LeGrand||December 6th 2010|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
|Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad|
As concern grows in Washington over the potential threat that Iran poses to the United States and its allies, scant attention has been given to the Islamic Republic’s expanding influence in Latin America. In the past year, a number of events revealed Iran’s increasing links to the region, most of which have been economic in nature, although political gambits have also proved important. While Iran’s increased involvement in Latin America may have the potential to present a threat to U.S. security, such threats may be overstated and not a justified concern.
Despite what those seeking to demonize the Latin American left would have the U.S. public believe, the security implications of an Iranian presence in the region may well be minimal. Rather, the relationship is more likely to challenge Washington’s ability to exert itself abroad. Read more ..
|Mitchell Bard||December 6th 2010|
Cutting Edge Commentator
In light of the thousands of secret documents and cables released by the whistle-blowing site WikiLeaks in late November, it is clear that Israel is neither alone in its concern over the Iranian government’s budding nuclear weapons program, nor in its desire to see that program destroyed. Western media outlets have consistently harped on deep concerns over the Iranian march toward becoming a nuclear power, however much of the Arab world also feels threatened by Iran and harbor similar, if not more extreme, views towards confronting Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
While most nations in the Arab world continue to state publicly that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the greatest threat to the region, the WikiLeaks cables tell a different story. The leaked documents, many of which detail meetings between U.S. diplomats and high-ranking officials in Arab governments, expose how many Arab states in the Middle East feel threatened by the prospect of a nuclear Tehran and are advocating for military action. As Mustafa El-Labbad, director of the Al-Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies in Cairo, notes, WikiLeaks unveiled to the world that “the official stance in the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia and including Egypt, Jordan, UAE, and Bahrain is that Iran—Israel—poses the main threat to the region.” Read more ..
Africa on Edge
|Martyn Drakard||December 6th 2010|
Cutting Edge Africa Correspondent
In January 2011, the people of southern Sudan are to vote in a referendum whether or not they want a separate country of their own or remain united to the North as one country, now known as Sudan. Will this be the last country in sub-Saharan Africa to gain its independence, exactly 55 years after its first “independence” from a colonial power? For most southern Sudanese, the Khartoum government has treated them as colonial subjects, or worse: abducted into slavery, the region left undeveloped, its resources extracted with little of the profits returning to the South; fierce and cruel civil wars; ensuring the main tribes are kept disunited, little say in power-sharing, massive flight of refugees, and human rights violations.
This year, 2010, about 20 African countries –most of them former French colonies, and Somalia- celebrate their 50th independence anniversary. Within the next three years much of Anglophone Africa would follow suit, with the notable exception of Southern Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), which declared its own kind of independence, UDI (Unilateral Declaration of Independence) from Britain, under the White rule of Ian Smith, and the country called itself Rhodesia, until Robert Mugabe took over in 1980. South Africa was the last with a majority Black population to become independent in 1994 with Nelson Mandela as president, holding out the hand of reconciliation to its sizable, powerful and educated White minority. Read more ..
Immigration on the Edge
|Robert Valencia||November 29th 2010|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
In May 2008, a massive immigration raid took place on the Postville, Iowa-based kosher slaughterhouse Agriprocessors, Inc. The result of the raid was the apprehension of nearly 400 people, most of whom originally hailed from a small town in Guatemala called San José Calderas. One of the largest such roundups in the history of U.S. immigration enforcement, the Postville raid led to the shutdown of the facility and the imprisonment of some of the plant’s senior management, constituting a large economic blow to the entire community.
Two years later, the repercussions from the raid are still visible in the Iowa community. Postville Mayor Leigh Rekow acknowledged that the city “is still dealing with some of the negative issues in the past.” In April 2010, Postville’s infamous slaughterhouse took on a new persona; reopening under Canadian ownership, the rebranded “Agri Star” plant now employs 560 people. Read more ..
|David J. Danelo||November 22nd 2010|
Foreign Policy Research Institute
|Mexican naval infantry|
The regional differences in Mexico's drug war make little sense to Americans. Until October 24, when gunmen massacred 14 patients at a Tijuana drug rehab clinic, Baja California, a hotbed of violence in 2009, had started to stabilize during 2010. The Rio Grande, in contrast, has gone from mostly tranquil to normally uncontrolled. Consider the recent story of David and Tiffany Hartley, a married couple, who had moved to the border from Colorado three years earlier for a job in the oil industry. Read more ..
|Martin Barillas||November 22nd 2010|
Cutting Edge Senior Correspondent
|Muslims circumambulate the Kaaba at Mecca|
In his midday sermon on November 15 to millions of Muslim pilgrims gathered on the plain of Arafah for the annual Hajj to Mecca, Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Aziz Al Sheikh called for religious moderation and affirmed that Islam prohibits terrorism, extremism, and injustice. In the United States, Nihad Awad of the Council on American Islamic Affairs welcomed the cleric’s words, saying “It is extremely significant that such a prominent Muslim leader would offer a clear statement condemning terrorism and religious extremism during the largest Islamic gathering in the world and on the most important day on Islam's spiritual calendar.”
