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North Korea's Nukes

GPS Stations can Detect Clandestine Nuclear Weapons Tests

June 19th 2011

Korea Topics - North Korea nukes

At the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) meeting last week, American researchers are unveiling a new tool for detecting illegal nuclear explosions: the Earth’s global positioning system (GPS). Even underground nuclear tests leave their mark on the part of the upper atmosphere known as the ionosphere, the researchers discovered, when they examined GPS data recorded the same day as a North Korean nuclear test in 2009. Within minutes on that day, GPS stations in nearby countries registered a change in ionospheric electron density, as a bubble of disturbed particles spread out from the test site and across the planet.

“Its as if the shockwave from the underground explosion caused the earth to ‘punch up’ into the atmosphere, creating another shockwave that pushed the air away from ground zero,” said Ralph von Frese, professor of earth sciences at Ohio State University and senior author on the study. Read more ..

Iran's Nukes

In the Shadows: Iran's Enriched Uranium Production Continues to Increase

June 15th 2011

Iran - Ahmadinejad Nuclear

On May 24, 2011, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a further safeguards update. This update shows that Western efforts to impede Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program continue to be ineffective. Iran has increased its enriched uranium production rate to about 105 kilograms of 3.5 percent enriched uranium per month. This is a 17 percent increase since the last IAEA report in February 2011 and it occurred despite repeated press reports of cyber attacks in 2009 having slowed Iran’s enrichment efforts, Iran’s current production rate of 3.5 percent enriched uranium has actually increased 84 percent over Iran’s 2009 production rate. Iran is also maintaining a steady production rate of about 2.7 kilograms per month of 19.7 percent enriched uranium.

As of May 14, 2011, Iran had produced 2,775 kilograms of 3.5 percent enriched uranium (in the form of 4,105 kilograms of uranium hexafluoride). With this quantity of 3.5 percent enriched uranium, Iran could produce more than the 20 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU) needed for a nuclear weapon by batch recycling at the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz. With Iran’s current number of operating centrifuges, the batch recycling would take about two months once Iran decided to initiate the process. Read more ..

Edge of Terrorism

Ahmed Ressam Disclosed Valuable Details about al-Qaida—without Harsh Interrogation

June 13th 2011

Terrorism - Ahmed Ressam (cr Montreal PD)
Ahmed Ressam (credit: Montreal PD)

Osama bin Laden’s death has renewed the debate over harsh interrogation techniques, and defenders say rough treatment is the only way to get hard-core terrorists to talk. But in the months before 9/11, one high-profile terrorist was voluntarily divulging all he knew about his time with al-Qaida.

Ahmed Ressam—mastermind of the foiled LAX boming plot—was arguably the FBI’s most valuable informant when terrorists struck U.S. targets with deadly precision on Sept. 11, 2001. Trained at two al-Qaida camps in Afghanistan, Ressam became the leader of a plot to massacre holiday travelers at the Los Angeles International Airport at the end of 1999. The plot was foiled when alert Customs officers at a ferry checkpoint in Port Angeles, Wash., popped open Ressam’s trunk and discovered explosives.

By the time of the 9/11 attacks, Ressam had already spent months naming names and revealing details about al-Qaida’s recruiting, training and plotting. Intelligence from those sessions was included in the infamous presidential briefing on Aug. 6, 2001, titled, “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US.” The 9/11 Commission concluded that Ressam even had information that—recognized and acted on sooner—may have derailed the attacks. Read more ..

Edge on Terrorism

Latest Al-Qaeda Video May Be an Admission of Defeat

June 10th 2011

Terrorism - Zawahiri video capture

A new video from al Qaeda’s media arm, As-Sahab, became available on the Internet on June 2. The video was 100 minutes long, distributed in two parts and titled “Responsible Only for Yourself.” As the name suggests, this video was the al Qaeda core’s latest attempt to encourage grassroots jihadists to undertake lone-wolf operations in the West, a recurrent theme in jihadist messages since late 2009.

The video, which was well-produced and contained a number of graphics and special effects, features historical footage of a number of militant Islamist personalities, including Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abdullah Azzam and Abu Yahya al-Libi. Read more ..

