The Iranian Threat
|Simon Henderson & Olli Heinonen||November 1st 2013|
The Washington Institute
Today, two days of talks begin in Vienna between experts from the P5+1 (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) and their Iranian counterparts, who will discuss technical issues relating to Tehran's nuclear program and international sanctions. The meeting will help lay the groundwork for the next round of diplomatic negotiations, scheduled to take place in Geneva on November 7-8.
Expectations of progress were reinforced earlier this week by comments made after separate talks between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency. In a rare joint statement, both sides called the talks "very productive" -- a departure from their eleven previous meetings in recent years, which failed to make progress in resolving what the IAEA has called the "possible military dimensions" of Iran's nuclear program. The statement also indicated that a document discussed in past meetings has been set aside and a new approach has been taken. Read more ..
Fatah on Edge
|Khaled Abu Toameh||November 1st 2013|
The Gatestone institute
After a prolonged lull, the ongoing war between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and ousted Fatah operative Mohamed Dahlan erupted once again over the past few days. The two men are now accusing each other of treason, corruption and conspiracy, prompting some Palestinians to wonder whether the time has come for U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to make an effort to hold "peace talks" between Abbas and Dahlan.
The Abbas-Dahlan rivalry reflects growing tensions in the ruling Fatah faction, which dominates the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. But the war is not only between two figures. Rather, it is between two camps in Fatah representing the old guard and new guard. There were days when Abbas and Dahlan were considered close allies and friends. When Abbas served as prime minister under Yasser Arafat, in 2003, he appointed Dahlan as Minister of Security. Read more ..
|George Friedman||October 31st 2013|
Recently, I discussed how the Founding Fathers might view the American debt crisis and the government shutdown. This week, we consider how the founders might view foreign policy. It was argued that on domestic policy they had clear principles, but unlike their ideology, those principles were never mechanistic or inflexible. For them, principles dictated that a gentleman pays his debts and does not casually increase his debts, the constitutional provision that debt is sometimes necessary notwithstanding. They feared excessive debt and abhorred nonpayment, but their principles were never completely rigid.
Whenever there is a discussion of the guidelines laid down by the founders for American foreign policy, Thomas Jeffersonâ€™s admonition to avoid foreign entanglements and alliances is seen as the founding principle. That seems reasonable to me inasmuch as George Washington expressed a similar sentiment. So while there were some who favored France over Britain during the French Revolutionary Wars, the main thrust of American foreign policy was neutrality. The question is: How does this principle guide the United States now? Read more ..
|Phillip Swagel||October 30th 2013|
Five years later, it is clear that the decisive actions to stabilize the financial system were those of Oct. 14, 2008, when the United States government put taxpayer money into banks and guaranteed their lending. With American markets closed for the Columbus Day holiday, the chief executives of nine large banks trooped past waiting television cameras into the Treasury to be told â€” or in a few cases, persuaded â€” that they would receive $125 billion in taxpayer money from the $700 billion TARP fund and that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation would use emergency authority to guarantee bank debt and business checking accounts, neither of which were covered by the F.D.I.C.â€™s usual deposit insurance. The nine firms together accounted for about half of the assets and deposits in the United States banking system; another $125 billion was to be allocated to the 8,000-plus institutions that made up the rest of the system. Read more ..
|Christina Hoff Summers||October 29th 2013|
Being a boy can be a serious liability in todayâ€™s classroom. As a group, boys are noisy, rowdy and hard to manage. Many are messy, disorganized and wonâ€™t sit still. Young male rambunctiousness, according to a recent study, leads teachers to underestimate their intellectual and academic abilities. â€œGirl behavior is the gold standard in schools,â€ says psychologist Michael Thompson. â€œBoys are treated like defective girls.â€
These â€œdefective girlsâ€ are not faring well academically. Compared with girls, boys earn lower grades, win fewer honors and are less likely to go to college. One education expert has quipped that, if current trends continue, the last male will graduate from college in 2068. In todayâ€™s knowledge-based economy, success in the classroom has never been more crucial to a young personâ€™s life prospects. Women are adapting; men are not. Read more ..
|Dave Levinthal||October 28th 2013|
Center for Public Integrity
Three of the nation's most prominent trade associations are striking back at a corporate disclosure study that concludes large companies are increasingly more transparent about their politicking.