In a press release, Awad was quoted, “The importance of the Grand Mufti's statement is made even more significant given the fact that it was delivered in the same spot as the last sermon offered by the Prophet Muhammad.” Making reference to terrorism wrought by Muslim extremists, Awad added, “This statement from Islam's spiritual capital should put to rest once and for all the false claim that Muslim leaders do not condemn terrorism.” Awad urged Muslim leaders in America and worldwide to incorporate the Grand Mufti's statement in prayers to be offered on November 16 to mark the end of Hajj. Read more ..
|Michael Eisenstadt||November 22nd 2010|
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
|Iranian Qiam missile launch|
The new “Strategic Concept” that NATO is expected to adopt at its Lisbon summit this weekend offers the advantage of an early initial capability to defend Europe against the emerging Iranian ballistic missile threat, even though—in deference to Turkish sensibilities—NATO is not expected to identify Iran as the source of the threat. For now, the Islamic Republic is unable to reach targets in Eastern Europe, but that could change as early as 2012 if Tehran decides to commence production of the medium-range Sajjil-2 missile. And because the NATO concept hinges first on the deployment of ship-based missile systems to the eastern Mediterranean, followed later by the deployment of land-based interceptors, it entails certain vulnerabilities that Iran could exploit in the near term. Read more ..
The Transportation Edge
|Stevie Mathieu||November 15th 2010|
In 1991, a mechanic at a Turkish repair shop overhauled an engine on a U.S. passenger jet and missed a crack in the engine.
Four years later, on the evening of June 8, 1995, 57 passengers on ValuJet Flight 597 heard a loud bang as the plane sped down a runway in Atlanta. Shrapnel from the damaged engine ripped through a fuel line. The engine and cabin caught on fire. One crew member suffered serious puncture wounds from the shrapnel, and another crew member and five passengers suffered minor injuries.
Thousands of mechanics from all over the world work on U.S. commercial airplanes. Foreign repair stations are located in Canada, Mexico, countries in Central America and Asian countries such as China. Domestically, airplanes are repaired at large facilities in Mobile, Ala., Greensboro, N.C., and Everett, Wash., among many others. Read more ..
The Obama Edge
|Sean J. Miller||November 15th 2010|
Whether Democrats retake the House majority in 2012 will depend in no small part on the popularity of President Obama.
Republicans won control of at least 60 seats on Election Day but more than half of those are in districts the president carried in 2008.
The performance of a party’s presidential candidate is usually a good indicator of its chances in a district’s House race. With that in mind, the incoming class of Republican freshmen will be particularly conscious of Obama’s approval numbers for the next two years, as will Democratic strategists.
"House Democrats have a plethora of pick-up opportunities in 2012 in Republican-held seats that President Obama won,” said Ryan Rudominer, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Targeting districts based on presidential electoral performance is a proven strategy. Read more ..
The Obama Edge
|George Friedman||November 8th 2010|
The 2010 U.S. midterm elections were held, and the results were as expected: The Republicans took the House but did not take the Senate. The Democrats have such a small margin in the Senate, however, that they cannot impose cloture, which means the Republicans can block Obama administration initiatives in both houses of Congress. At the same time, the Republicans cannot override presidential vetoes alone, so they cannot legislate, either. The possible legislative outcomes are thus gridlock or significant compromises. Read more ..
Inside South America
|Nicky Pear||November 8th 2010|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
|Film re-enactors of the War of the Pacific|
On October 19th, Peruvian President Alan García and Bolivian President Evo Morales signed an accord granting Bolivia access to a small stretch of coastline in southern Peru. The deal confirms the “Bolivamar” agreement initially signed in 1992, allowing Bolivia a 99-year lease of the port of Ilo. Consequently, Bolivia will have access to the Pacific Ocean for the first time since it lost its entire coastal region to Chile in the “War of the Pacific” over a century ago. Read more ..
