Edge of Islamic Extremism
|Matthew Levitt||March 30th 2009|
Earlier this month, the United Kingdom announced that it is reopening dialogue with the political wing of Hezbollah. Unlike the United States, the United Kingdom has only banned Hezbollah's terrorist (External Security Organization) and military wings.
The ban on the terrorist wing came in 2000, while the ban on the military wing only came in June 2008 in response to Hezbollah's "providing active support to militants in Iraq who are responsible for attacks both on coalition forces and on Iraqi civilians, including providing training in the use of deadly roadside bombs," for plots to kidnap British security workers in Iraq, and for its support for terrorist activity in the Palestinian Territories.
Meanwhile, the European Union has not yet designated any part of Hezbollah -- military, political or otherwise -- although it did label Imad Mughniyeh, the late Hezbollah chief of external operations, and several other Hezbollah members involved in specific acts of terrorism. Read more ..
Edge on Environment
|Mike Westfall||March 23rd 2009|
Near Flint, Michigan, which was once a hub of failing industrial giant General Motors, are perhaps the remains of decades of toxic waste left behind as a legacy to generations to come.
Auto plants are not the healthiest of places to work.
Factory work poses various health risks. Over the years, auto workers have had to deal with the health hazards associated with paint and welding fumes, the production and plating of die cast parts, foundry work, woodworking, asbestos insulation on deteriorating overhead pipes, cutting fluids and many other potentially serious health dangers where identifiable toxic chemicals were present and suspect. Many times, grave health issues that might come from workplace exposure have not surfaced until workers were older and retired. Read more ..
America's Economic Collapse
|James Quinn||March 9th 2009|
Cutting Edge Financial Crisis
Over the last 30 years Americans have learned to love soft living and fallen for the lie of prosperity at any price. In the last 10 years a significant number of delusional citizens have tested the get rich quick theory of life, twice. First, the internet bubble lured millions to believe that Pets.com was going to change the world and day trading was a road to riches. Once this bubble collapsed and wiped out millions of investors, we moved onto the next bubble.
Millions of Americans bought into the “fact” that home prices only go up. The National Association of Realtors dealt the propaganda that now was the best time to buy. Alan Greenspan provided the fuel with 1 percent interest rates and recommending ARMs for everyone.
Banks and mortgage brokers provided the mortgage products that would allow someone with annual income of $25,000 to “buy” a $400,000 home. The get rich quick portion of our population (10 percent to 20 percent) began to buy multiple houses and flipping them before the ink was dry on the closing papers. Home prices doubled in many places in the space of a few years. This lured a vast amount of the population to borrow against the ever increasing value of their homes. Everyone knew that home prices never fall. Read more ..
|Yoram Ettinger||March 9th 2009|
Cutting Edge Contributor
The mild reaction by Arab countries to the Hamas-driven Palestinian predicament in Gaza refutes the assumption that the Palestinian issue is a top Arab priority and that it constitutes the core cause of Arab hostility toward the West, USA and Israel. In fact, the Arab reaction has reflected overall Arab attitude toward the Palestinian issue since 1948, through the 1982 Israel-PLO war in Lebanon and the First and Second Intifada, irrespective of the identity of the Palestinian leadership: Haj Amin al-Husseini, Shukeiri, Hammuda, Arafat, Abu Mazen or Haniyeh.
Arab countries have always showered Palestinians with rhetoric, but they have refrained from significant support. During the 2009 Gaza War, Arab countries rejected the call for an emergency session of Arab leaders on behalf of Gaza. They have limited their meek support to a gathering of Arab foreign ministers, calling for a UN emergency session. Saudi Arabia dismissed the suggestion to employ oil as a weapon. Riyadh prohibits pro-Palestinian rallies and its religious establishment issued a weak proclamation on behalf of the Palestinian struggle. The Gulf Cooperation Council focused on economic and monetary issues during its December 30, 2008 meeting, according lips service to Gaza.
A similar reaction occurred during the 1982 Israel-PLO war in Lebanon, which erupted on June 4. The Arab oil producing countries convened in August to discuss the price of oil, dismissing the proposal to use the oil weapon on behalf of the PLO. The summit of Arab leaders was deliberately delayed until September, following the expulsion of the PLO from Beirut. Read more ..
|Craig Karpel||March 3rd 2009|
|Iranian nuclear equipment|
Iran’s satellite launch in February 2009 should have been a wake-up call. Instead, the West has reached over and hit the snooze button. Americans and Europeans are under the impression that the program’s main goal is the destruction of Israel. Iranian nuclear designs go much further.
The Iranian regime could possess a nuclear weapon by the end of next year. It has demonstrated that its Safir 2 rocket, which was used as the launch vehicle, is able to deliver a warhead to southern Europe and beyond.
The New York Times recently reported: “The Iranian rocket had two stages, Mr. [Charles] Vick said. If it were carrying a small warhead, he said, the Iranian missile could fire the weapon about 2,500 kilometers, or slightly more than 1,550 miles. The rocket could send a weapon to targets in Israel, but experts said that Iran had already possessed that capability. That falls short of the range of an intercontinental ballistic missile, Mr. Vick said. For Iran to achieve that technical step, he added, it would have to develop a more powerful basic rocket or more upper stages — two goals that weapons experts think it is pursuing.” The newspaper article added, “Dr. [Charles] Ferguson of the Council on Foreign Relations said that Iran’s technical advance, if translated into a military missile, might put a warhead within range of southern Europe, including Turkey, Greece, and Italy. Read more ..