In a letter dated Oct. 17, obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, the groups slams the CPA-Zicklin Index of Corporate Political Accountability and Disclosure as peddling false information aimed at quieting big business.
They argue that most large companies' shareholders have not supported proxy resolutions meant to enhance corporate political disclosure and that the CPA-Zicklin Index's methodology is flawed.
"Corporations do NOT support increased political and lobbying 'disclosure,'" reads the letter, which is signed by U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Tom Donohue, Business Roundtable President John Engler and National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Julian Pecquet||October 27th 2013|
Saudi Arabiaâ€™s ire at the United States risks complicating President Obamaâ€™s second-term agenda across the Middle East. Saudi officials over the past few days have decried U.S. policy in the region as â€œditheringâ€ and refused to take a United Nations Security Council seat in protest.
The backlash risks setting the two peculiar allies on a collision course on a range of issues that involve Egypt, Syria and Iran. The Saudisâ€™ change of strategy was precipitated by Obamaâ€™s decision last month to call off military strikes against Syria and instead throw in his lot behind a Russia-backed effort to have Syrian President Bashar Assad turn his chemical weapons over to the international community. The Saudis want Assad deposed, in large part because he is allied with their regional rival, Iran. In response to Obamaâ€™s move, Saudi Arabia took the highly unusual step of turning down a two-year stint on the U.N. Security Council, a decision the former director of Saudi intelligence said was â€œbased on the ineffectual experience of that body.â€ Read more ..
|John Hudak||October 26th 2013|
As Congress begins investigations into the Affordable Care Act rollout and the healthcare.gov flaws, Republicans are calling for resignations as far up as the Secretary of Health and Human Services. The logic goes: if managerial issues were behind failures to test the website component of the federal health care exchange, we need new management.
That concern is a valid one. In the private sector and often times in the public sector, when misakes happenâ€”particularly in an area critical to the executive's interestsâ€”heads roll.
Yet, Kathleen Sebelius will stay, and Republicans have no one to blame but themselves.
Why is this? In an ironic twist of fate the Republican Party's obsession with filibustering, delaying, or holding executive branch nominations will finally have negative consequences for the GOP instead of the president.
Over the past several years, Republicans in Congress had refused to confirm a director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau because they did not like the law that authorized the agency. They refused to confirm nominees to the National Labor Relations Board because of opposition to unions. They put a hold on the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission for fear he may require more transparency in campaign activity. The examples go on.
Why, then, would President Obama remove Secretary Sebelius and nominate a replacement? The HHS Secretary oversees the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. And GOP opposition to CFPB or NLRB or FCC pales in comparison to the visceral and existential contempt the party feels toward Obamacare. Given such opposition, the president would be foolish to make such a change in HHS leadership. Read more ..
The Iranian Threat
|Raz Zimmt||October 25th 2013|
On October 10, the Asr-e Iran website published extensive excerpts from an interview granted by Iranian President Hassan Rowhani a few years ago to the author of the book Young Politicians. The book, which included conversations with several Iranian politicians, was published in 2007 by Ettelaat, in a limited edition. The interview with Rowhani that appeared in the book took place in 2004 or 2005, when he served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and head of Iranâ€™s nuclear talks team.
In the interview, Rowhani provided biographical information about his childhood, private life, studies at school, religious seminary and university, and about his political activity before and after the Islamic revolution. In the interview, Rowhani also spoke at length about the nuclear talks that he was in charge of under the Khatami administration and defended the conciliatory policy adopted by Iran in 2003. He also expressed his well-known views in recent years on the nuclear talks. Read more ..
|Gary Burtless||October 24th 2013|
The U.S. unemployment rate dipped to 7.2 percent in September, the lowest rate since November 2008. The composition of the unemployed differed significantly in the two months, however. In November 2008 the median duration of an unemployment spell in progress was a bit less than 10 weeks. In September of this year it was 16.3 weeks. Just 21 percent of the unemployed in November 2008 had been out of work for 6 months or longer. This September about 37 percent of the unemployed had been jobless that long. The longer spells of unemployment combined with cutbacks in the duration of unemployment benefits over the past two years mean that many more of the unemployed face acute financial hardship.