Argentina on Edge
|Martin Barillas and Eduardo Szklarz||November 1st 2010|
Cutting Edge Correspondents
|Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner|
Argentina shows great uncertainty and heightened emotion following the death of former president Néstor Kirchner on October 27. Analysts in the South American republic opine that the country may now be facing a new chapter in politics. Kirchner’s wife, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, followed him as president. But even while the Peronists are now in possession of the presidential palace, and the Kirchner legacy will last at least until the national elections in 2011, the question remains: Who will be the incumbent party’s candidate for the next term in office? Read more ..
Mexico's on the Borderline
|Kent Patterson||November 1st 2010|
Fourteen youths massacred at a house party in Ciudad Juarez. Fourteen men gunned down in a Tijuana drug rehab center. Bodies tossed about the suburbs of Acapulco. Indigenous leader Catarino Torres Pereda assassinated in Oaxaca. Secretly-taped audiotapes and anonymously-posted videos on the Internet stir the sordid pot of a political drama that seems to have a bizarre new twist every day. Such are the headlines from Mexico in recent days. Read more ..
Successions and the Balance
|Simon Henderson||November 1st 2010|
The Washington Institute
|Sheiks Saqr bin Muhammad and|
Saud bin Saqr al-Qasimi
The October 27 death of a long-serving Arab ruler in an obscure Persian Gulf sheikdom has the potential to alter the tense relationship between the region’s Arab states and Iran, while also testing the ruling style and adaptability of hereditary, quasimonarchical Arab states. Tiny but strategically situated Ras al-Khaimah, part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has a long-standing territorial dispute with Tehran: the 1971 loss of two islands to Iranian control was keenly felt by the late Sheikh Saqr bin Muhammad al-Qasimi. Now two of his sons are at odds over who should replace him.
Elder son Sheikh Khaled bin Saqr is effectively under “palace arrest,” with newly installed concertina wire encircling his compound and UAE federal security forces with armored troop carriers serving as guards, preventing him from attending his father’s funeral. The situation is reminiscent of a weekend of turmoil in 2003, when the late Sheikh Saqr switched the title of crown prince from Khaled to a younger son—Saud, Khaled’s half-brother. Back then, shots were fired, and Khaled’s supporters protested in the streets and forced members of the local guard to retreat behind the high walls of the ruler’s palace before UAE forces intervened.
Since then Khaled has waged a public relations battle reaching as far as the United States, from lobbying the halls of power to placing advertisements on the sides of Washington, D.C., buses. His tactics have also included depicting the governing style of Saud—who has served as de facto ruler since 2003 given their father’s increasing age and ill health—as being pro-Iranian. Read more ..
|Ben Giles||October 27th 2010|
The National Transportation Safety Board issued significantly fewer recommendations for improvements in travel safety during the eight years of the George W. Bush administration than during any other presidency in its 36-year history.
An analysis of NTSB data shows that for most of its history the board has been fairly consistent, issuing an average of 300 to 450 safety recommendations a year. But after Bush took office in 2000, the agency’s activity dropped to the lowest level in its history. In 2005, the board issued just 110 recommendations—by far the fewest of any year since the NTSB was established as an independent voice for transportation safety in 1974. Read more ..
Edge on the Mideast
|Simon Henderson||October 27th 2010|
|President George W Bush confers with Prince Bandar|
For a generation, Prince Bandar bin Sultan was Riyadh's man in Washington. As the Saudi ambassador to the United States from 1983 to 2005, he was even dubbed "Bandar Bush" for his close ties to that powerful American political dynasty. After leaving Washington, apparently burned out, he returned to Saudi Arabia to head the newly established Saudi National Security Council, the function of which was not, and still is not, clear. However, he continued to sneak back into the United States periodically because the king quickly decided he preferred Bandar over his successor, Prince Turki al-Faisal, as his channel to the White House -- a situation that eventually led Turki to resign in protest. Read more ..
Deficit on the Edge
|David Nather ||October 27th 2010|
Center for Public Integrity
If Congress had known in 1965 how expensive Medicare would become, it might not have approved the program in the first place. So Lyndon Johnson made sure it didn’t know.
He railed against his budget advisers for trying to predict the long-term costs. “The fools had to go projecting it down the road five or six years,” he complained to Sen. Edward M. Kennedy at the time. Johnson’s allies were getting nervous, according to historians David Blumenthal and James Morone, so Johnson had to hide the price tag. Read more ..
NATO on Edge
|Marko Papic||October 18th 2010|
Twenty-eight heads of state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will meet in Lisbon on Nov. 20 to approve a new “Strategic Concept,” the alliance’s mission statement for the next decade. This will be NATO’s third Strategic Concept since the Cold War ended. The last two came in 1991 — as the Soviet Union was collapsing — and 1999 — as NATO intervened in Yugoslavia, undertaking its first serious military engagement.