Iran's Nukes

Taking Ahmadinejad's Nuclear Threats Seriously

June 6th 2011

Iran - Chavez and Ahmanijad

In the last several days, it has been reported that Iran is planning to place medium-range missiles in Venezuela. Such information seems to confirm last November's article published by the German daily Die Welt. The newspaper reported that an agreement was signed last October between the two countries—a fact that has remained mostly unknown to the public.

Indeed, Venezuela and Iran have mutual interests in doing this. Iran which has come under international sanctions initiated by the United States is constantly seeking ways to avoid them. But most importantly, Iran also seeks the ability to deter the U.S. Certainly, the missiles positioned on Venezuelan soil could become not just mere assistance to Venezuela but also a direct threat to the U.S. This is especially the case should the U.S or Israel take military action against Iran's nuclear facility or any other act perceived by the Iranians as hostile.

On the other hand, there is also a Venezuelan agenda that makes this type of action a perfect match between the two countries.

Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez has aggressively tried to influence the different countries of the region and pretends to be the regional leader that will put an end to American influence in the region. He has systematically allied himself with U.S enemies as is the case with Iran and has taken hostile, mostly indirect, action against U.S friends such as Colombia. Colombia is an obsession in Chavez's eyes. Read more ..

The Drug Wars

A Billion Dollars for Anti-narco Programs—and No Central Tracking

June 5th 2011

Mexican Topics - Mexico marijuana seizure

The Department of State, which received more $1 billion for international counter-narcotics programs last year, doesn’t have a central database to track its anti-drug programs.

Most of State’s $1 billion supports programs in Mexico, Afghanistan, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia. The Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) is responsible for programs that ran the gamut from eradication of illegal crops, drug interdiction and reducing drug demand.

Instead of a centralized inventory of contracts, State separates its contract data between information from the Narcotics Affairs Sections at overseas posts and the government-wide Federal Procurement Data System. The INL has begun the process of developing its own database of counter-narcotics contracts. Read more ..

Border War

Lessons to Be Learned from Armed Assaults on the Violent Roads of Mexico

June 4th 2011

Mexican Topics - Dead Zetas in Nayarit Mexico

On the afternoon of May 27, a convoy transporting a large number of heavily armed gunmen was ambushed on Mexican Highway 15 near Ruiz, Nayarit state, on Mexico’s Pacific coast. When authorities responded they found 28 dead gunmen and another four wounded, one of whom would later die, bringing the death toll to 29. This is a significant number of dead for one incident, even in Mexico.

According to Nayarit state Attorney General Oscar Herrera Lopez, the gunmen ambushed were members of Los Zetas, a Mexican drug cartel. Herrera noted that most of the victims were from Mexico’s Gulf coast, but there were also some Guatemalans mixed into the group, including one of the wounded survivors. While Los Zetas are predominately based on the Gulf coast, they have been working to provide armed support to allied groups, such as the Cartel Pacifico Sur (CPS), a faction of the former Beltran Leyva Organization that is currently battling the Sinaloa Federation and other cartels for control of the lucrative smuggling routes along the Pacific coast. In much the same way, Sinaloa is working with the Gulf cartel to go after Los Zetas in Mexico’s northeast while protecting and expanding its home turf. If the victims in the Ruiz ambush were Zetas, then the Sinaloa Federation was likely the organization that planned and executed this very successful ambush. Read more ..

Edge on Latin America

Return of Zelaya to Tegucigalpa Augurs Honduras' Return to the OAS

May 31st 2011

Latin American Topics - Zelaya returns to Honduras

On May 22nd, Honduran President Porfirio Lobo and former President Manuel Zelaya signed an accord in Cartagena, Colombia providing a path for Zelaya’s return to Honduras from exile, as well as the readmission of Honduras to the Organization of American States (OAS). A May 2nd ruling by the Honduran Supreme Court annulled the criminal charges against Zelaya, thus permitting him to safely return to his country. His main advisor, Rasel Tomé, announced that Zelaya is likely to arrive on the weekend of May 28th. Zelaya’s return to Honduras is the principal requirement for Honduras’ readmission to the OAS. Accordingly, OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza has announced that Honduras has already met the necessary conditions for its reentry into the organization. Read more ..