One of the most striking differences between the two months is the sharp decline in labor force participation. In November 2008 the adult participation rate was 65.9 percent. By last month it had dropped to just 63.2 percent, a fall of 2.7 percent. The â€œmissingâ€ labor force participants number about 6.6 million adults. Not all of these missing participants would rejoin the labor force if the nation were to return to full employment by the end of the year. I estimate that an aging U.S. population has reduced the participation rate to about 64.5 percent, even assuming we had full employment. Of course, this still means the labor force is missing about 3.4 million adults who would have been employed or looking for work if the nation enjoyed full employment. Read more ..
The Pentagon on Edge
|R. Jeffery Smith||October 23rd 2013|
Cente for Public Integrity
The purchase of spare parts by the U.S. military is a big business, with more than $25 billion worth of screws and widgets kept in storerooms. It is also a notoriously sloppy one. Pentagon auditors have found that, due to poor bookkeeping, the military services regularly buy parts that they already have plenty of. Due to poor oversight, moreover, they frequently pay too much for them.
A partly-plastic roller wheel for an aircraft ramp worth a bit more than $7 is billed to the Pentagon at $1,678. â€œCommanderâ€ seats for Stryker armored vehicles are purchased long after they became obsolete. A 38-year supply of parts is stocked for an aircraft with a much shorter lifespan. â€œDo we have enormous warehouses sitting around with stuff that no one is going to use?â€ asked a senior defense official who briefed reporters over breakfast on these and other episodes earlier this year. â€œYes.â€
Now, in an act of generosity, the Pentagon has successfully exported its spare parts mismanagement to Afghanistan. It seems that a multinational, U.S.-led military office called the Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan spent $370 million from 2004 through the middle of this year on spare parts for vehicles operated by the Afghan National Army. But last year, it confirmed that it could not account for $230 million worth of the spare parts, according to an Oct. 16 report by the Special Inspector for Afghanistan Reconstruction. Read more ..
|Stan Veuger||October 21st 2013|
And there we are: Victory! The debt limit has been raised. After weeks and weeks of open conflict, intense infighting, and yes, some passive-aggressive sitting around as well, the president and Congress have managed to avert U.S. default and reopen the federal government. The PandaCam is back! Plus, a global financial crisis has been averted or at least postponed, and all should be pleased.
Or should they?
Republicans, of course, fought tooth and nail to gain concessions from the president in this combined standoff over government funding and the debt limit. The federal government went into slimdown, and GOP poll numbers took a sizable hit.
What have Republicans gotten out of this?
A clean continuing resolution, a clean debt-limit increase, and a budget conference committee. The first two of those three items were certainly not the object of heated desire burning in the hearts of Tea Party members everywhere. The third item, going to conference on the budget, had been readily available since May, and House Republicans steadfastly rejected it. Read more ..
Palestine on Edge
|Khaled Abu Toameh||October 20th 2013|
The Gatestone Institute
Over the past few months, a succession battle has been quietly raging in the Palestinian Authority [PA]. This behind-the-scenes battle is continuing even as the PA leadership conducts secret peace talks with Israel. In fact, the U.S.-sponsored peace negotiations have served as a catalyst for increased calls by senior PLO and Fatah officials to start planning for the day after Mahmoud Abbas's departure from the scene.
Like his predecessor Yasser Arafat, the 78-year-old Abbas has been running the PA in an autocratic fashion since his election as president in January 2005. And like Arafat, Abbas has since managed to keep many of his critics silent by providing them with funds, luxurious offices and vehicles, secretaries, bodyguards and assistants. Many senior members of the PLO and Fatah, for example, each receive from Abbas tens of thousands of dollars every month to enable them to cover the costs of office rentals and vehicles, as well as salaries for their secretaries and henchmen. Still, the funds have not been able to buy Abbas 100% quiet. Read more ..
Obama's Second Term
|Bill Buzenberg||October 20th 2013|
The Center for Public Integrity
â€œItâ€™s a slow-moving train wreck.â€ Not the government shutdown, nor the looming government default. Rather, the train wreck is the ongoing toll from sequestration. The across-the-board budget cuts continue to hobble scientific research, shrink Head Start and other anti-poverty programs, and squeeze communities from Alaska to Florida. According to the Financial Times, initial warnings of catastrophic effects around the country from sequestration failed to materialize. The cuts themselves average about 5% for most programs and many have found ways to get by. But the FT did find that the effects are gradually becoming more and more pronounced.
