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The 2012 Vote

Romney Remains in the Far Right Corner on Immigration

June 20th 2012

Mitt Romney

OK, Gov. Romney — regarding your refusal to endorse President Obama’s executive order on immigration relief for illegal high school graduates — I have a bunch of questions for you.

How do you explain that you are now farther to the right on immigration than the following conservative Republican leaders of your party: Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Arizona Sen. John McCain, former President George W. Bush, former Florida Gov. (and brother of that president) Jeb Bush and one of the leading prospects to be on your ticket, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio? Where does that place you on the political spectrum?
Certainly not in the mainstream of the general electorate; not even the mainstream of the major conservative leaders of the Republican Party listed above. Of course, you did this to yourself. During the GOP presidential debates, for example, you criticized Perry for legislation that he supported, along with most Republicans and Democrats in the Texas State Legislature, that allowed Texas students whose parents were illegal aliens to pay in-state tuition rates at Texas public universities. Read more ..


Broken Elections

Dictatorship of Dollars

June 20th 2012

Koch Think Tanks

President Obama and Democratic leaders, voters, workers and donors must understand with brutal clarity that: Republicans, right-wing billionaires whose extremism is alien to traditional American values, special interests with Gilded Age-magnitude greed and five Supreme Court justices who proved their contempt for 200 years of American jurisprudence in the Citizens United case are within reach of turning a corrupted system into a near-permanent dictatorship of dollars that could destroy the dream of July 4, 1776.

I have been so vigorous in advocating that President Obama run with Hillary Clinton as vice president, as part of a grand Obama-Clinton alliance, because this great transforming chessboard move would powerfully mobilize the people and money of progressives, and profoundly appeal to the good sense of moderates and independents.  Read more ..


The Obama Edge

The Federal Green Jobs Agenda

June 19th 2012

Green Jobs

Three fallacies underpin the green job agenda: The first fallacy is that there is a compelling reason for the government to re-order the private-sector economy to make things more “green,” more quickly; the second fallacy is that the government can intervene in the economy to create new jobs on net; and the third fallacy is that bureaucrats make good venture capitalists.

I will take them in order.

In the United States, and in virtually every other developed country, we have seen the very same trends play out while people engaged in ordinary non-green jobs, using non-green technologies to pursue their development: at first they degrade their environment, but as they meet their basic needs, they clean up their environment.

Environmental improvement in the United States has been spectacular in virtually all parameters. Our air and water pollution levels are bare fractions of what they were; the burden of persistent chemicals in the environment is down; deforestation was reversed; wildlife is protected; and the US leads the world in reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases without, I might add, being part of either an international coalition or even having national greenhouse gas control legislation.

To be sure, some of these improvements were driven by regulations, particularly local regulations, but what made them possible was the underlying reality that free-market economies naturally seek to use less energy and resources per unit of production, and democratic market-economies follow a predictable cycle of environmental repair. Our existing regulatory regime and our efficient market-economy will see us into a green future: no government re-ordering of the energy economy is necessary. Read more ..


Europe on Edge

The Futility of Elections in Broken Europe

June 19th 2012

Europe and Korean Peninsula

Europe and the financial markets watched intently June 17 as Greece held general elections. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti all delayed their flights to the June 18 G-20 summit in Mexico to await the results.

The two leading contenders in the elections were the center-right New Democracy Party (ND), which pledged to uphold Greece's commitments to austerity and honor the country's financial agreements with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, and the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), a group of far-left politicians who pledged to reject Greece's existing agreements, end austerity and maintain the country's position in the eurozone. A third major party, the center-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), shares the ND's position of maintaining Greece's bailout agreement. PASOK had been Greece's ruling party until it formed a unity government with the ND late in 2011.

For a while it seemed these elections would be definitive. Either Greece would reject the country's agreement with its international lenders, potentially being forced out of the eurozone, or it wouldn't. If Greece rejected austerity and forcibly or voluntarily left the eurozone, the country might set a precedent for other troubled states and precipitate a financial crisis -- a eurozone exit and default would likely go hand in hand. Europe would be tested as never before, and it would find out how resilient it is to a wider financial crisis. Read more ..


Broken Government

Field of Schemes: The Costs of Shallow-Loss Farming Programs

June 18th 2012

wheat fields

Shallow-loss programs are costly: Depending on structure and crop prices, these programs could cost the taxpayer as much as or more than the direct payments program they would replace, averaging as much as $8 to $14 billion a year over the next five years.

Shallow-loss programs amount to a new entitlement: Payments would be automatically triggered by revenue shortfalls and would be linked to average revenues over the past five years. So, when prices and yields increase, payment triggers will also increase, creating a new, partially disguised entitlement program that locks farmers into near-record incomes at the taxpayer’s expense.

Shallow-loss programs based on farm-level yields create incentives for the wasteful use of economic resources by buying down deductibles associated with federal crop insurance: Farmers would reap the benefits of record crop yields and prices. However, because a high percentage of revenues are guaranteed, farmers may adopt more risky farming techniques. Read more ..


The Edge of Healthcare

Defeat of Healthcare Law Would Erode Voters’ Trust in Supreme Court

June 18th 2012

Face Transplant Surgery

Every political strategist working the fall elections sees a game changer coming by the end of the month. That’s when the Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of President Obama’s signature legislative accomplishment, the Affordable Care Act.