During the Cold War, the presence of 50 Soviet and Warsaw Pact armored divisions and nearly 2 million troops west of the Urals spoke far louder than mission statements. While Strategic Concepts were put out in 1949, 1952, 1957 and 1968, they merely served to reinforce NATO’s mission, namely, to keep the Soviets at bay. Today, the debate surrounding NATO’s Strategic Concept itself highlights the alliance’s existential crisis. Read more ..
The Terrorism Edge
|George Friedman||October 11th 2010|
The U.S. government issued a warning on October 3 advising Americans traveling to Europe to be “vigilant.” U.S. intelligence apparently has acquired information indicating that al Qaeda is planning to carry out attacks in European cities similar to those carried out in Mumbai, India, in November 2008. In Mumbai, attackers armed with firearms, grenades and small, timed explosive devices targeted hotels frequented by Western tourists and other buildings in an attack that took three days to put down.
European security forces are far better trained and prepared than their Indian counterparts, and such an attack would be unlikely to last for hours, much less days, in a European country. Still, armed assaults conducted by suicide operatives could be expected to cause many casualties and certainly create a dramatic disruption to economic and social life. Read more ..
|Mitchell Bard||October 8th 2010|
Cutting Edge Senior Commentator
During the 2008 presidential campaign, Barack Obama made clear that one component of his agenda would be to give a high priority to pursuing Arab-Israeli peace. Many Jews had some concerns about Obama, but his pro-Israel statements reassured them, and ultimately nearly 80% voted for him. Obama's appearance before the pro-Israel lobby, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and recitation of talking points from the Israeli lobby playbook were consistent with the popular view of a powerful lobby that demands the fealty of elected officials.
Within a few weeks of taking office as the nation's 44th president, however, Obama seemed to pick a fight with the Israeli government over its settlements policy. He began to publicly demand that Israel freeze all settlement activity. When Israeli officials brought up the fact that certain understandings had been reached with Obama's predecessor regarding what the United States considered to be acceptable construction, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denied any such agreements had been made.
In July 2009, Obama invited a group of Jewish leaders to the White House who were content to hear the President's views and asked only that he refrain from public criticism. Obama made clear he would do no such thing.
Israelis tried to steer the administration away from the settlement issue toward what they believed was the most urgent threat to their nation and the stability of the region, namely, the Iranian nuclear program. Obama's [former] chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, coincidentally a Jew whose father is Israeli, said that the Israeli-Palestinian issue was the crux of solving the Iranian threat. Administration officials argued that the only way they could get Arab states to co-operate in the effort to stop the Iranian program was to solve the Palestinian issue. Read more ..
Edge on Mideast Peace
|David Makovsky||October 4th 2010|
The Washington Institute
With Israel's ten-month moratorium on West Bank settlement construction now expired, Arab League foreign ministers are expected to convene on October 4 to discuss whether the Palestinian Authority (PA) should continue the peace talks. These developments have created a flurry of behind-the-scenes activity in a bid to keep the process alive. For the moment, the settlements issue is central, with challenges related to refugees, Jerusalem, and Gaza set aside. Read more ..
The Obama Edge
|George Friedman||October 4th 2010|
|President Obama at Camp Victory, Iraq.|
Bob Woodward has released another book, this one on the debate over Afghanistan strategy in the Obama administration. As all his books do, the book has riveted Washington. It reveals that intense debate occurred over what course to take, that the president sought alternative strategies and that compromises were reached. But while knowing the details of these things is interesting, what would have been shocking is if they Haydn’t taken place.
It is interesting to reflect on the institutional inevitability of these disagreements. The military is involved in a war. It is institutionally and emotionally committed to victory in the theater of combat. It will demand all available resources for executing the war under way. For a soldier who has bled in that war, questioning the importance of the war is obscene. A war must be fought relentlessly and with all available means. Read more ..
Venezuela on Edge
|Luis Fleischman||September 27th 2010|
Cutting Edge Latin America analyst
|Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro|
On September 26, Venezuela held parliamentary elections. Since Hugo Chavez was elected to the presidency in 1998, Venezuela has been transformed from a country with democratic institutions to one where the president controls all branches of government. The elections serve the purpose of making Chavez look like he is presiding over a free society but in reality provide no real chance for change. In this context, it is important to understand the true nature of the present Venezuelan political reality. Read more ..