Many communities â€œare starting to really feel it,â€ says Steve Bell, senior director of the economic policy project of the Bipartisan Policy Center, and the source for the train-wreck quote. Read more ..
The Iranian Threat
|Michael Segall||October 19th 2013|
Unlike in earlier rounds, this time there have been direct negotiations between the United States and Iran. Today Iran comes to the negotiations with the West in incomparably better geostrategic circumstances than in 2003, when it temporarily suspended uranium enrichment to further advance its nuclear program, then in its infancy. Iran is not entering the nuclear negotiations out of weakness, but, rather, from a position of strength.
In Iran's view (which some of the Gulf States share), America's regional status and deterrence power are in continuing decline. Given Iran's sense of power linked with both domestic and regional stability, it comes to the negotiations in a mood of confidence verging on hubris. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Jonathan Spyer||October 18th 2013|
The first reports emerging from the effort to relieve the Assad regime of its chemical weapons capacity suggest that the regime is cooperating with the inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The latter organization has been tasked by the United Nations with overseeing the process of destroying Assadâ€™s CW capability.
The process is set to involve two distinct stages. In the first and more straightforward phase, Syriaâ€™s ability to produce chemical weapons will be removed. In the second phase, Syriaâ€™s actual stockpiles of chemical weaponry are to be destroyed. The first phase of the mission is intended to be completed by November 1. The second phase is likely to take a lot longer. Read more ..
Palestine on Edge
|Shoshana Bryen||October 17th 2013|
Jewish Policy Center
If the Palestinian movement believes it lives outside the laws of politics, nature and economics, it may be right.
The PA and Hamas occupy a split territory with two feuding governments -- both dictatorships with all the arbitrariness and lack of accountability implied by that; multiple armed services that fight each other and, occasionally, kill Israelis; a school system that teaches children that the IDF ate Mickey Mouse and Jews have no history in the land of the Bible; a civic culture that venerates suicide bombers and the mothers who seem to revel in their children's bloody demise; and an economy that produces nothing of export value. Yet it operates on the principle that it will be bailed out by European and American political support and international largesse. And that Israel will be blamed for the Palestinian failure to thrive. Read more ..
|George Friedman||October 16th 2013|
The U.S. government is paralyzed, and we now face the possibility that the United States will default on its debt. Congress is unable to resolve the issue, and President Obama is as obstinate as the legislators who oppose him. To some extent, our political system is functioning as intended -- the Founding Fathers meant for it to be cumbersome. But as they set out to form a more perfect union, they probably did not anticipate the extent to which we have been able to cripple ourselves.
Striving for ineffectiveness seems counterintuitive. But there was a method to the founders' madness, and we first need to consider their rationale before we apply it to the current dilemma afflicting Washington.
Fear and Moderation
The founders did not want an efficient government. They feared tyranny and created a regime that made governance difficult. Power was diffused among local, state and federal governments, each with their own rights and privileges. Even the legislative branch was divided into two houses. It was a government created to do little, and what little it could do was meant to be done slowly. Read more ..
The Defense Edge
|Maseh Zarif||October 15th 2013|
Obama administration officials have signaled their willingness to consider a deal that abandons key U.N. Security Council demands aimed at rolling back Iranâ€™s developing nuclear weapons capability.
Iranian officialsâ€™ statements suggest that any nuclear proposal they offer will be a meaningless half-measure intended to retain their core nuclear capabilities while relieving sanctions pressure.
The emerging framework for negotiations opens the door to a bad deal â€“ one that abandons the standard of verifiably suspending and dismantling Iranâ€™s nuclear weapons program.
Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, the lead U.S. diplomat in talks with Iran, recently provided insight into the administrationâ€™s thinking regarding negotiations over the nuclear issue: You know, a negotiation begins with everybody having their maximalist position. And we have ours, too, which is, they have to meet all of their obligations under the NPT [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons] and the U.N. Security Council resolutions. And they have their maximalist position. And then you begin a negotiation. Read more ..