America and Israel
|Yoram Ettinger||February 23rd 2009|
Cutting Edge Contributor
In October 1998, on the eve of the Wye Plantation Summit, Democratic leaders of the House of Representatives told Secretary of State, Madelyn Albright: "Should President Clinton decide to pressure Israel, he would face a Democratic-Republican opposition." In September 1982, Prime Minister Begin rejected the Reagan Plan – which called for an Israeli withdrawal from Judea and Samaria – by throwing the official envelope at the lap of the US Ambassador, declaring: "Israel is not a Banana Republic." In spite of – and probably due to – the blunt rejection, the Reagan-era enhanced U.S.-Israel strategic relations in an unprecedented manner.
The assumption that an Israeli Prime Minister cannot face U.S. presidential pressure is as unfounded as the assumption that a US-Israel disagreement over the Arab-Israeli conflict should necessarily undermine vital Israeli interests. Read more ..
|Walter Lohman||February 16th 2009|
In recent months, one of America's two treaty allies in Southeast Asia turned the page on a period of intense political instability. And it did so democratically. Americans should take a moment to acknowledge Thailand as a member in good standing of the democratic club that is America's system of alliances in East Asia and the Pacific.
Reminders of an Undemocratic, Unstable Past
The most recent chapter of Thai political history began a little more than two years ago. On September 19, 2006, the military staged a coup to unseat and essentially exile Thailand's elected prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. Despite 14 years of uninterrupted democratic governance, global perceptions of a Thailand beset with chronic political instability quickly returned.
The unelected military-backed government exacerbated negative perceptions by mangling the Thai economy. And where the new government was widely expected to outperform the previous administration--dealing with the southern Islamist insurgency--it failed. Read more ..
America’s Economic Collapse
|Rea S. Hederman, Jr.||February 9th 2009|
The recently released January jobs report by the Department of Labor report reveals that last month employment opportunities declined by 598,000 and the unemployment rate increased to 7.6 percent. These numbers represent the highest amount of jobs lost since December 1974 and the highest unemployment rate since the 1992 recession's peak of 7.8 percent. The outlook for improvement is grim. President Barack Obama's stimulus package does not appear to offer any relief.
The January report shows that job losses continue to be widespread and deep. While the health care industry (+54,000) and government (+6,000) added jobs, every other sector continued to shed jobs, with manufacturing (-207,000) and construction (-111,000) being hit the hardest. Read more ..
America’s Economic Collapse
|Joel Magalnick||February 2nd 2009|
Cutting Edge Contributor
The next American commercial sector collapse is well underway, and indeed has been forestalling economic disaster for years. It is a bedrock of American democracy, enshrined in constitutional protection, and vital to an informed nation. Newspapers are next.
Start at the top. The New York Times is in trouble. When on January 20 Mexican multi-millionaire Carlos Slim Helu rode into Manhattan with a $250 million loan to The New York Times (that is, in addition to the 6.9 percent stake he lassoed in last year), the storied newspaper’s financiers breathed a sigh of relief—for the time being. But the Times’s building is still being mortgaged. "The Gray Lady" was likely to default on approximately $400 million in debt in May of this year, this woe added to $1 billion in other debt. That looming default could have forced what many consider one of America’s most prestigious newspapers to shut its doors, Michael Hirschorn recently wrote in the Atlantic.
A year ago the closure of an institution such as The New York Times would have been considered unthinkable. But the precarious structure of the massive Times’ debt has now exposed the inner workings of not only that publication, but also many others. Many readers were probably unaware of such dynamics in their daily newspaper. Now such facts are being openly discussed. Read more ..
|Eduardo Szklarz||January 26th 2009|
Cutting Edge Latin American Desk
President Barack Obama came to his administration announcing that the world has changed, but President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina has not apparently noticed. The day that President Obama was inaugurated in Washington D.C., Kirchner was making an official visit to Cuba where she met with President Raúl Castro and his brother Fidel Castro – dictator ex officio. The meeting of the leader of the Cuban Revolution was heralded by the Argentine government as a great achievement, even though for the rest of the world it was an irrelevant event that served to isolate Argentina even more on the world scene.
Cristina Kirchner went on to Venezuela, where she was received with great pomp and circumstance by President Hugo Chávez. The two national leaders re-established there a strategic relationship that had been strained by financial dealings on the part of Chavez in mid-2008.
Confidence in Argentina’s financial policies was buffeted when in August 2008, Argentine issued more than $1 billion to the Venezuelan government at the usurious rate of 15 percent. The Chávez administration immediately resold the bonds to Venezuelan banks and investors who then dumped the paper on the international market at discounted rates.
But all that is now in the past. So as to dispel any lingering misgivings in the bilateral relationship, Chávez gave a guarantee to Kirchner that his country would soon compensate the Italo-Argentine industrial group, Techint, for assets that his government nationalized earlier in 2008 that belonged to Argentine multi-national Techint. Read more ..
The Surge Against Hamas
|Aluf Benn||January 19th 2009|
Trying to hide a smile and a sense of self-satisfaction Prime Minister Ehud Olmert faced the cameras at the Defense Ministry and declared to the Israeli public, "We won." The Israel Defense Forces objectives for its operation in the Gaza Strip were "obtained in full." Hamas was "surprised and badly beaten," the government "made decisions responsibly and wisely," the IDF's performance was excellent and the southern home front "displayed resilience."
Olmert would have loved to have been able to say the same thing back in 2006, at the end of the Second Lebanon War. But then he had to confront a disappointed and outraged public calling for an inquiry into the government's handling of the war. The Gaza operation was undoubtedly intended to redeem Olmert, and will be used as a springboard for a comeback - if he avoids conviction on any of the charges pending against him.