The Financial Edge
|Ben Hallman ||September 20th 2010|
Center for Public Integrity
Imagine strolling into Bob’s Sandwich Emporium to discover that the chalkboard behind the counter lists both lunch specials and financing specials.
That pastrami on rye with extra pickles, the board explains, will cost $10 if paying with a debit card, $10.16 if paying with a Visa credit card, and $10.25 if paying with an American Express card.
Quick: which card do you pull out of your wallet?
This scenario is anathema to the card companies and card-issuing banks that reap massive profits on the so-called interchange fees that merchants pay every time a consumer swipes a card. Read more ..
The Obama Edge
|George Friedman||September 20th 2010|
We are now nine weeks away from the midterm elections in the United States. Much can happen in nine weeks, but if the current polls are to be believed, U.S. President Barack Obama is about to suffer a substantial political reversal.
To begin thinking about this, we must bear three things in mind. First, while Obama won a major victory in the Electoral College, he did not come anywhere near a landslide in the popular vote. About 48 percent of the voters selected someone else. In spite of the Democrats’ strength in Congress and the inevitable bump in popularity Obama received after he was elected, his personal political strength was not overwhelming. Over the past year, poll numbers indicating support for his presidency have deteriorated to the low 40 percent range, numbers from which it is difficult, but not impossible, to govern.
Second, he entered the presidency off balance. His early focus in the campaign was to argue that the war in Iraq was the wrong war to fight but that the war in Afghanistan was the right one. This positioned him as a powerful critic of George W. Bush without positioning him as an anti-war candidate. Politically shrewd, he came into office with an improving Iraq situation, a deteriorating Afghanistan situation and a commitment to fighting the latter war. But Obama did not expect the global financial crisis. When it hit full blast in September 2008, he had no campaign strategy to deal with it and was saved by the fact that John McCain was as much at a loss as he was. The Obama presidency has therefore been that of a moderately popular president struggling between campaign promises and strategic realities as well as a massive economic crisis to which he crafted solutions that were a mixture of the New Deal and what the Bush administration had already done. It was a tough time to be president. Read more ..
A Failing Financial Recovery
|Brian Grow ||September 13th 2010|
Center for Public Integrity
A crackdown on reckless mortgage lenders by the Federal Housing Administration has failed to root out several executives with criminal records whose firms continue to do business with the agency in violation of federal law, according to government documents, court records and interviews.
The get-tough campaign has also been hamstrung because, even when the FHA can ban mortgage companies for wrongdoing or an excessive default rate, the agency does not have the legal power to stop their executives from landing jobs at other lenders, or open new firms. Read more ..
Chavez on the Edge
|Carl Patchen||September 6th 2010|
Council on Hemispheric Affairs
Since Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez came to power in 1999, Caracas has maintained a testy relationship with the United States, a nation which Chávez views as the primary threat to his dream of reproducing the Bolivarian Revolution. Although the U.S. and Venezuela experienced a very brief honeymoon once President Barack Obama assumed office, the two countries’ relationship has quickly begun to sour.
Responding in kind, Chávez has vamped up his anti-imperialist rhetoric in recent months, repeatedly taking stabs at the U.S. government for meddling in Latin American affairs. In addition to chiding the Obama administration for its claims that the Venezuelan government may be supporting terrorist organizations and for the U.S. increased military presence in Latin America, Chávez has slammed Obama’s nominee for Ambassador to Venezuela. Larry Palmer, an experienced if somewhat back-slapping, Foreign Service officer who served as Ambassador to Honduras from 2002-2005, drew heavy criticism from Chávez and other Venezuelan officials because of a series of scathing remarks he had made regarding the Caracas regime during a fast-pace hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on July 27. Read more ..
The Edge of Peace
|David Makovsky||August 30th 2010|
The Washington Institute
On Friday, August 20, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the resumption of direct peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians, to be launched in Washington next week. On September 1, President Obama will welcome Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas, as well as Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s King Abdullah. Direct talks between Netanyahu and Abbas are scheduled to begin the next day, with the objective of reaching agreement on the permanent-status issues of borders, security, Jerusalem, and refugees within a year. The meeting will mark the first time that Israeli and Palestinian leaders have discussed these issues directly during the Obama administration.
Road to the Announcement
A number of turning points led to Clinton’s announcement. The first was President Obama’s July 6 meeting with Netanyahu at the White House. In sharp contrast to past encounters, which were often strained, Obama called the meeting “excellent” and went out of his way to vouch for Netanyahu’s sincerity: “We had an extensive discussion about the prospects for Middle East peace. I believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu wants peace. I think he’s willing to take risks for peace.” Read more ..
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