Obama's Second Term
|Saul Jackman||October 14th 2013|
As the debt ceiling deadline of October 17 approaches, President Barack Obama and the United States Congress are playing a game of chicken with the worldâ€™s economy on the line. As both sides become increasingly entrenched in their positions, the risk of the United States defaulting on its debt, and of the economy spinning into a recession grows. Meanwhile, President Obama has the institutional authority to put an end to this game, thus unilaterally preventing an international economic crisis. The question remains whether he will do so, and what those actions would mean for the crisis.
It is the right of any president to declare a state of emergency and to take action necessary to protect the nation. America has a long-standing history of granting or tacitly accepting expanded presidential powers in times of crisis. As the sole figure elected by the entire nation, he is the politician to whom we turn when faced with a national emergency, and in so doing, we often allow him leeway to act in ways that protect the nation even if we would not imbue those powers upon him in calmer times. Read more ..
|John Hudak and Thomas E. Mann||October 13th 2013|
A grand bargain is absolutely necessary, but not to negotiate temporary terms to reopen the government or raise the debt ceiling. We need a grand bargain for democracy.
We need President Obama and Congress to agree to take off the table the partisan warâ€™s new weapons of mass destruction â€“ government shutdowns, threats of public default, and sequesters. Hostage-taking to gain unilateral concessions not achievable through ordinary bargaining and putting in place automatic, indiscriminate spending cuts in the absence of budget agreements diminish our democracy and imperil our economy. The world looks with bewilderment and fear at the ability and willingness of a minority to thwart majority rule to achieve their ideological objectives whatever the costs. Our problems of deficits and debt pale in significance compared with the damage being done to our democracy, our capacity to govern, and our standing in the world. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Jonathan D. Halevi||October 12th 2013|
The formation of the Army of Islam in Syria on September 29, 2013, signifies the ongoing trend of the Islamization of the struggle against Bashar Assad's Alawite regime. Forty-three combat organizations have joined together to establish the Army of Islam under the command of Sheikh Zahran Alush, and they were soon joined by seven additional organizations.
The immediate purpose of creating the Army of Islam (at first, the name "Army of Muhammad" was considered) was to unite the fighting forces under a single command to enable coordination of the military campaign and administration of manpower, weapons, and ammunition. Read more ..
The Way We Are
|Stan Veuger||October 11th 2013|
A craze is sweeping the nation, the idea that failing to raise the debt limit would not be an abomination. The most outspoken supporter of this view in Congress is Rep. Ted Yoho (R-YOLO), who told the Washington Post on Friday that â€œit would bring stability to the world markets.â€
A weaker version of this position is one more commonly held among conservatives: that the Treasury Department can just prioritize payments to bondholders, that those bondholders will be pleased and that Treasury bills will continue to roll over smoothly. And you know, the federal government is too big anyway, so not spending any money beyond whatâ€™s coming in from taxpayers and whatâ€™s being seized from holders of preferred stock in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is probably a great idea. Read more ..
Africa on Edge
|Amadou Sy||October 9th 2013|
What uses more electricity: Liberia or Cowboys Stadium on game day? This question was the theme of a Wall Street journal blog prompted by President Ellen Johnson Sirleafâ€™s declaration that Cowboys Stadium uses more electricity than the total installed capacity of her country, Liberia.
In that small West African country, only 1 percent of people living in cities have access to electricity. The lack of access to electricity hurts hospital patients who cannot be treated properly, children who cannot get access to refrigerated vaccines, students who cannot study at night, girls who have to hunt for firewood instead of going to school, women who cannot venture outside their homes after dusk, business people who pay more than half of their operating costs on power alone, and, as a result, consumers who pay higher prices to buy goods or services. Read more ..
Education on Edge
|Maysa Jalbout and Sarah Dryden-Peterson||October 8th 2013|
In war, dedicated teachers are on the front lines of the battle for hope and equality. Facing harrowing conditions, teachers are often unsupported in their responses to the pleas of children and parents for access to meaningful education. The international community must also support these teachers and their students' right to learn.