Israel's military achievement in the fighting was aided by prior preparation and the creation of national and international legitimacy for the operation. The success was further assisted by the weakness of Hamas, in comparison to Hezbollah in the Second Lebanon War, and the IDF's willingness to sustain losses that in the end were less than expected. Read more ..
Sunset for the Oil Age
|Ariel Cohen and Owen Graham||January 5th 2009|
Conflicts and geopolitics will militate against increasing oil production in the coming years.
The 2007 National Petroleum Council report, "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," recognizes the danger and states that in order to attract the trillions of dollars necessary for the expansion of the energy infrastructure, a "stable and attractive investment climate" will be necessary. Clearly, this is a serious problem when considering the conditions in Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Sudan, Burma, and Nigeria. As the competition for oil increases, political risks in key production areas are likely to rise over the next 15 to 20 years. Read more ..
Edge on Terror
|Walid Phares||December 29th 2008|
Cutting Edge Terrorism Analyst
An intelligence assessment by the Internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-2013, obtained by the Associated Press, projected several dramatic developments. Among these projections was that terrorism directed against the U.S. will continue to be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa. The report asserted that WMD attacks could be carried out against America, but that these threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for al-Qaida and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots. The report reasserts a number of predictions made before and noted that increasing numbers of individuals will pose as refugees or asylum seekers.
While the report doesn't add much to previously projected assessments over the past few years, it deserves a thorough evaluation by the counterterrorism community as well as the experts studying the strategies and tactics of Jihadists.
This latest report contradicts the conclusion of numerous other reports regarding the likelihood of a WMD attack. For example, while many national security reports have pointed out the inevitability of a non-conventional attack, other reports (and sometimes the same assessment) found the terrorists’ ability to obtain these weapons as less likely. A global review of the "War on Terror" should be conducted as soon as possible on a national scale, involving the U.S. Congress, former and forthcoming U.S. officials, and private sector analysts. Read more ..
The Global Economic Crisis
|Daniella Markheim||December 22nd 2008|
In October 2008, the International Working Group of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IWG) released a set of generally accepted principles and practices (GAPP) for the conduct, governance, and accountability of sovereign wealth funds (SWF).
First conceived in the 1950s by foreign governments as a means to invest surplus foreign exchange earnings in the U.S. and markets abroad, SWFs have been the subject of intense media and government scrutiny after a flurry of investment deals in 2006 and 2007 caught the public's eye. Because many SWFs lack transparency, critics have been concerned that these government-owned investment vehicles could be used to advance political, as well as economic, agendas.
Some observers fear that rather than using SWFs as a means to hold a diversified asset portfolio and earn a solid return on investment, countries might use these funds to destabilize financial markets, protect industries and companies, or even expropriate technology. With little public information available on most sovereign investors' financial objectives, countries—including the U.S.—began to question the value of SWF benefits and whether action should be taken against what may instead represent a threat to their economic and national security. Read more ..
Edge on Economic Crisis
|John Paul Rossi||December 15th 2008|
|Depression-era WPA photo|
The United States is in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The question is: How close are we to another Great Depression?
The answer is: Very close.
The Great Depression was the result of the combination of the1929 financial crisis and serious structural problems in the American economy such as widespread poverty. After the 1929 stock market collapse these factors joined to deeply cut business investment and personal consumption. The consequence was a downward depressionary spiral that created the worst economic collapse in American history.
Today’s economy is hurtling downward on a similar path to depression. The mortgage and financial crises have constricted credit and largely cut off business investment. Stagnant wages and over-borrowing have curtailed consumer spending.
The collapse of a stock market bubble in 1929 triggered a chain of events that led to depression. In the late 1920s, investors and financial institutions poured money into stock. Banks, assisted by the Federal Reserve’s low interest rates, lent money on easy terms to investors. Rapidly rising stock prices created a get-rich euphoria that attracted more dollars. Both investors and financiers assumed that stock prices would continue to rise and continued to over-borrow and over-spend on stocks. Read more ..
|Jason Roffenbender||December 8th 2008|
Too many Americans do not fully understand how the health insurance they receive through their employer is financed. Health insurance is, of course, a "fringe" benefit. Formal premium payments to health insurance companies are made by employers, just as employers pay for other fringe benefits, such as paid vacation, child care, education and training, or retirement plans.
Technically, however, the employer is not "giving" the employee anything: The employees pay for these benefits through a reduction in their wages or an employer's reduction of full-time staff. The number of part-time jobs is increased to accommodate workload without offering any additional fringe benefits. As professors Katherine Baicker and Amitabh Chandra of Harvard University note:
Employees ultimately pay for the health insurance they get through their employer, no matter who writes the check to the insurance company. The view that we can get employers to shoulder the cost of providing health insurance stems from the misconception that employers pay for benefits out of a reservoir of profits. Regardless of a firm's profits, valued benefits are paid for primarily out of workers' wages. Workers may not even be aware of how much their total health premium is; however, employers make hiring and salary decisions based on the total cost of employment, including both wages and benefits such as health insurance, maternity leave, disability insurance, and retirement benefits. They provide health insurance not out of a generosity of spirit, but as a way to attract workers—just like wages. When the cost of benefits rises, wages fall (or rise more slowly than they would have otherwise), leaving workers to bear the cost of their benefits in the form of lower wages. Read more ..
America's Economic Collapse
|Jim Quinn||December 1st 2008|
Cutting Edge Economic Crisis Analyst
The United States government has been in non-stop bailout mode for the last three months. How has it done? How has the nation’s economy been impacted if at all? Here’s a report card.