After bin Laden

The Bin Laden Operation: Tapping Human Intelligence

May 30th 2011

Terrorism - Osama bin-Laden preaching

Since May 2, when U.S. special operations forces crossed the Afghan-Pakistani border and killed Osama bin Laden, international media have covered the raid from virtually every angle. The United States and Pakistan have also squared off over the U.S. violation of Pakistan’s sovereign territory and Pakistan’s possible complicity in hiding the al Qaeda leader. All this surface-level discussion, however, largely ignores almost 10 years of intelligence development in the hunt for bin Laden.

While the cross-border nighttime raid deep into Pakistan was a daring and daunting operation, the work to find the target—one person out of 180 million in a country full of insurgent groups and a population hostile to American activities on its soil—was a far greater challenge. For the other side, the challenge of hiding the world’s most wanted man from the world’s most funded intelligence apparatus created a clandestine shell game that probably involved current or former Pakistani intelligence officers as well as competing intelligence services. The details of this struggle will likely remain classified for decades. Read more ..

Iraq After the US

Iraq: A Province of Iran?

May 18th 2011

Iran - Iran Iraq Syria

After American forces leave Iraq at the end of 2011, Tehran will try to turn its neighbor into a satrapy, i.e., a satellite state, to the great detriment of Western, moderate Arab, and Israeli interests.

Intense Iranian efforts are already underway, with Tehran sponsoring militias in Iraq and sending its own forces into Iraqi border areas. Baghdad responds with weakness, with its chief of staff proposing a regional pact with Iran and top politicians ordering attacks on the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MeK), an Iranian dissident organization with 3,400 members resident in Camp Ashraf, 60 miles northeast of Baghdad. The MeK issue reveals Iraqi subservience to Iran with special clarity. Note some recent developments: Read more ..

Europe on Edge

Visegrad: Europe's New Military Force

May 18th 2011

Europe Topics - Four heads of Visegrad

With the Palestinians demonstrating and the International Monetary Fund in turmoil, it would seem odd to focus this week on something called the Visegrad Group. But this is not a frivolous choice. What the Visegrad Group decided to do last week will likely resonate for years, long after the alleged attempted rape by Dominique Strauss-Kahn is forgotten and long before the Israeli-Palestinian issue is resolved. The obscurity of the decision to most people outside the region should not be allowed to obscure its importance.

The region is Europe — more precisely, the states that had been dominated by the Soviet Union. The Visegrad Group, or V4, consists of four countries — Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary — and is named after two 14th century meetings held in Visegrad Castle in present-day Hungary of leaders of the medieval kingdoms of Poland, Hungary and Bohemia. Read more ..

After bin Laden

A More Efficient Way To Reveal Osama and al Qaeda’s Secrets

May 18th 2011

Terrorism - Osama bin Laden in mufti
The Late Osama bin Laden

Talking on the CBS show “60 Minutes,” President Obama noted: “It’s going to take some time for us to exploit the intelligence that we were able to gather on site” during the raid in which Osama bin Laden was killed. This information, according to Mr. Obama, gives the U.S. a chance “to…really deliver a fatal blow [to Al Qaeda], if we follow through aggressively in the months to come.”

The United States intelligence agencies reliance on labor-intensive, time-consuming and inefficient methods to decipher the captured electronic devices and paper documents. The delay has allowed al Qaeda operatives and many of its budding affiliates to relocate, change their identity and communication methods, diminishing the U.S. ability to act upon the intelligence contain in the trove, The window of opportunity to destroy the organization and its global metastasizes, has significantly shrunk. Read more ..

Edge on Terrorism

An American Double-Standard for Terrorists

May 18th 2011

Cuba Topics - Orlando Bosch Avila
Orlando Bosch

The recent deaths of two terrorists – one famous, one not so much – provides an illuminating examination of how America continues to conduct its controversial war on terror. Making headlines across the United States and called a defining moment in Barack Obama’s presidency, the dramatic raid into Pakistan to kill Osama Bin Laden is one side of the equation. The quiet passing of Orlando Bosch in Miami that elicited scant attention outside the confines of the South Florida community, is the other.