The Democrats have a nuclear option in this political game if the high court throws out the healthcare law as unconstitutional. That blowup-the-system button, not pushed since FDR’s attempt to stack the court with Democrats during the New Deal, is for Obama to use the bully pulpit of the White House, and the national stage of a presidential campaign, to launch a bitter attack on the current court as a corrupt tool of the Republican right wing. It is a move that could energize Democrats and independents even as Republicans celebrate a major legal victory.

Some Democrats, sensing a political windfall, can’t wait to start the offensive. Nebraska’s Sen. Ben Nelson, a retiring Democrat, sent out a news release last week condemning the “activist Supreme Court,” for potentially dismantling a healthcare law. The senator said without the new law, health insurance premiums will be “skyrocketing,” and endanger “healthcare for more than 100,000 Nebraska kids with pre-existing medical conditions such as asthma or diabetes.” Read more ..


Suriname on Edge

International Pressure on Suriname Needed to See Justice Done

June 18th 2012

Desi Bouterse of Suriname
President Desi Bouterse of Suriname

Last month the judge overseeing the trial to determine the full extent of Surinamese President Dési Bouterse’s involvement in the 1982 December Murders put the proceedings on hold. In light of the National Assembly’s retroactive Amnesty Act granting immunity to Bouterse and his political henchmen, whether the Public Prosecutor’s office can legally carry on the trial is now uncertain.

As Stabroek News of neighboring Guyana reported on June 6, the government has pressured the trial’s judges to bury the case by threatening their safety. The act, an affront to justice, is part of a long pattern of abuses by Bouterse and his colleagues. Regrettably, the suspension of the trial likely means that the Public Prosecutor’s office will be unable to obtain a guilty verdict against Bouterse. Meanwhile, relatives of the December Murder victims and the Surinamese nation await the justice that has been delayed for the past 30 years. Read more ..


The Arab Winter

Variations on the Theme of The Arab War Against Israel

June 17th 2012

6 day war

Amid the Arab upheaval of past 18 months, a question has crept among the speeches, demonstrations, riots, elections, battles and massacres – Is Israel better off, or worse off, for the revolution among its neighbors?

Certainly Wael Ghonim of Google, and the positive nature of the short-lived "Arab Spring" raised people's hopes. The West convinced itself that education and modern social media had created an Arab body politic ready for democratic governance. Very quickly, however, what we got was:

"Moderate" Islamists -- looking less moderate every day -- ruling Tunisia; A split in the Egyptian Parliament between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists (with "Google people" barely noticeable in the constellation); A horrific war in Syria where Saudi Arabia and Qatar are arming an increasingly Islamist-looking opposition (which is what you get when they are armed by a Wahabi regime); Sectarian fighting in an increasingly fragile Lebanon; Turkey looking increasingly stridently Islamist; Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations on a regular basis in Jordan; Read more ..


Europe on Edge

Austere Growth?

June 16th 2012

French Presiident Francois Hollande

The German government’s reaction to newly elected French President François Hollande’s call for more growth-oriented policies was to say that there should be no change in the eurozone’s austerity programs. Rather, growth-supporting measures, such as more lending by the European Investment Bank or issuance of jointly guaranteed project bonds to finance specific investments, could be “added” to these programs.

Many inside and outside of Germany declare that both austerity and more growth are needed, and that more emphasis on growth does not mean any decrease in austerity. The drama of the ongoing eurozone crisis has focused attention on Europe, but how the austerity-growth debate plays out there is more broadly relevant, including for the United States.

Three essential points need to be established. First, in a situation of widespread unemployment and excess capacity, short-run output is determined primarily by demand, not supply. In the eurozone’s member countries, only fiscal policy is possible at the national level, because the European Central Bank controls monetary policy. So, yes, more immediate growth does require slower reduction in fiscal deficits. Read more ..


Obama and Israel

J Street Undercuts Obama Policy on Iran

June 15th 2012

obama-dershowitz

President Obama recently invited me to the Oval Office for a discussion about Iran.  The President reiterated to me in private what he had previously said in public: namely, that he would not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons; that containment of a nuclear Iran was not an option; that sanctions and diplomatic pressures would be applied and increased first; but that, as a last recourse, the military option would not be taken off the table.

What the President said is now the official American policy with regard to the threat of a nuclear Iran.  It is clear that sanctions and diplomacy alone will not convince the Iranian mullahs to halt their progress toward their goal of an Iran with nuclear weapons.  The only realistic possibility of persuading the Iranians to give up their nuclear ambitions is for them to believe that there is a credible threat of an American military attack on their nuclear facilities.  Unless this threat is credible, the Iranians will persist.  And if the Iranians persist, and the Israelis do not believe that the American threat is credible, the Israelis will undertake a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.  It is crucial, therefore, for America’s military threat to be credible and to be perceived as credible by both the Israelis and the Iranians. Read more ..


The Arab Winter in Egypt

Massive Violence on the Horizon as Egyptian Army Takes Control

June 15th 2012

Egypt army protest

The Egyptian Supreme Constitutional Court has just invalidated the parliamentary election there. The parliament, 75 percent of whose members were Islamists, is being dissolved. The military junta has taken over total authority. The presidential election is still scheduled for a few dozen hours from now.