Troubled Asset Relief Program
The Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP has distributed $179 billion to the largest financial institutions in the United States. The first $125 billion was forced on the nine largest financial institutions by Henry Paulson on October 28. Since that forced feeding, 21 other financial institutions have applied for and received an additional $54 billion from the $700 billion trough. Now every shaky company in America is trying to figure out how to get a piece of the action. American Express and GMAC are converting to “banks” so they can get bailed out by taxpayers for loaning money to people who couldn’t repay them.
By any reasonable assessment, the Troubled Asset Relief Program has been a miserable failure and a complete waste of taxpayer money. The basis used to ram the bill through Congress was the purchase of the toxic assets off of bank’s books. Not one dollar has been used for this purpose. The main purpose for passing the $700 billion bailout was to restore confidence in the markets.
On October 3 when the TARP was signed into law, the S&P 500 was at 1,114. Today, it is 887. The 20 percent decline in the markets in six weeks doesn’t show much confidence in Paulson’s acts. Paulson changing course every few days has shown the world that he is “winging it.” He has floundered from buying toxic assets to jamming capital down the throats of banks to his current plan to support consumer debt. Did Paulson lie to Congress about buying toxic assets? Read more ..
|Mitchell Bard and Stephanie Persin||November 24th 2008|
Cutting Edge Contributor
On November 11, 2008, Nir Barkat was elected mayor of Jerusalem. Not participating in the mayoral election, once again, was Jerusalem's Arab population. As permanent residents of the city, Jerusalem's Arabs are entitled to vote in municipal elections, although the overwhelming majority of the Arab population boycott these elections.
Since 1967, various Palestinian Authority associations (now run both by Fatah and Hamas) have demanded that the Jerusalem Arabs refrain from voting in these elections. According to these groups, any voting in Israeli government elections on the part of the Arabs will signify their approval of the Israeli "occupation" of what they claim is Palestinian territory. East Jerusalem, of course, is one of these highly contested areas. Read more ..
America’s Economic Collapse
|James Quinn||November 17th 2008|
Cutting Edge Financial Crisis Analyst
General Electric, the legendary American institution, founded in 1878 by Thomas Edison, is in deep trouble. Its PR machine has been in constant spin mode as the company sinks deeper into fiscal despair. GE is one of the few major companies in the U.S. that still retains an AAA rating. Considering Moody’s and S&P’s track record rating companies and financial instruments, not a few observers feel that an AAA rating is not worth the paper it is written on.
One look at GE’s balance sheet will convince an inquirer that the firm indeed does not deserve an AAA rating. AAA companies do not need to take the desperate actions that GE has taken in the last few months. Something is seriously wrong at GE.
The stock reached $53 at its peak in 2000 and has virtually crashed to below $17 this past week, the lowest level since the mid-1990s. CEO Jeffrey Immelt, who took over from icon Jack Welch in 2001, has made his mark by managing the company to a 68 percent decline in its stock price. No one at CNBC seems willing to take a hard look at GE’s financial statements or ask the CEO tough questions, because Mr. Immelt signs their paychecks. While shareholders have taken a bath, Mr. Immelt, a Harvard MBA, raked in $72.2 million of compensation between 2002 and 2007. A company that is known for its "pay for performance" mantra evidently does not hold its CEO to the same standards. Read more ..
Edge on the Election
|Gil Troy||November 10th 2008|
When this campaign began so many months and $4.3 billion ago, many pollsters and pundits predicted that Election Day would be the final round of the battle of the New York titans, pitting Hillary Rodham Clinton against Rudy Giuliani. Back then, when we thought about waking up at 3 AM, we usually associated it with an unwelcome run to the john, not the test – as described in Hillary Clinton’s campaign commercial – of who was ready to lead the nation.
If we imagined a ceiling with 17 million cracks in it, we assumed it would shatter, especially if the ceiling was glass; when we worried about meltdowns, it was because our kids were overprogrammed or undersupervised, not because our financial markets were overstretched and under-scrutinized; and when we talked about Joe the plumber we grumbled about the guy who charged too much and came too slowly not some idealized version of the people’s wisdom incarnate.
In those days when we thought about the largest state in the union, we wondered what its connection was with baked Alaska, we did not think about the half-baked ideas of the governor from Alaska and the conventional wisdom in Washington described Joe Biden as a blow-dried, blowhard politician, (who barely won 11,000 votes when he ran in the 2008 primaries) rather than the ultimate democratic ideal, a working class kid from Scranton conjured into Beltway foreign policy guru. The most famous Barak in the world was Ehud, the Israeli Defense minister, and –dare I say it -- the most famous Hussein was either Saddam or the late King of Jordan. Moreover, most Americans agreed that the most decent, nonpartisan, moderate member of the United States senate was… John McCain. Read more ..
America's Economic Collapse
|Jonathan Weil||November 3rd 2008|
Often when people have near-death experiences, they resolve to change their ways. That's not the case with the folks running Wachovia Corp., which experienced the financial equivalent.
In their starry-eyed world, Wachovia's net assets still were worth $50 billion as of Sept. 30, according to the balance sheet the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank released last week. Never mind that on Oct. 2 Wachovia's board approved Wells Fargo & Co.'s offer to buy the company for $14.8 billion in stock, saving it from the clutches of Citigroup Inc. and the undertakers at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Taken literally, the timeline suggests two scenarios. Either Wells Fargo is getting about $35 billion of stuff for free. Or the value of Wachovia's equity plunged $35 billion during the first two days of October. Neither of those happened, of course.