Attacks on schools are on the rise in places like Nigeria, Thailand and Syria, transforming schools from sanctuaries of learning to scenes of horror. â€œThe same places we used to go to teach or to learn, the armed men take us there to torture usâ€, said an academic from Damascus University. Yet many teachers persist. In the Central African Republic, teachers take refuge with their students in bush schools in the forest. Here, there are no books or blackboards. Rather, enthusiasm and the will to learn bring education to life. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, female teachers defy daily threats and violence from extremists by educating the girls about whom they care so much. Read more ..
|Yaakov Lappin||October 7th 2013|
With no military threat, Iran has no incentive to stop its nuclear progress. Iran might well conclude that the sanctions could disappear in the course of endless rounds of diplomacy. No one in Israel seeks war, but a central tenet of its own defense doctrine is that Israel cannot depend on any external power to deal with existential security threats.
The coming weeks probably represent the last opportunity for Iran and the international community to reach an enforceable deal that will dismantle Tehran's nuclear weapons program, before Israel concludes that time has run out, that Iran has gotten too close to creating its first atomic bombs, and that the time for a military strike has arrived.
Despite Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's well-planned and deceptive charm offensive at the United Nations last week, so far not a single uranium-enriching centrifuge has stopped spinning in the underground nuclear facilities in Natanz and Qom. The heavy water plutonium facility at Arak is moving forward, and Iran has already amassed enough low-enriched uranium for the production of seven to nine atomic bombs. Read more ..
The Drug Wars
|Liam Whittington||October 6th 2013|
The arrest of two young British women, Michaella McCollum Connolly and Melissa Reid, on suspicion of drug trafficking on 6 August 2013 grabbed the attention of European media outlets as the details of their encounter with anti-drugs officers at Limaâ€™s Jorge ChÃ¡vez International Airport began to filter out. The Peruvian authorities formally charged the foreign nationals with the promotion of drug trafficking after they were caught with 24 pounds of cocaine (worth an estimated $2.3 million) concealed in food packages in their luggage. On 25 September both women pleaded guilty to the charges in a closed hearing in Lima. The pair, who are currently being held in a classification unit in the Virgen de Fatima jail (also known as Ancon 2) while they await their sentencing hearing on 6 October, are expected to jailed for at least 6 years and eight months according to Peruvian authorities. Read more ..
|Molly Jackman||October 4th 2013|
According to the latest count, 20 Republicans would vote in favor of a clean continuing resolution (CR). With the 200 House Democrats, then, there are enough votes to put an end to the shutdown. But that requires that the clean CR receives a vote, and this requirement is easier said than done. Speaker Boehner has, once again, invoked the Hastert Rule, under which no bill comes to a vote without the support of the majority of the majority party. Hastert himself has said that his â€œruleâ€ never existed â€“ it is just an informal norm. And, in fact, there is a real rule that would allow the chamber majority to bring a continuing resolution to a vote: the discharge procedure. So what will win in the end â€“ the fake Hastert Rule, or the real discharge rule?
One problem with the discharge rule is that it is really cumbersome and a bit arcane. The discharge process has been batted around in media circles over the past week, so itâ€™s key to walk through the procedure. Read more ..
Argentina on Edge
|Thomas Abbot||October 3rd 2013|
As Argentina prepares for its midterm elections on October 27, President Cristina FernÃ¡ndez de Kirchnerâ€™s ruling partyâ€”the Frente Para la Victoria (Front for Victory, FPV)â€”is scrambling to avoid what many anticipate to be a historic defeat. Half of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, with elections in every district, are being contested, along with 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate.
While the FPV is unlikely to lose its majority in the Congress, it seems likely to suffer some serious electoral losses. The August 11 first round of voting, what is termed the â€œprimaryâ€ round in Argentina, was the FPVâ€™s worst performance in 10 years. Many are seeing the upcoming general election on October 27 as a referendum on the current administration. Moreover, a potential defeat for Kirchner and the FPV, who flaunt their Peronist credentials at every turn, would bring a heavy blow to the legitimacy of Peronism, perhaps the most enduring political ideology in Argentina.
Read more ..
Iran on Edge
|Mehrangiz Kar||October 2nd 2013|
The Rouhani administration has been formed without a single female face appearing in the cabinet. That said, a woman has been chosen as the spokesperson of the foreign ministry, one has been named vice president and director of environmental protection, and one has been appointed as vice president for legal affairs.