In short, everything is confused and everything is a mess. All calculations are thrown to the wind. What this appears to be is a new military coup. What is the underlying theme? The armed forces concluded that an Islamist takeover was so dangerous for Egypt and for its own interests that it is better to risk civil war, a bloodbath, and tremendous unpopularity than to remain passive and turn over power. I believe this decision was made very reluctantly and not out of some lust for power by the generals. They have decided that they had no choice. Read more ..


Inside Israel

Thank You Jewish Patriots! Shame on Ha’aretz, Uri Blau and Evelyn Hayes

June 13th 2012

Ronn Torossian

Reading a recent Haaretz article was stupefying - headlined: “The settler behind shadowy purchases of Palestinian land in the West Bank” one may think that Ha’aretz had discovered a mass scandal worthy of a “shadowy” headline. In reality, the sad truth the newspaper “exposed” was the Jews who work to purchase homes for Jews to live in – because Arabs won’t sell to Jews.  Sad that Ha’aretz proudly exposing patriots is a headline in the Jewish State – while anywhere else in the world not selling to someone because they are Jewish would be deemed racism.

Unfortunately, in the 21st Century Jews can’t use their real names to purchase homes because Arabs kill other Arabs if they dare sell to the Jewish infidel. Reporting the story - Uri Blau (who was recently charged by Israel’s Attorney General with unauthorized possession of stolen classified documents from the Israel Defense Forces) who proudly ran the first photo of a Jewish patriot who does the valiant work of ensuring Jews live in all areas of the holy State of Israel.  Exposing a man who works privately to defeat racism would win awards in many countries - in Ha’aretz it’s deemed “shadowy” and “mysterious”.  What’s glossed over is that every single activity they mention is completely 100% legal. Read more ..


The Massacres in Syria

Shaming Russia for Arming Assad Won’t Help End Syria’s Civil War

June 13th 2012

Syria burning

Secretary of State Clinton revealed Tuesday that Russia is sending helicopter gunships to Syria and called Moscow’s claims that its arms are not used against Syrian civilians “patently untrue.” Russia’s support for the Syrian regime is not new. Yet even as the Obama administration ups its pressure on Vladimir Putin to abandon Bashar al-Assad, it is still struggling to find a path that can end the violence in Syria and begin a political transition without demanding deeper American engagement. But as the helicopter headline indicates, violence is taking a tighter hold on the Syrian crisis. The time may quickly be drawing near when U.S. interests in regional stability will demand more than diplomacy.

The current situation is a diplomatic and military stalemate, albeit a bloody one. U.N. envoy Kofi Annan has had zero success in establishing a real cease-fire or moving Assad into negotiations with the opposition. The U.N. monitors sent into Syria have not even been able to visit sites of recent suspected massacres and are themselves now targets of attack. The armed rebellion has been unable so far to dislodge the regime, but neither has the regime’s violence crushed the rebellion. Russia is still blocking stronger action at the U.N. Security Council. But more direct action, such as working with those who are arming the Syrian opposition, creating safe-zones on the borders of Syria, or threatening military intervention by a U.S.-led coalition, are risky endeavors and not saleable to a war-weary U.S. public—or a war-weary U.S. president. Read more ..


The Massacres in Syria

Syria is the Spanish Civil War of our Time

June 12th 2012

syria-killing

Spain 1936. An army revolt against the democratically elected government sets off a civil war. On one side are the Fascists, led by General Francisco Franco. On the other side is a coalition of democrats both social democratic and liberal; communal nationalists; anarchists, Communists, and independent Marxists. The Western democracies declare an embargo: no arms to be sold to the Loyalist side. But Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy help the Rebels, while Stalin’s USSR helps the Communists, increasing their power within the Loyalist coalition. In the end, the Fascists win and rule Spain for decades.

Syria 2012. The people revolt against the dictatorship setting off a civil war. On one side is the anti-American repressive Syrian regime that has been a champion of revolutionary Islamism; its ally, Iran; and Hizballah. On the other side is a coalition of democrats, communal nationalists, and Islamists. The Western democracies declare an embargo: no arms to be sold to the rebels. But Shia Islamist Iran and Russia help the regime, while Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood help the Islamists, increasing their power within the rebel coalition. In the end, either the regime wins or the Islamist component among the rebels is more likely to win. Read more ..


Obama and Israel

Why Isn’t Obama Visiting Israel?

June 12th 2012

Click to select Image

By now it’s clear that President Barack Obama isn’t going to visit Israel in his term of office. And yet that’s pretty curious, isn’t it? After all, American politicians who seek Jewish support usually find a trip to Israel a pretty good way to claim pro-Israel credentials. And Obama has been desperate to do so, especially this year.

Why, then, isn’t Obama going to visit Israel? Of course, we cannot definitively answer that question, but here are some thoughts:

1. His personal distaste for Israel is so great that he doesn’t want to come here. Of course, he did do so once as a senator but now Obama may feel he can give freer rein to his feelings. While it is silly to say that Obama hates Israel and wants to destroy it, if you believe that he has a single warm feeling toward the Jewish state I have a bridge in Brooklyn you might want to buy. Certainly, Obama has an extreme personal dislike for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as he revealed to a microphone he didn’t know was on when meeting with French President Sarkozy. And while some of Obama’s best friends were Jewish, they were also anti-Israel or, at best, in the we-know-better-than-those-dumb-Israelis camp. Read more ..