While it would be hard to find an American who hasn’t heard of Bin Laden, the converse is true of Bosch, unless you happen to live in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood. This despite Bosch’s much more protracted career of violence, stretching back to the early 1960s. His terrorism, however, was directed at the Cuban people who have, for the most part, supported the regime that came to power following the Revolution in 1959 and that has been designated an official enemy of the United States. Bosch’s actions were rarely, if ever, recognized as terrorism in the mainstream media, which generally kept silent when it came to describing the consequences of his use of violent methods to oppose the Castro regime.

Born in 1926 in a small town East of Havana, Bosch is most infamously linked as one of the masterminds of the bombing of Cubana Airlines Flight 455 on October 6, 1976, killing all 73 on board. It remains the second worst act of air terrorism in the Americas. The first is Bin Laden’s orchestrated destruction on September 11. Read more ..

Edge of Terrorism

Al-Qaeda's Source of Funding from Drugs and Extortion Little Affected by bin Laden's Death

May 9th 2011

Terrorism - WTC on Fire (credit: Macten)

Al Qaeda Inc. might suffer some initial setbacks from Osama bin Laden's death, but so did Apple Inc. when shares dropped over rumors of Steve Jobs' illness. But it did not take long to realize that Jobs has established a highly functional corporation, and the shares bounced back.

The same can be expected for al Qaeda Inc. The jihadist organization has changed since its establishment in Afghanistan in 1988 by bin Laden and Palestinian sheikh Abdallah Yusuf Azzam. Al Qaeda Central has developed several branches and inspired many other radical Islamic organizations, each with its own independent resources. Read more ..

The Edge of Terrorism

John Kerry Suspects Pakistan in bin Laden Hideout

May 9th 2011

Politics - John Kerry

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) said Sunday that he still had his suspicions about just how much the government of Pakistan knew about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden before the terrorist leader was killed by U.S. troops.

Kerry, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that while he doubted that high-ranking political or military leaders in Pakistan knew about bin Laden's location before last Sunday's U.S. assault against his compound in Abbottabad, he also found it hard to believe that no one knew about it.

"I think it's very, very hard to believe that at some level there wasn't somebody or some group in Pakistan who wasn't aware of this," Kerry said on CBS's "Face the Nation."

National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said Sunday that the Obama administration had no evidence that the government of Pakistan knew of bin Laden's whereabouts. Pakistan's ambassador to the U.S. similarly denied any such intelligence on Sunday. Read more ..

Edge of Terrorism

Pentagon’s Failure to Share Biometric Data Prevents DHS, FBI from Identifying Terrorists

May 9th 2011

Military - Soldier with biometric device and Arab

The Department of Homeland Security, the FBI, and the Pentagon all rely on biometric data—face, fingerprint, iris, palm and fingerprint records—to identify criminals, terrorists and national security threats. But the Pentagon’s failure to adopt uniform standards for information sharing means that data on criminals and terrorists could fail to reach agencies that could prevent them from getting into the United States.

Biometric systems are used by the military in both Iraq and Afghanistan to screen non-U.S. people to protect U.S. soldiers. In 2007, DOD said it would begin sharing its unclassified biometric information with departments that have counter-terrorism missions. To do so, DOD adopted standards for its biometric data collection to facilitate information sharing with other agencies. Read more ..

Edge of Terrorism

The Impact of the Death of Osama bin Laden on Global Jihadism

May 3rd 2011

Terrorism - Osama bin Laden in mufti

U.S. President Barack Obama appeared in a hastily arranged televised address the night of May 1, 2011, to inform the world that U.S. counterterrorism forces had located and killed Osama bin Laden. The operation, which reportedly happened in the early hours of May 2 local time, targeted a compound in Abbottabad, a city located some 31 miles north of Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital. The nighttime raid resulted in a brief firefight that left bin Laden and several others dead.

A U.S. helicopter reportedly was damaged in the raid and later destroyed by U.S. forces. Obama reported that no U.S. personnel were lost in the operation. After a brief search of the compound, the U.S. forces left with bin Laden’s body and presumably anything else that appeared to have intelligence value. From Obama’s carefully scripted speech, it would appear that the U.S. conducted the operation unilaterally with no Pakistani assistance — or even knowledge. Read more ..