The reality is that Wachovia's management, including Chief Executive Officer Robert Steel, still won't admit the company's balance sheet is a farce and has been for a long time. More worrisome though is that nobody with any authority is calling them on it, even today. That includes Wachovia's auditor, KPMG LLP, as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission, and banking regulators such as the Federal Reserve and FDIC. Read more ..
|Alonzo Hamby||October 27th 2008|
Past is prologue, or so we often say.
But the consensus among the intelligentsia seems to be that this aphorism does not apply to Barack Obama—at least not when names like William Ayers and Jeremiah Wright come up. Should it?
Let’s be clear that many esteemed politicians at one point or another in their careers have unlovely associations. Harry S. Truman was a loyal henchman of Kansas City’s Pendergast machine in its heyday and never renounced it. Boss Tom’s creative voting manipulations (which ACORN would envy) launched Truman into the U.S. Senate. (Of course, in those days the other side was also creative.) Franklin D. Roosevelt made peace with New York City’s Tammany Hall. As Governor of New York, needing its support for his 1932 presidential run, he desperately tried to avoid prosecution of its multiple corrupt practices.
Roosevelt and Truman almost surely would not have established relationships with Ayers and Wright. Does that say something about Obama, or about ourselves in the present day?
Rev. Wright is a bitter and polemical black nationalist, who demonstrated in his National Press Club appearance that his “God damn America” line had not been taken out of context. I doubt that Barack Obama bought into his worldview. I suspect that an aspiring young politician looking for a church to affiliate with saw Wright’s large and influential black Chicago congregation as ideal place for networking. Read more ..
Edge on Terrorism
|Walid Phares||October 20th 2008|
Cutting Edge Terrorism Analyst
|French Islamic Protestors|
France's war with the jihadis is more intense than most Americans or even most Europeans would imagine.
With French troops engaging the Taliban in Afghanistan often coming under attack, jihadist cells have started targeting France as well as French presence in the Sahel, the north African Sahara. Now active jihadist cells are indeed deploying inside France just as they are inside many other Western European countries.
In a recent interview with Parisian daily Le Figaro, French Interior Minister Michèle Alliot-Marie, provided significant revelations about France’s vulnerabilities and response. Added to information provided by other French defense and counterterrorism officials and legislators, the picture undeniably affirms that France now joins Britain and other western European countries as pivotal points in the scheme of international jihad. Read more ..
America's Economic Collapse
|Alison Acosta Fraser and Todd F. Graziano||October 13th 2008|
Cutting Edge Contributors
|Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson|
During the early negotiations, a number of particularly bad policy options were added to the original Treasury proposal -- the final agreement appears to drop all of them
Administration and congressional negotiators reached agreement early September 28 on a package of actions to address the alarming financial situation facing the U.S. economy. Although several drafts of legislative language have been circulating, it is not yet possible to provide an overall assessment until the agreement’s final language is examined carefully.
The devil is always in the details, and so it is wise to look at the details. But several concerns and questions arose with earlier versions of a proposed package during week of September 21-27. So far, it appears that the negotiated agreement addresses these concerns in the following ways:
The agreement creates a new Office of Financial Stability within Treasury that is empowered both to purchase troubled assets from financial institutions and other bodies and to use other methods to address the current financial situation. This office would be immediately empowered to purchase up to $250 billion worth of troubled assets at any one time. If necessary, the Secretary of the Treasury could increase that amount by an additional $100 billion after notifying Congress that this additional sum is necessary. Read more ..
|Ron Kampeas||October 6th 2008|
JTA Washington Bureau Chief
|Barack Obama at AIPAC|
Barack Obama has hit a wall of Jewish indecision that could be decisive as both candidates look toward the pivotal Florida vote. The American Jewish Committee survey, published Thursday, shows the Democratic presidential nominee still hovering around 60 percent among Jewish voters. His big problem: the undecideds.
The U.S. senator from Illinois scored 57 percent, compared to 30 percent of respondents who said they would vote for his Republican rival, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). That’s consistent with two other major polls taken since May.
If Obama’s figure holds, he would finish about 15 points behind the 75 percent of the Jewish vote that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won in 2004, according to exit polls.
"He seems to have reached a plateau," said David Singer, the AJC's research director. He noted that Jews among the party faithful are strongly supportive of their respective candidates, with 81 percent of Jewish Democrats backing Obama and 84 percent of Jewish Republicans backing McCain. Read more ..
The Rocky Mideast Roadmap
|Mitchell Bard||September 29th 2008|
Cutting Edge Analyst
Ehud Olmert's decision to resign as prime minister will naturally cause a delay in negotiations with the Palestinians as Israel's democratic process works toward the creation of a new government. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni won the Kadima Party primary and has now been asked to form a government. Livni has been the lead negotiator for nearly a year and has developed a very good working relationship with her Palestinian interlocutors. If Livni forms a government, she can be expected to quickly return to the talks with the Palestinians. If she is unable to do so, elections will be called and the campaign will indeed preoccupy Israeli leaders.
This is the nature of democracy. American leaders are also distracted by the presidential campaign, but everyone knows once it is over, the new administration will turn its attention to the Middle East. After Israeli elections, the new prime minister will also return to the bargaining table. Read more ..
|Armstrong Williams||September 22nd 2008|
Cutting Edge Columnist
Senator Barack Obama’s triumph over Senator Clinton in the Democratic primaries will undoubtedly go down as one of the most shocking upsets in American electoral history. Obama, a dark horse (no pun intended) with no national track record, was able to beat the formidable Clinton machine because he was a phantom. He confounded his rivals because he provided little of substance for them to stick their swords into. Because he lacked a track record, he could switch directions easily without seeming incongruous. He was flexible, and could not be locked in or nailed down on anything.