Healthcare on Edge

Insurance Industry Myths About the Uninsured

June 12th 2012

stethoscope

In 2007, a few months before I left the health insurance industry, I was tasked to write a “white paper” designed to help convince media folks and politicians that the problem of the uninsured wasn’t much of a problem after all. If demographic data was sliced just so, I was expected to write, it was easy to conclude that many of the uninsured — some 46 million at the time — were that way by choice.

I was told to point out, for example, that a significant percentage of people without coverage were in families with annual incomes of $75,000 or more. The implication: That those folks were simply shirking their responsibilities. A crucial fact that I was not to disclose, of course, was that many Americans, including wealthy ones, couldn’t buy coverage at any price because of pre-existing conditions. These are the “untouchables” as far as insurance companies were concerned. (That’s my term, not the industry’s. The underwriters prefer the term “uninsurable.”) Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Election a Watershed for Nation

June 11th 2012

Out of Business

Most presidential elections are seen as watershed events that will have a significant and determinative effect on our nation’s future and culture, and to some extent on the world’s future.

This view is often an overstated projection reflecting the fact that people — especially politicians and pundits — view their point in time as uniquely important to history and the fate of the nation. It is the natural narcissism of those who run for office and the people who cover them. This year, however, they may be right.

The November election actually will mark a decisive point — a transitional event in the future of our country, the character of our political experience and the direction of world progress. There probably hasn’t been a presidential election since the contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in which the outcome — the current that will carry the nation forward — will have such a dramatically different impact or involve such a fundamental reshaping of how we are defined.  Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Obama Takes Lessons from 'Give 'Em Hell Harry!'

June 11th 2012

Barack Obama Israel speech

Congress has a long “To Do” list for the rest of the year, beginning with pumping up the economy. But the calendar of working days on the Republican majority leader’s website shows Congress is scheduled to be in session only 52 more days this year. That allows little time to address the debt ceiling again, extend the payroll tax cuts, prevent student loan interest rates from doubling and decide whether to extend the Bush tax cuts.

Speaker John Boehner reportedly told a meeting of the House GOP last week: “Let’s call bulls--t, bulls--t! This election is going to be all about the economy.” The Speaker is right, but the joke may be on him. President Obama is already blaming lack of action from Boehner’s Republican majority in the House of Representatives for the poor economy. And that campaign strategy is just getting started. The question is how much political power accusations of “Republican obstructionism” will have with voters in the final stretch of the campaign. What is certain is that as the House, Senate and presidential campaigns enter the summer months, every argument from now on will center on what the politically paralyzed Congress has failed to do on economic issues. Read more ..


The Massacres in Syria

Why a Syrian Civil War Would Be a Disaster For U.S. National Security

June 10th 2012

Syrian uprising

Speaking Thursday before the U.N. General Assembly, just one day after the latest massacre of civilians by government-affiliated forces, Kofi Annan warned that the crisis in Syria was on a disastrous course. “If things do not change, the future is likely to be one of brutal repression, massacres, sectarian violence and even all-out civil war,” he said. “All Syrians will lose.”

Annan, of course, is not the first to evoke the term “civil war” in reference to the crisis in Syria, which has already resulted in more than 10,000 dead and 50,000 missing. The term has become a favorite of opponents of intervention in Syria, who use it to conjure up the image of a human swamp of chaos, destruction and mayhem that is bloodier than what Syria has suffered over the past sixteen months, less tractable to resolution, and violently inhospitable to outsiders. The unspoken assumption is that while such a scenario may be horrible for Syrian civilians, it would not rise to the level of an international crisis -- at least not one that would have much impact on the United States. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Is Obama Turning the Economy Around?

June 9th 2012

PBObama contemplative

President Obama took to the national stage today and again repeated his claims that administration policies are producing a robust economic recovery. However, public opinion polls and recent election results underscore a very different perception: working Americans see an economy still deeply depressed in key sectors and much slower everywhere than it should be. In short, according to the perception at least, the president’s policies have not turned the economy around as fast they expect.

So who are you going to believe, the President or your lying eyes? Where are we today compared to the other, big recession of the post World War II period, the early 1980s? One way to answer that important question is to compare the two recessions calendar quarter by calendar quarter. At its worst point, or seven quarters after the start of the recession in 1981, the economy was just as weak as the worst days of the recent recession.

Today, we are 17 quarters from the beginning of the last recession that started in December 2007. At this point in the 1980s, the economy was well on its way to normal levels: output stormed back to near normal levels: GDP growth without inflation averaged 4.9 percent during the recovery period. The unemployment rate was in the low 6 percent range by the 17th quarter and would get to 5.6 percent by the end of that year, 1987. Read more ..


Counting Palestinians

Can the Palestinian People Become Refugees Forever?

June 9th 2012

UNRWA Relief

A couple of weeks ago the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee unanimously passed the Kirk Amendment as part of the State Department and Foreign Operations Appropriations Bill for 2013. The bill requires the State Department to specify to Congress, for the first time, what proportion of the five million Palestinians who are supported by UNWRA, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees, are refugees who were actually displaced from their homes and what number are descendant of those refugees.