What is the new president capable of doing for women? During the years of Mohammad Khatami's presidency, the Iranian public came to the conclusion that in the Islamic Republic system, the president is not all powerful, and other, higher powers will not allow him to put his proposed policies into action. But during the time of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration, legal experts - and regular citizens - were shocked and dismayed when they saw that the president can indeed exert great power and although his critics in the Majlis tried to challenge him, he remained defiant. In fact, his exertion of power - with the support of the radical conservative establishment - was such that he was able to go beyond the legal limits of the presidency, overreaching his constitutional power without facing serious consequences for his actions and serving out two full terms, despite complaints. Read more ..
The Iranian Threat
|George Friedman||October 1st 2013|
U.S. President Barack Obama called Iranian President Hassan Rouhani last week in the first such conversation in the 34 years since the establishment of the Islamic Republic. The phone call followed tweets and public statements on both sides indicating a willingness to talk. Though far from an accommodation between the two countries, there are reasons to take this opening seriously -- not only because it is occurring at such a high level, but also because there is now a geopolitical logic to these moves. Many things could go wrong, and given that this is the Middle East, the odds of failure are high. But Iran is weak and the United States is avoiding conflict, and there are worse bases for a deal. Read more ..
Egypt's Second Revolution
|Eric Trager||September 28th 2013|
In the 16 months after Hosni Mubarak's dramatic February 2011 ouster, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood quickly rose from the cave to the castle, winning the parliamentary and presidential elections, and then appointing its members to executive positions across the Egyptian government. But 15 months and an uprising-cum-coup later, even the Brotherhood's former caves are off-limits to it. On Monday, a Cairo court ruled the Brotherhood illegal and authorized the military-backed government to seize its assets and properties.
To some extent, the court's decision reinforces the decapitation strategy that the military has pursued against the Brotherhood since it toppled Mohamed Morsi on July 3, which has hampered the organization's capabilities significantly. But whereas decapitation left open the possibility that rank-and-file Muslim Brothers might select new -- and perhaps less aggressive -- leaders over time, Monday's court ruling will have much longer term consequences, unless it is overturned on appeal. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Charles Recknagel||September 27th 2013|
A deal that looks acceptable to all five world powers on the UN Security Council regarding Syriaâ€™s chemical weapons has finally emerged after weeks of negotiations and could be voted on as soon as September 27.
But implementing the resolution demanding Syria give up all of its chemical weapons for destruction could prove still more complicated than agreeing upon it. Here are five things to consider.
How enforceable is the deal
The draft resolution now before the Security Council reportedly sets several clear tasks which will be accompanied by deadlines. Damascus must declare what chemical weapons it has, in what quantities, and where they are located. Next, equipment for producing chemical weapons must be destroyed. Then, all of Syria's chemical weapons material must be completely eliminated, likely by the first half of 2014. Read more ..
The War on Terror
|George Friedman||September 26th 2013|
Central Asia has numerous important links to Afghanistan that will open the region to significant effects after the upcoming U.S. and NATO drawdown. First and foremost, Central Asia is linked to Afghanistan geographically; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share borders with Afghanistan that collectively span more than 2,000 kilometers (about 1,240 miles). The Afghan border with Tajikistan, along the eastern edge of Afghanistan, makes up more than half of that distance, at 1,344 kilometers. The borders with Turkmenistan (744 kilometers) and Uzbekistan (137 kilometers) run along Afghanistan's western edge. Most of the Tajik-Afghan border is mountainous and therefore poorly demarcated, and the topography of Afghanistan's frontiers with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is largely desert. Read more ..
The Clinton-Obama Edge
|Elaine Kamarck||September 25th 2013|
How appropriate. We are starting a blog called â€œFixGovâ€ on the eve of a possible government shutdown. Nothing could be more broken than a government that canâ€™t even manage to keep its doors open. And yet that seems to be where weâ€™re headed. Obviously, someone thinks theyâ€™ll win this game of chicken. But who?
Conventional wisdom contends that the last time the government shutdown, the winter of 1995 â€“ 1996, President Clinton won and Speaker Newt Gingrich (and Congressional Republicans), lost. I was in the Clinton White House at the time, and I agree with this conventional wisdom. Once the showdown was over, Clinton sailed to re-election and Gingrichâ€™s Speakership was essentially over. But the question for today is less whether Clinton won but why? And what does this history tell us about likely winners this time around? There are a few ways to answer this. Read more ..