Along comes Governor Palin, who, like Obama, is also an unknown. Like Obama, she has a razor thin track record on any issues of substance; and her appearance on the national stage came almost out of nowhere. Thus far, her very presence has sucked the air out of Obama’s sails. He finds himself at a loss for words, veering sharply off script into ad hominem attacks that are so very uncharacteristic of him. Yet he finds that Governor Palin is proving somewhat difficult to impale.
Meanwhile, Governor Palin has contented herself with making her points, and then stepping back with a confident smug. Thus far, she has stayed firmly on message. Borrowing a chapter from Obama’s play book, she has resisted the urge to respond to her detractors, refute the rumors, or even humor her critics in any way. Instead she has merely basked in the glow of her ascension, and allowed her charisma and charm to speak for itself. Read more ..
Edge on Iran
|Joseph Grieboski||September 15th 2008|
Cutting Edge Foreign News Editor
An Israeli special operations hero, Rafi Eitan, currently Minister of Pensioner Affairs but nonethelsss a member of Israeli’s inner cabinet of ministers with security responsibilities, suggested to German magazine Der Spiegel that Israel could capture Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over threats he has made against Israel.
Eitan is no stranger to such operations. In a daring 1960 mission, Eitan and his team went to Argentina to kidnap Adolf Eichmann—the lynchpin of the “Final Solution”—and take him to Israel where he was tried and found guilty of atrocious crimes against the Jewish people during WWII. Eitan said he was expressing his personal opinion in raising the abduction option.
BBC reports Eitan as arguing that the Iranian leader had threatened genocide and should therefore be brought for trial to The Hague, the seat of the international war crimes tribunal.
"And all options are open in terms of how he should be brought," he was quoted as saying on Tuesday by the Associated Press news agency. When asked if kidnapping was acceptable, Eitan replied: "Yes. Any way to bring him for trial in The Hague is a possibility." Eitan refused to backtrack on his statements, saying they were not the result of a slip of the tongue. Read more ..
China's Global Quest for Energy
|Cindy Hurst||September 8th 2008|
Cutting Edge Energy Desk
|Hugo Chavez meets with Hu Jintao|
The U.S. rocky relationship with Venezuela is playing into China’s hands, perhaps better than Beijing expected.
Venezuela exports approximately 60 percent of its oil to the U.S. However, since Hugo Chavez came into power in Venezuela in 1999, the U.S. and Venezuela have maintained a tense relationship, paving a path of continuous energy deals with China. Both China and Venezuela have been striking "International cooperation deals" that would not only not only provide increased oil exports to China, but also bolster Venezuela’s economy and oil infrastructure. In 2004, Chavez, who has visited China at least five times since 1999, signed such eight agreements on energy cooperation with the Asian country. According to China Daily, Venezuela currently ships nearly 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil and fuel to China. 80,000 of this is crude oil, which is up from 39,000 bpd the year before.
In addition to various business arrangements between Venezuela’s state-run oil company and China Petroleum that include purchasing Venezuelan fuel oil and power plant fuel, Chinese companies are seeking to invest in oil exploration and production in the country. In return Chavez expects and is receiving Chinese assistance in the areas of telecommunications, food production and culture.
The list of joint project is long, including not only oil sales from existing supply, but also the exploration and development of new fields and the development of older fields. In fact, Chavez visited China in December 2004, where he declared that Venezuela was ready to help China establish its own strategic petroleum reserve. He also spoke “of a budding strategic alliance between the two countries, and signed an agreement that would allow Chinese companies to gain developmental rights to 15 oil fields in eastern Venezuela. Although this would appear to be an excellent opportunity for China, there are still a number of hurdles to overcome before the full export potential can be realized. Read more ..
|John Edward Philips||September 1st 2008|
Cutting Edge Contributor
The world cannot understand how Robert Mugabe has support left in Zimbabwe. After violence and intimidation against his opponents he was able to steal a victory, but at great cost. Nonetheless, the fact remains that Mugabe garnered over 40 percent of the vote in the first round of the elections, when voting was relatively fair.
Certainly Mugabe still has much support and respect left from when he was leader of the Chimurenga, the guerrilla struggle against the white minority regime that had taken half the land in the country and reserved it for the whites. But many former leaders of revolutionary struggles either fell from power or saw their time was up and resigned. So why does Mugabe still have enough support to hold on?
One answer is the struggle over the land. Land has been central to Zimbabwean politics for centuries. Cecil Rhodes invaded not only for gold but also for land. Earlier the Shona and Ndebele had been fighting over the land. In the late 20th century, Ian Smith's settler government declared independence from Britain and fought for years to keep the land. Guerrillas from Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Joshua Nkomo's Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU) fought over the land. That struggle is still being waged. Read more ..
|Benedict Rogers||August 25th 2008|
Cutting Edge News Asia Desk
|Islamic Protest in Pakistan|
“Utter confusion and madness” was how one Pakistani source recently described the situation in his country to me. The country has been plunged into further turmoil.
President Musharraf has finally resigned ahead of plans to impeach him. Suicide bombers struck a military installation in one of the deadliest attacks in the country’s history. And the existence of the new, moderate, secular Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)-led coalition government remains fragile. Meanwhile, the Talibanisation of Pakistan continues apace. Benazir Bhutto may have been right when she warned in her book Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy and the West, published after her murder: "Pakistan today is the most dangerous place in the world. Pakistan faces the threat of both Talibanisation and Balkanisation, which are gaining in strength." Read more ..