Every year, a sum of $240 million of US public is channeled to the assistance of Palestinian refugees via UNRWA. The Kirk Amendment challenges the notion that being a Palestinian refugee can be passed down through the generations, and thereby questions the ever-expanding numbers of Palestinians that are UNRWA's target group. The original proposal by Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL), would have made personal displacement from one's home necessarily for the definition "refugee" as well as the absence of any other citizenship. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Wisconsin Reverberations

June 8th 2012

While many Democrats are stammering around looking for an excuse — any excuse at all — for their embarrassing defeat as Wisconsin roundly rejected their recall efforts of Republican Gov. Scott Walker, the Obama White House is breathing a sigh of relief.

Had Milwaukee’s Democrat Mayor Tom Barrett, the challenger to Walker, lost by a slim margin instead of by an even greater margin than his original loss to Walker in 2010, President Obama would be in a world of political hurt right now — from his own party. He needed Barrett to lose big. Obama cynically took care of himself first, throwing yet another ally under the bus by not campaigning for Barrett. Not only did he signal he was relatively certain Walker would win, but he showed Democrats that he has no loyalty to them and looks out for No. 1. Always. And, some might argue — only.

Adding to the discomfort is the fact that Barrett, a public figure whose résumé includes a decade in Congress, was a very, very early supporter of Obama in the presidential primary, publicly endorsing him in April 2007 over Democratic primary rivals Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. Yet, while former President Bill Clinton went to campaign by Barrett’s side last week (despite the fact that Barrett endorsed Obama over Hillary), Obama merely “tweeted” his support for Barrett, assuming 140 characters or fewer would somehow get him off the hook. Read more ..


The Arab Winter in Egypt

Egypt’s Presidential Election: Moderate Establishment vs. Totalitarian Revolutionaries

June 8th 2012

Morsi
Muhammad al-Mursi

Egypt’s fate, I think, will not be settled by the June 16-17 presidential election (second round). It has already been set by the parliamentary election which has given a large majority to the Islamists as well as the ability to write the constitution. If Ahmad Shafiq defeats the Brotherhood candidate, Muhammad al-Mursi, parliament will simply make a strong prime minister (appointed by the Muslim Brotherhood) and a weak president.

But, of course, a victory for Shafiq would be significant, indicating that a lot of those who voted for Islamists in the parliamentary voting — as many as one-third of them, about 25 percent of the total population — are not eager for a Sharia state. That could be added to another 25 percent (40 percent of them Christians) who are anti-Islamist. Shafiq, a former general and prime minister, is widely seen as a man of the old regime. Think of it this way. Suppose President Husni Mubarak had died or been disabled prior to 2011, or that the establishment had revolted and gotten rid of Mubarak on its own and chosen a successor. Shafiq might have become the new president and there would never have been a “revolution” in Tahrir Square. Read more ..

The Edge of Terrorism

Al-Qaeda Suffers Major Hit

June 7th 2012

Abu Yaha al-Libi

Abu Yahya al-Libi, al-Qaeda's second-in-command behind only Ayman al-Zawahri, was killed Monday by a targeted CIA drone strike in northern Pakistan, according to American officials. The fatal drone strike killed 15 Islamic militants along with al-Libi, who was responsible for al-Qaeda's propaganda, appearing in 39 videos and using his background as an Islamic cleric to justify the terrorist group's acts of jihad. Al-Libi had a 1 million dollar bounty on his head, and narrowly escaped death by drone strike more than once before meeting his end. The Taliban and the White House agree that al-Libi's death is a major defeat for al-Qaeda.

The deputy leader's demise, compounded by the death of Osama bin Laden and influential al-Qaeda imam Anwar al-Awlaki both last year, has left a void in al-Qaeda's ranks; the organization now lacks a member with the religious education or credibility with the Arab World necessary to justify al-Qaeda's jihadist actions -- crucial to the success of the terror group. Some sources have indicated that Ayman al-Zawahri is the only remaining noteworthy al-Qaeda leader. But, if he attempts to fill the propaganda void left by al-Libi, he will be forced to come out of hiding and possibly expose himself to the line of fire. Read more ..


Counting Palestinians

Showdown Brews Between Obama, Congress Over Accuracy of Count of Palestinian Arab Refugees

June 7th 2012

Palstinian refugee camp

A showdown is brewing in Washington over how the number of Palestinian Arab refugees is being counted, and it could be explosive. This is because numerical accuracy would undermine claims by the Palestinians that before long, if their demands are not granted, Jews will become a demographic minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. Arithmetical distortions by the Palestinian Arabs have mesmerized the United Nations, the State Department, NGOs whose identities derive from the Palestinian determination to be permanent victims, and Israeli politicians who eagerly incorporate Palestinian misinformation into their critique of Jewish settlements.

Upon completion of the first Palestinian census 15 years ago, the head of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics conceded that it was “a civil intifada,” a demographic weapon against Israel that specifically targeted Jewish settlers. Last December the Bureau fired its guns once again, reporting that 2.6 million Palestinian Arabs inhabit Judea and Samaria, the biblical homeland of the Jewish people where more than 300,000 Israelis now live. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Hillary for Vice President

June 6th 2012

Hillary

If President Obama makes the bold and historic decision to run with Hillary Clinton in 2012, an Obama-Clinton ticket would launch a rocket of enthusiasm throughout a rejuvenated and mobilized Democratic base. He would send a powerful message of reassurance and confidence to political independents, seniors, blue-collar workers and all women who deserve and should win equal pay for honest work after an Obama-Clinton campaign that would champion this cause throughout every corner of the nation.