Russia on Edge

Abduction of Prominent Russian's Son Illustrates Failings of Intelligence Tools

May 2nd 2011

Russian Topics - Ivan Kapersky
Ivan Kapersky

On April 24, officers from the anti-kidnapping unit of Moscow’s Criminal Investigation Department and the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) rescued 20-year-old Ivan Kaspersky from a dacha in Sergiev Posad, a small town about 40 miles northeast of Moscow. Kaspersky, the son of Russian computer software services billionaire Eugene Kaspersky (founder of Kaspersky Lab), was kidnapped on April 19 as he was walking to work from his Moscow apartment. A fourth-year computer student at Moscow State University, Kaspersky was working as an intern at a software company located near Moscow’s Strogino metro station.

Following the abduction, Kaspersky was reportedly forced to call his father and relay his captors’ demands for a ransom of 3 million euros ($4.4 million). After receiving the ransom call, the elder Kaspersky turned to Russian law enforcement for assistance. On April 21, news of the abduction hit the Russian and international press, placing pressure on the kidnappers and potentially placing Kaspersky’s life in jeopardy. In order to defuse the situation, disinformation was leaked to the press that a ransom had been paid, that Kaspersky had been released unharmed and that the family did not want the authorities involved. Read more ..

Battle for Libya

War in Libya That Drags on Favors Muammar Qadhafi

April 25th 2011

Libya Topics - Muammar Qaddafi

Despite appearances, the current state of the Libyan civil war is not a stalemate. Muammar Qaddafi's forces have adapted somewhat to NATO's control of the air and have continued offensive operations. And although rebel forces in the east are slowly improving their organizational, communications, and combat capabilities, they are far from being able to gain and hold ground against even depleted regime forces. NATO operations have been sufficient to prevent the opposition's defeat, degrading Qaddafi's ability to command and sustain his forces or employ heavy weapons against rebels and civilians. But allied forces have not broken the regime's willingness or ability to continue the fight, and NATO is reluctant to take the military steps needed to turn the tide rapidly.

Both the rebels and NATO will suffer a major setback if the western stronghold of Misurata succumbs to regime attacks. Yet, unless the West acts with more determination and assumes more operational risk, the city will likely fall, perhaps soon.

Two-Front War

Two clear theaters of war have emerged in Libya: an eastern front that has essentially stabilized near Ajdabiya, and a western theater with several compartments. In the east, the pattern of advance and retreat by both sides has now settled into indecisive skirmishing around Ajdabiya, with neither side able to obtain a clear advantage. Regime units are at the end of a long supply line, NATO continues to strike at their heavy weapons and logistical support, and their resort to light forces, while complicating NATO targeting, has not enabled them to advance further against solidifying resistance backed by critical NATO support. For their part, rebel forces still lack the ability to plan and conduct serious offensives and are hard pressed to hold the ground they have gained, even with foreign assistance.

The Battle for Yemen

Islamist Militancy: Before and After the Fall of Saleh

April 25th 2011

Yemen Topics - Yemen Crisis

Nearly three months have passed since the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, first saw mass demonstrations against Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, but an exit from the current stalemate is still nowhere in sight. Saleh retains enough support to continue dictating the terms of his eventual political departure to an emboldened yet frustrated opposition. At the same time, the writ of his authority beyond the capital is dwindling, which is increasing the level of chaos and allowing various rebel groups to collect arms, recruit fighters and operate under dangerously few constraints.

The prospect of Saleh’s political struggle providing a boon to Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is understandably producing anxiety in Washington, where U.S. officials have spent the past few months trying to envision what a post-Saleh Yemen would mean for U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the Arabian Peninsula. Read more ..