Inside the Middle East
|Jonathan Spyer||August 11th 2008|
Cutting Edge Contributor
|Syrian President Bashar Assad|
A fourth round of indirect talks between Syrian and Israeli representatives was recently concluded in Istanbul. As the Turkish mediators kept themselves in shape conveying messages between the hotel rooms of the two countries' delegations, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was keen to stress the urgency of the hour.
The time was approaching, the prime minister said, when gestures would no longer be enough. Rather, it would soon be time for the Syrians to make their choice between the "Iranian grip" and their partnership in the "axis of evil," and rejoining the "family of nations" in pursuit of peace and "economic development."
Actions and statements from Syria and its allies, however, convey a distinctly less pressing sense of the negotiations. More indirect contacts have been tentatively scheduled for later this month, but for the Syrians, the already considerable benefits derived from the very act of talking are more important than the talks themselves. Damascus's allies in Iran have also given no sign of real concern that their most important Arab allies are about to jump ship. Read more ..
|Micah Halpern||August 4th 2008|
Cutting Edge Columnist
There are murders, mass arrests and a leading newspaper has been shut down. Tensions that had been simmering below the surface are now out in the open and they are boiling over. Hamas and Fatah are not only out for blood, they are out for power and control.
Gaza and tension go together like America and apple pie. They are inseparable. Even when the tension was not obviously manifest, even when it was not visible to the naked, untrained, non-Palestinian eye, it was palpable, it could be felt by the locals. An outsider's first peek at the rising tensions came when five Hamas military members were killed in a parking lot explosion in Gaza - and Hamas immediately pointed the finger of blame at Fatah.
And where Gaza goes, the West Bank is sure to follow. Here too, tensions, violence, acts of intimidation and menacing threats are emerging and hitting the streets and byways. Hamas began by arresting members of Fatah in Gaza. Fatah followed by arresting Hamas members in the West Bank. Now it is a game of Tit for Tat, Palestinian style. And for the players in the West Bank and Gaza Tit for Tat is a war game.
The game has just been taken up a notch. Murders, arrests, finger pointing, newspaper closings - those are the old components of the game. A new component has just been unleashed, it is the Palestinian propaganda machine. When it comes to Palestinian propaganda, Fatah is at a distinct disadvantage, Hamas is master.
It was one year ago that Hamas ousted Fatah from Gaza. Seven months earlier Hamas defeated Fatah in a parliamentary election. Hamas is using that imagery to convince the Palestinians of their superiority and right to rule. Hamas is using that imagery to instill fear in the hearts of Fatah and all other Palestinians. It is the imagery of victory and defeat. Read more ..
Kicking Our Oil Addiction
Cutting Edge Energy and Security Desk
Ten years ago, Osama bin Laden set a target price for oil at $144 a barrel. At the time, crude oil prices stood at $12 a barrel and his figure, aimed to compensate the Muslims for what he called “the biggest theft in the history of the world,” sounded delusional.
Four years ago, just prior to the U.S. elections, when oil prices stood at $38, bin Laden explained his economic warfare strategy: “We bled Russia for ten years until it went bankrupt and forced to withdraw in defeat. We are continuing the same policy to make America bleed profusely to the point of bankruptcy.” Reputable energy analysis outfits held a completely opposite view on the future of oil. A 2005 report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) held that by 2010 global oil supply would rise by as much as 16 million barrels per day (mbd). “We expect supply to outstrip demand growth in the next few years, which would take the pressure off prices around 2007-2008,” wrote the report’s authors. As we know, this never happened. Read more ..
Edge on Argentina
|Eduardo Szklarz||July 21st 2008|
Cutting Edge South America Desk
Argentinian president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner endured a dramatic defeat last week after her own vice-president cast the deciding vote in the Senate to reject a steep tax increase on soy exports that had triggered months of noisy anti-government protests by farmers.
Vice-president Julio Cobos's emotional vote against the government move to ratify the tax increase broke a deadlocked Senate vote after nearly 18 grueling hours of debate.
"This is the most difficult day of my life," Mr. Cobos told a hushed Senate chamber. "But I can't support [this Bill]. The president will understand." Mr. Cobos is a member of a group from the opposition Radical Civic Union party that backs the ruling Peronist party. Ms Fernandez brought him in as her running mate last year in a bid to demonstrate broad political support for her candidacy.
The Soybean Debacle is the gravest setback to President Kirchner and her husband, former President Néstor Kirchner, since 2003 when Mr. Kirchner came to power. The unexpected decision of the Senate to reject grain export tax increases carved an indelible line in their conflict with the farmers and dampered the couple’s so-called aspirations of political hegemony.
More than 300,000 people attended rival rallies for and against the export taxes in the capital on Tuesday. Hundreds of farmers who followed the debate on big-screen televisions set up in a Buenos Aires park erupted in cheers after Mr. Cobos announced his vote. Prior to the dramatic vote, Congress had been viewed as a rubber stamp for the Kirchners. While opponents roared their approval, hundreds of government supporters who had gathered outside Congress fell into subdued and silent rejection. Read more ..
Inside the Mideast
|Howard Kohr||July 14th 2008|
Cutting Edge Contributor
|Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)|
In this time of heightened anxiety and uncertainty in the Middle East, Congress has taken a crucial step toward ensuring the safety and security of our nation's closest ally in the region. Earlier this month, the House and Senate overwhelmingly approved, and President Bush signed into law, funding that increases Israel's total security aid for fiscal year 2009 to $2.55 billion.
The funding-$170 million in additional security assistance to Israel-is in line with America's new 10-year, $30 billion aid agreement with the Jewish state and was included as part of the Supplemental Appropriations Acts of Fiscal Years 2008 and 2009.