An Obama-Clinton ticket would increase the president’s popular and electoral votes. It would increase voter turnout for Democrats and elect more Democrats to the House and Senate. An Obama-Clinton team would bring a powerful new momentum to Democratic fundraising. It would rally small donors to a campaign that would regain the spirit of a powerful cause for historic, continuing and lasting change. It would motivate the wealthiest Democratic donors, who are now being dominated by their competitors among power-hungry Republicans, super-wealthy special interests and far-right billionaires who would destroy the legacy of every enlightened president since Teddy Roosevelt. Read more ..


Broken Mideast Peace

The ICG Rethinking the "Peace Process"

June 6th 2012

Wailing Wall in Jerusalem

The International Crisis Group defines itself as an "independent, non-partisan, [sic] source of analysis ... on the prevention and resolution of deadly conflict."  While presidents and secretaries of state have relied it upon for analysis in places as disparate as Sudan, Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Burundi, it proves to be one-sided and ahistorical in its recent review of the Israel-Palestinian "peace process."  Noting that the world is currently preoccupied elsewhere, the ICG suggests that that might be a good thing:

Not to discard the two-state solution, for no other option can possibly attract mutual assent; nor to give up on negotiations, for no outcome will be imposed from outside. But to incorporate new issues and constituencies; rethink Palestinian strategy to alter the balance of power; and put in place a more effective international architecture. Read more ..


Iran’s Nukes

Tactics for Economic Warfare against Iran

June 6th 2012

Iran centrifuges

The world is aware of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and its sponsorship of terrorist organizations. What is less understood is Tehran’s abuse of the financial sector, banks, front companies, and other deceptive techniques to evade the controls responsible countries have instituted to stop it from achieving nuclearization. Yet it is precisely these techniques that make Iran vulnerable to economic warfare, and such warfare, if deployed intelligently and strategically, could hurt the regime where it is weakest—its pocketbook.

Securing Uranium Ore

Iran is scouring the earth in search of countries that possess uranium deposits, searching in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Iranian engineers have reportedly mapped out all of the world’s uranium deposits to assess countries most likely to sell them the coveted mineral. Iran has reportedly decided that Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Zimbabwe are the countries with uranium most likely to do business with it.

If Iran secures large quantities of uranium that can ultimately be converted into yellowcake, this would likely be the nail in the coffin in preventing Iran from achieving nuclearization. Policymakers around the world must be vigilant in tracking Iran’s efforts to secure uranium Read more ..


America's Leading Edge

How Dallas is Going Global

June 5th 2012

Dallas TX

Is Dallas a “global region?” It would sure seem that way. The region is the sixth largest metropolitan economy in the United States, and according to Brookings’ Global MetroMonitor, the 12th largest in the world. By virtue of size alone, Dallas appears to be a powerful force in the global marketplace.

Move beyond size, however, and the global status of the Dallas area seems to be in the eye of the beholder. Different observers have different definitions of what it means to be “global.” Various studies attempt to index the global-ness of major metropolitan areas on measures that combine the presence of major global corporations, human capital, cultural institutions, environment, quality of life, and economic growth. Not surprisingly, the Dallas metropolis comes out in different places on different indexes: 25th (Economist Intelligence Unit), 28th (Global Urban Competitiveness Report), 36th (Brookings’ Global MetroMonitor), as an “Alpha-minus” city (Globalization and World Cities Research Network), or not at all (A.T. Kearney Global Cities Index). Read more ..


The Battle For Syria

Syria: More Leading From Behind

June 5th 2012

Riot Gear Police

Kofi Annan was jointly-appointed by the UN and the Arab League this February as their
envoy to Syria.

The horrors currently unfolding in Syria offer further proof of what might reasonably be described as Kofi Annan’s law of international relations: Wherever Kofi Annan turns up, bloodshed is sure to follow. During and after his scandal-ridden decade as UN secretary-general, Annan smoothed the ruffled feathers of brutal dictators like Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Kim Jong Il in North Korea.

In October 1995, Annan remained at the UN’s peacekeeping helm as Serb forces seized control of the Srebrenica enclave in Bosnia, slaughtering the entire male population, including young boys. When he stepped down from the secretary-general’s post in 2006, he lambasted not Russia or China—the two states that did the most to prevent the UN’s lofty human rights principles from actually being implemented—but the United States, for allegedly “seeking supremacy over all others.”

Despite this shameful record, the UN and the Arab League jointly appointed Annan as their envoy to Syria in February of this year, as Bashar al Assad’s assault upon his own people grew in intensity. Sure enough, with Annan on the spot promoting a six-point peace plan that Assad assented to in public but violated on the ground, the “violence”—a lily-livered euphemism for the carnage orchestrated by the Damascus regime—got worse. Read more ..


Broken Healthcare

Healthcare Industry Still Seeks to Cash in from Privatizing Medicare

medicine and money

If you think the idea of privatizing Medicare has gone away, that the health insurance industry has thrown in the towel on one of its biggest goals, there was fresh evidence last week that you would be wrong.

As I wrote more than a year ago — when Rep. Paul Ryan (R.-Wis.) unveiled his plan to replace the Medicare system with one that would essentially be run by private insurers — Democrats would be foolish to think that Ryan couldn’t get the public to support the concept. I noted then that insurers would be investing heavily in efforts to convince people that Ryan’s plan represented the only way to save the Medicare program from insolvency.