Border War

How to Perceive the Bomb Threat South of the Border

April 18th 2011

Mexican Topics - Juarez car bomb

On April 5, Mexican newspaper El Universal reported that a row of concrete Jersey barriers was being emplaced in front of the U.S. Consulate General in Monterrey, Mexico. The story indicated that the wall was put in to block visibility of the facility, but being only about 107 centimeters (42 inches) high, such barriers do little to block visibility. Instead, this modular concrete wall is clearly being used to block one lane of traffic in front of the consulate in an effort to provide the facility with some additional standoff distance from the avenue that passes in front of it.

Due to the location and design of the current consulate building in Monterrey, there is only a narrow sidewalk separating the building’s front wall from the street and very little distance between the front wall and the building. This lack of standoff has been long noted, and it was an important factor in the decision to build a new consulate in Monterrey (construction began in June 2010 and is scheduled to be completed in January 2013). Read more ..

Palestinian Terror

Will "Iron Dome" Negate the Need for Israeli Military Operations Against Hamas in Gaza?

April 18th 2011

Terrorism - Iron Dome
The Iron Dome Missile Defense System

Will the Iron Dome Missile Defense System negates the need for Israel to engage in military operations against Hamas in Gaza?

The escalation in rocket barrages from terrorists in Gaza against southern Israel in 2011 has forced the Israeli government to rush deployment of the "Iron Dome" missile defense system to protect its citizens who live within rocket range. In the beginning of April, two Iron Dome batteries were placed outside of Beersheva and Ashkelon and immediately proved their value by intercepting several GRAD rockets aimed at civilian areas in Israel. Read more ..

The Weapon's Edge

Pentagon Probing Nuclear-capable F-35 Delays

April 11th 2011

Military - F-35b

The Defense Department is examining how long a variant of the F-35 fighter that is nuclear-capable will be delayed, military officials told lawmakers this week. The Pentagon has launched a “technical baseline review” to determine how an expected two-year delay for the entire program will impact the delivery schedule, according to Air Force Maj. Gen. William Chambers, assistant chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration.

That study “will give us a new time line” for how far behind schedule the broader schedule slip will place the nuclear F-35, Chambers told the Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces subcommittee this week. To bridge the gap to the date when the nuclear-armed F-35s arrive in the service’s fleet, officials plan to keep more of existing F-15 and F-16 fighters flying longer than initially planned, Chambers said. Read more ..

The Metal's Edge

Pentagon Balks on Report about Rare Earths Reliance on China

April 11th 2011

China Topics - China rare earth mine

Rare earth metals, a variety of elements that are difficult and costly to extract, are vital for technology and the military. Tiny amounts of the metals and their alloys are used in a plethora of everyday devices, like cell phones, computer memory, and fluorescent lighting. But they are also vital components in many weapon systems, laser devices, and telescopes.

The United States used to be the top producer in the rare earth industry, but it is now almost entirely dependent on Chinese exports, which have been increasingly reduced. Read more ..

The Battle for Yemen

Regime Change in Yemen Signals Emboldened Al-Qaeda Presence in the Arabian Peninsula

April 11th 2011

Arab Topics - Yemeni protester

While the world’s attention is focused on the combat transpiring in Libya and the events in Egypt and Bahrain, Yemen has also descended into crisis. The country is deeply split over its support for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and this profound divide has also extended to the most powerful institutions in the country — the military and the tribes — with some factions calling for Saleh to relinquish power and others supporting him. The tense standoff in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa has served to divert attention (and security forces) from other parts of the country.

On March 28, an explosion at a munitions factory in southern Yemen killed at least 110 people. The factory, which reportedly produced AK rifles and ammunition, was located in the town of Jaar in Abyan province. Read more ..

The Battle for Libya

The Uncertain Aftermath of Waging a Humanitarian War in Libya

April 8th 2011

Africa Topics - Dead African mercenaries in Libya
Teenaged Gadhafi supporters killed by rebels

There are wars in pursuit of interest. In these wars, nations pursue economic or strategic ends to protect the nation or expand its power. There are also wars of ideology, designed to spread some idea of “the good,” whether this good is religious or secular. The two obviously can be intertwined, such that a war designed to spread an ideology also strengthens the interests of the nation spreading the ideology.