Aid to Israel is not normally included in the supplemental. But with Congress expected to enact a Continuing Resolution at the end of this fiscal year-which will keep all federal programs, including aid to Israel, at fiscal year 2008 levels-bipartisan Congressional leaders acted to lock in the critical aid increase to Israel as soon as possible.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) were at the forefront of this effort. One month ago at AIPAC's Policy Conference, Pelosi announced her intention to ensure that Israel received the full increase in aid called for under the new 10-year plan by including the additional funds in the supplemental. Read more ..
Edge on Asia
|J. Peter Pham||July 7th 2008|
On July 1, 2008 the United States handed over the presidency of the UN Security Council to Vietnam. Exactly one week earlier, on June 24, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung paid an official visit to the White House. This has become somewhat of an annual ritual since 2005, when Phan Van Khai became the first Vietnamese head of government to be welcomed there since the Vietnam War. Although the timing of the two events was coincidental, they show that Washington and Hanoi are growing closer—and that Vietnam is becoming a major global player. Now, it seems, would be a good time to forge stronger ties with our former adversary.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal Asia in late May 2008, Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) made the case for engaging Vietnam:
“The next American president will inherit a set of alliances and friendships in Asia that are already in good shape... Our core alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia have never been stronger; relations with old friends in Southeast Asia like Singapore are excellent; and promising partnerships have been forged in recent years with friends like India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The next president must expand on these achievements with an ambitious, focused agenda to further strengthen and deepen these relationships. Putting our alliances first, and bringing our friends into greater partnership in the management of both regional and global affairs, is key to meeting the collective challenges we face in a changing Asia and a changing world.” Read more ..
The Oil Weapon
Cutting Edge Contributor
About 10 years ago, al-Qaeda's leader, Usama bin Laden, stated that his target price for oil was $144 a barrel, and that the American people, who allegedly robbed the Muslim people of their oil, owe every Muslim $30,000 in back payments.
At the time, $144 a barrel seemed farfetched. As of this writing, bin Laden was a mere $8 per barrel short of his target. Indeed, the economic warfare component of the global campaign against the West has undeniably been a resounding success for the jihadist movement. This has deep implications for the West and its ability to prevail in the long war of the 21st century.
The U.S., deeply embroiled in a struggle against radical Islam, nuclear proliferation, and totalitarianism, now faces difficult realities. Relations with the Muslim world are at an all-time low, but more than 70 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and over a third of the production are concentrated in Muslim countries. The theocratic and dictatorial regimes that most strongly resist America's efforts to bring democracy to the Middle East are the dominant forces in the world oil economy. While the U.S. economy bleeds, oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran—both sponsors of radical Islam—have enjoyed staggering windfalls. In 2006, the United States spent about $260 billion on foreign crude oil and refined petroleum products. This year, the figure could surpass $500 billion, the equivalent of our defense budget. As bin Laden had hoped, Muslim oil producers are taxing every American man, woman, and child. Read more ..
|Joseph Grieboski||June 23rd 2008|
Cutting Edge Foreign Editor
|Photo Credit: AFP|
The future of the European Union was thrown into crisis in recent days after voters in Ireland rejected plans to transfer more power to Brussels. The Czech Republic followed the Irish rejection by declaring that it too was having problems ratifying the new treaty designed to streamline decision-making among EU nations. Some diplomats pronounced the treaty “dead.”
Irish voters sunk the Lisbon Treaty in a referendum by 53.4 percent to 46.6 percent – with 862,415 people opposed and 752,451 in favor – vetoing a deal that required approval by all 27 EU countries. The rejection transforms the upcoming EU summit in Brussels into a crisis-management exercise, overshadowing efforts to tackle soaring food and energy costs.
While political leaders across Europe were shaking their heads in frustration at the Irish voters' veto, many of their citizens were not. Ordinary Spaniards, Dutch, French and Britons, who wish they could get the same chance, indicated that they would also say "no" to the cold, distant heart of Europe. The emotional disconnect between European Union leaders and their nearly 495 million constituents has never been more evident than with the results of the votes in Ireland, long considered one of the most pro-European populations. Read more ..
The Oil Weapon
Cutting Edge Energy and Security Desk
|Yanbo Petroleum Complex in Saudi Arabia|
As nations become increasingly dependent on oil, it becomes strategically imperative for them to secure their access to the Middle East. This means building strong alliances with the region’s suppliers, providing them with diplomatic support and military aid, and often turning a blind eye to their human rights transgressions.
Since the famous 1945 meeting between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King Abdul Aziz ibn Saud aboard the USS Quincy in Egypt's Great Bitter Lake, it was the U.S. that served as the guarantor of security and stability in the Persian Gulf. In fact, the use of military power to ensure free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf has been a tenet of U.S. national security strategy. According to the Carter Doctrine, put forth by President Jimmy Carter in 1980, any effort by a hostile power to block the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to the U.S. will be viewed as an attack on America’s vital interests and will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force. Since the policy’s inception, the U.S. has exercised the Carter Doctrine several times.
When Iranian forces attacked Kuwaiti tankers during the Iran-Iraq War, President Ronald Reagan authorized “reflagging” and provided them with U.S. Navy protection. Then, following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, President George H.W. Bush authorized military action aimed to defend Saudi Arabia’s oil fields and restore Kuwait’s sovereignty. In the decade between the Gulf War and the 2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom, the U.S. strengthened its military presence in the region, building bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. At a cost of $50 billion to $60 billion per year the U.S. patrolled the waters of the Gulf, imposed a no-fly zone in Iraq, and provided training and equipment to the region's militaries. Read more ..
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