One of the tried-and-true tactics insurers have used many times to influence public opinion is the enlistment of “third-party advocates” to disseminate industry talking points. Last week an industry friend in high places — Thomas Scully, who headed the Medicare program during much of the George W. Bush administration — weighed in on the matter. It is only a matter of time, Scully told Kaiser Health News, before politicians on both sides of the aisle endorse Ryan’s proposal of providing Medicare beneficiaries with a set amount of money every year to buy coverage from private insurers. Read more ..


Labor on Edge

Future of America’s Unions at Stake in Wisconsin’s Recall Vote

June 4th 2012

Unions

Ann Coulter on the right and Rachel Maddow on the left agree Wisconsin’s vote this Tuesday on recalling Gov. Scott Walker is going to have national implications. They’ve got that right.

If Walker wins, it will encourage Republican governors around the nation to enact more laws that diminish the power of public worker unions. Those efforts usually involve stripping unions of collective bargaining rights in an effort to shut off the money flowing from unions to Democrats.

Since the 2010 midterm elections, GOP governors have been intent on closing off the flow of cash from taxpayers to public sector unions which then support Democratic candidates.
In trying to choke the life out of unions, those governors have had varied degrees of success. But if Walker wins, governors like Michigan’s Rick Snyder, Ohio’s John Kasich and Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett will find new pockets of money and political support for their anti-union fight.

By the same logic, if the unions cannot defeat an unpopular GOP governor whose policies have threatened their power – and their very existence in one of the most pro-union states in the country - Republicans and Democrats alike will perceive them as weak. The state’s labor unions – including the AFL-CIO, AFSCME and the SEIU – could not get their favorite candidate, Kathleen Falk, nominated as the candidate to run against Walker. That was a loss among fellow Democrats. Meanwhile the unions are being outspent by Walker’s camp, which is playing with a bankroll of $30 million compared to his challenger’s $4 million. The Democratic Party and left-wing groups have not matched the financial punch from the right. Read more ..


Broken Economy

The Human Disaster of Unemployment

June 4th 2012

Click to select Image

The American economy is experiencing a crisis in long-term unemployment that has enormous human and economic costs. In 2007, before the Great Recession, people who were looking for work for more than six months—the definition of long-term unemployment—accounted for just 0.8 percent of the labor force. The recession has radically changed this picture. In 2010, the long-term unemployed accounted for 4.2 percent of the work force. That figure would be 50 percent higher if we added the people who gave up looking for work.

Long-term unemployment is experienced disproportionately by the young, the old, the less educated, and African-American and Latino workers. While older workers are less likely to be laid off than younger workers, they are about half as likely to be rehired. One result is that older workers have seen the largest proportionate increase in unemployment in this downturn. The number of unemployed people between ages 50 and 65 has more than doubled. Read more ..


Economy on Edge

May Jobs Report Has No Spring in Its Step

June 3rd 2012

Unemployed Claimants

Analysts expected a slow but steady employment report in May. The actual employment report was considerably worse than expected. Employers created only 69,000 net jobs, and the unemployment rate edged up to 8.2 percent. Revisions also showed that employers created 49,000 fewer jobs than originally estimated in March and April.

Coupled with the recent downward revision to GDP estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and rising unemployment insurance claims, this report suggests the labor market recovery is approaching stall speed. The European economy is also sliding into a deeper crisis.  Given all of this economic news, the U.S. economy cannot afford the massive tax hikes scheduled for the end of this year. Congress should act quickly to prevent massive tax increases—a genuine Taxmageddon—from further weakening the labor market. Read more ..


Israel on Edge

New York Parade is no Place for Lightning Rods

June 2nd 2012

BDS Marching Banner

On Sunday, June 3, 2012, those who live in the tri-state area will have the opportunity to publicly celebrate the State of Israel’s first 64 years as New York City hosts what has become a tradition over the last 48 years — the Salute to Israel Day Parade (sorry, I mean the Celebrate Israel Parade; more below on why the name change).

The parade is the largest gathering of Jews outside of Israel to celebrate the forming of the Jewish state. In the past, it was arranged by the Israel Tribute Committee with respect and dignity. This year, however, some of that respect and dignity may be diminished. Not only will school groups, Jewish organizations, synagogues of all stripes, Zionism-inspired artists and the like proudly proclaim their love for Israel, but this year’s parade will also see people marching who stand accused by some of actively working to undermine Israel. It matters little whether the accusation is true or not; this is a case in which perception counts more than reality. Read more ..


Broken Healthcare

Could Nonprofit Health Insurance Plans Be the Real Reformers?

June 1st 2012

medicine and money

 When members of Congress who led the effort to overhaul the U.S. health care system saw the public option slipping away, some of them suggested that a viable alternative would be the fostering of nonprofit health insurance CO-OPs (Consumer Oriented and Operated Plans) throughout the country.

I was among the many who belittled the idea. Having spent two decades in the health insurance industry, I knew how difficult it is for even the biggest insurers to establish a presence in markets where one or two other insurance firms dominate. And there are hardly any markets left where that is not the case.

The barriers to entry in any given market are so high that the only way insurers have been able to establish much of a foothold where the don’t already have a presence is to acquire one or more existing companies. Aetna became a big player in Philadelphia, for example, only after it bought U.S. Healthcare several years ago.