The Battle for Syria
|Andre de Nesnera||September 24th 2013|
Under pressure from the United States and Russia, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has provided details of his chemical weapons arsenals to the international organization charged with monitoring them. A spokesman for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons says it received â€œeverything that we have been expecting.â€ But he did not disclose any figures.
Syria is believed to have one of the worldâ€™s largest chemical weapons arsenals including mustard gas, the more modern sarin and even VX - the most toxic of all. Joseph Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation, said Syria has produced chemical weapons for decades.
â€œIt was Assadâ€™s father who started building this arsenal. It was done with the assistance of several other countries, including Russia and we believe North Korea,â€ said Cirincione. â€œAnd the arsenal was aided by Western companies selling the regime components that it would need, particularly the precursor chemicals which have civilian applications but which are used to make some of this deadly nerve gas.â€ Read more ..
|Thomas P. Miller||September 23rd 2013|
It has been another rough year for Obamacare. Implementing the main components of President Obama's signature health-care law in time for a January 2014 rollout date remains a struggle. A majority of state governments continue to resist the Affordable Care Act's expansion of Medicaid, and only about a third of them have agreed to set up state-administered insurance exchanges. In early July, Treasury officials announced that they would have to delay enforcement of the law's employer mandate until 2015. The feasibility of other provisions, like the individual mandate to purchase government-approved coverage, remains in doubt. Even if the technological infrastructure required for the new insurance-coverage and subsidy platforms doesn't crash during this fall's first season of open enrollment, there are other obstacles to overcome. Many potential applicants will face the sticker shock of higher premiums, while others may take advantage of the "honor system" process for determining eligibility for income-based subsidies as enrollment opens for state exchanges. Read more ..
The Edge of Terrorism
|Jim Kouri||September 22nd 2013|
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As if coordinating their activity in Iraq and Kenya on Saturday, suspected Islamic terrorists killed at least 64 and wounded 140 people in Baghdad using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) loaded into automobiles, according to counterterrorism expert and former anti-terrorism task force detective, Geoffrey Wignart.
According to Wignart, two car bombs exploded as a funeral procession passed in Sadr City, located in eastern Baghdad. The double-blast left 56 people dead and another 128 others wounded. In addition, eight people died and 15 were left wounded when a car bomb exploded in a popular marketplace in Baghdad's eastside, the police source said.
While no group has claimed responsibility for the multiple attacks, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQII), in most cases, are responsible for such suicide bombings in that country. Recently, the al-Qaeda branch in Iraq changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), since many al-Qaeda members are now participating in the Syrian civil war.
The Battle for Syria
|Barbara Slavin||September 20th 2013|
More than two years after President Barack Obama said it was time for Syriaâ€™s president to go, Bashar al-Assad is still in power in Damascus. But new evidence from the United Nations pointing to his regimeâ€™s large-scale use of chemical weapons makes it more plausible that Assad could leave office as part of an international peace plan.
In the aftermath of last weekendâ€™s Russian-American deal to remove and destroy Assadâ€™s large chemical weapons arsenal, members of the Syrian opposition and their supporters have complained bitterly that the agreement insures that Assad stays in power to insure implementation of the plan through the middle of 2014. However, the new international opprobrium attached to the Syrian leader because of the gassing of hundreds of civilians outside Damascus Aug. 21 is undercutting his support among even his most ardent allies, especially Iran, itself the victim of Iraqi poison gas attacks during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. Read more ..
The Sunset of the Oil Age
|Mary Campbell||September 20th 2013|
The relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Latin America is likely to weaken considering the effort newly inaugurated President Hassan Rouhani is exerting to initiate dialogue with other countries. Interestingly, the attempts by the new Iranian head of state to create ties with more diverse members of the international community may jeopardize some of Iranâ€™s current relationships, especially in Latin America.
In order to analyze the possibility of weakened relationships with Latin America, it is imperative to review the existing ties that Iran has with the region. Currently, Iranian-Latin American relations are primarily based on petroleum products, foodstuffs, and most of all, a few of these countriesâ€™ willingness to disobey international trade sanctions regimes. However, despite these governmentsâ€™ efforts, the Islamic Republicâ€™s economy continues to suffer and Rouhani is obligated to domestically turn his nationâ€™s economy around. Read more ..
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