If you don’t have a sizable membership base, it is difficult to negotiate rates with doctors and hospitals that are as favorable as those that bigger insurers can get. If you have to pay providers more than your competitors, you will have to charge your customers higher premiums. It is almost impossible to grow your membership if you have to price your premiums higher than your competitors. It’s a chicken-and-egg thing and why we have seen such rapid consolidation in the insurance industry. And it’s why I was skeptical that start-up non-profit CO-OPs would have a snowball’s chance. Read more ..


The Arab Winter in Egypt

Christians Should "Convert, Pay Tribute, or Leave," Says Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood Candidate?

June 1st 2012

Morsi
Muhammad Morsi

According to the popular Egyptian website, El Bashayer, , the Muslim Brotherhood presidential candidate, just declared that he will "achieve the Islamic conquest (fath) of Egypt for the second time, and make all Christians convert to Islam, or else pay the jizya," the additional Islamic tax, or financial tribute, required of non-Muslims, or financial tribute.

In a brief report written by Samuel al-Ashay and published by El Bashayer on May 27, Morsi allegedly made these comments while speaking with a journalist at the headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, adding "We will not allow Ahmed Shafiq [his contending presidential candidate] or anyone else to impede our second Islamic conquest of Egypt."

After his interviewer pointed out that the first Muslim conquest of Egypt was "carried out at the hands of Amr bin al-As [in 641]," he asked Morsi, "Who will the second Islamic conqueror be?" Morsi, replied, "The second Muslim conqueror will be Muhammad Morsi," referring to himself, "and history will record it." Read more ..


Israel on Edge

‘Land for Peace’ (1967 – 2012)

May 31st 2012

Clinton Peace

Next week will mark the forty fifth anniversary of one of the greatest periods of drama in Israel’s history, the Six Day War. Mortal danger was overcome in a victorious routing of Israel’s enemies, however amid the jubilation, was born the bastard child of foreign interests and youthful Israeli naiveté, the ‘Land for Peace’ concept.

Just nine days following the termination of hostilities, the National Unity Government of Israel voted unanimously to return the Sinai to Egypt and the Golan Heights to Syria in return for peace agreements. Following Israel’s lead, the United Nations Security Council quickly drafted Resolution 242 broadening the ‘Land for Peace’ concept to include ‘territories occupied in the recent conflict’ which was adopted unanimously on November 22nd 1967.

From that moment on, this concept has served as the basis of most all diplomatic discussion pertaining to the cessation of hostilities in the region. Yet almost half a century later, while much land has been surrendered, there is still no peace. Recent developments in Egypt have placed the oft touted Begin-Sadat ‘Land for Peace’ success case study on very thin ice. Read more ..


Israel and Palestine

What Happened to “Close Settlement”?

May 31st 2012

Settlement

No Israeli policy is more incessantly vilified than settlement in Judea and Samaria, the biblical homeland of the Jewish people. Nonetheless, ninety years of international law sustains it.

In 1920 the League of Nations, building on Lord Balfour’s Declaration three years earlier, adopted a resolution at San Remo calling for “the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people.” The Mandate for Palestine, approved by the League Council two years later (and by the United States in 1924), assured “the establishment of the Jewish national home” there. The British Mandatory Administration, according to Article 6, “shall encourage . . . close settlement by Jews on the land.”

But where was “Palestine”? To placate the Hashemite sheikh Abdullah, Colonial Secretary Winston Churchill set aside the territory east of the Jordan River for the kingdom of Trans-Jordan. Reduced to one-quarter of its original size, Palestine now comprised only the land between the Jordan and the Mediterranean. There the right of close settlement by Jews remained protected under international law. Read more ..


The 2012 Vote

Karl Rove's Grand Slam

May 31st 2012

Karl Rove

It is far too early to predict the election returns for November. Forecasts today are subject to dramatic change based on events yet to happen, but:  If the election were held today I now believe Mitt Romney and the Republicans would win it because more of their voters would be motivated to vote and more of their large donors are motivated to donate. Romney would win the White House with a narrow victory. Democrats would gain House seats but fall short of regaining control. Even if Senate Democrats retain nominal control they would not be able to pass significant legislation without the permission of ever-filibustering Republicans. At least one of the liberal Supreme Court justices is likely to leave before the end of the next president's term, and if that president is Romney, the right could control the court for a generation.

I believe these outcomes would be a disaster for America. I will do what I can to oppose them in columns and in a 5,000-word e-book I am writing that will put the consequences of the election in brutally stark terms that I hope will energize supporters of the president and Democrats. But I believe today that the most likely outcome is a Romney victory, and warn the president and all Democrats of the grave consequences of the current enthusiasm gap among large donors and grassroots voters.

Which brings me to Karl Rove, who has inspired the wealthy donors of the ideological right, the Republican Party and many of the most corrupted and powerful special interests who will donate between $1 billion and $1.5 billion before the carnage of this campaign is fully done. The inability of Democrats to play in the same league as Karl Rove financially is a humiliating debacle that might be unprecedented, measured by comparing wealthy donors of one party to wealthy donors of the other, in the history of presidential politics. This parallels an enthusiasm gap of voters that creates what I believe is the current Republican edge in the election. Read more ..



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