Since World War II, a new class of war has emerged that we might call humanitarian wars — wars in which the combatants claim to be fighting neither for their national interest nor to impose any ideology, but rather to prevent inordinate human suffering. In Kosovo and now in Libya, this has been defined as stopping a government from committing mass murder. But it is not confined to that. In the 1990s, the U.S. intervention in Somalia was intended to alleviate a famine while the invasion of Haiti was designed to remove a corrupt and oppressive regime causing grievous suffering. Read more ..

Edge of Terrorism

Al-Qaeda Operatives Recruit Members and Plan Attacks in Brazil

April 6th 2011

Latin American Topics - Mosque in Brazil
Brazilian mosque

According to Brazil's Veja news magazine, members of the Islamic terrorist groups Al Qaeda, Hezbollah and Hamas are operating in Brazil, where they hide, raise money, recruit new members and plan attacks. The April 3 report alleged that at least 20 high-ranking members of the three groups operate in the region where the borders of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina converge, the weekly magazine said, citing Brazilian Federal Police and U.S. government reports.

Brazil has long rejected U.S. charges that the triple border region harbors terrorists, but has acknowledged that Brazil’s large Muslim community sends a significant amount of remittances to the Middle East. Khaled Hussein Ali, a 41-year-old Lebanese Muslim who has a Brazilian-born daughter, who has lived legally in Sao Paulo since 1998, has coordinated Al Qaeda’s operations in 17 countries from Brazil, Veja said. Read more ..

Border war

Texas Republican: Put Mexican Cartels on Foreign Terrorist List

April 4th 2011

Mexican Topics - Mexican Drug Police2

Six Mexican drug cartels would be labeled as terrorist groups under legislation introduced Thursday by a Texas Republican. Rep. Michael McCaul’s bill would add the six cartels to the Foreign Terrorist Organization list, which also includes al Qaeda, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Shining Path and the Real IRA. McCaul said his legislation is necessary because violence on the Mexican border is increasing even as the U.S. is focused on foreign wars. “The last time I visited the El Paso Intelligence Center and requested to go across the border to Juarez, the State Department told me they could not guarantee my safety,” the lawmaker said at a hearing Thursday on border violence. Read more ..

The Battle for Libya

Kucinich, Paul, McKeon Join Legislation on Paying for Libya Operations

April 4th 2011

Libya Topics - Muammar Qaddafi

A liberal House member, a conservative budget hawk and the GOP House Armed Services Committee chairman have joined an effort to force the Obama administration to use funds from non-Defense accounts to finance the Libyan intervention.

Liberal stalwart Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), small-government advocate Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and HASC Chairman Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon (R-Calif.) have signed onto a bill offered last week by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) seeking a list of offsets to pay for the military campaign.

Kucinich is intensely anti-war; McKeon and Bartlett have raised concerns about U.S. military involvement in Libya. Both Republicans told The Hill last week they would not have used American combat forces to prevent forces loyal to embattled Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi from crushing opposition forces and targeting civilians. 

The measure would require President Obama to give Congress a list of offsets from non-security discretionary programs for fiscal year 2011, according to a summary of the provided by Bartlett’s office. If approved, the bill would move the freed-up monies to the Defense Department to replace the amounts spent in Libya in fiscal year 2011," according to the summary.    Read more ..

Battle for Libya

America Deploys its Million-dollar Weapon in Libya more than 161 Times

March 28th 2011

Military - USS Reagan Firing Tomahawk

In the opening days of the assault on Libya, the United States and the United Kingdom launched a barrage of at least 161 Tomahawk cruise missiles to flatten Moammar Gadhafi’s air defenses and pave the way for coalition aircraft.

In fiscal terms, at a time when Congress is fighting over every dollar, the cruise missile show of military might was an expenditure of nearly a quarter of a billion dollars. Each missile cost $1.41 million.

Raytheon Corp. is the manufacturer of the Tomahawk Block IV, a low-flying missile that travels at 550 miles per hour. During a decade of war in Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Libya, the Pentagon has increasingly relied on the Tomahawk. A year ago, Raytheon boasted of its 2,000th Block IV delivery to the Navy. Read more ..

The Battle for Libya

Libya’s Terrorism Option

March 28th 2011

Libya Topics - Muammar Qaddafi

On March 19, military forces from the United States, France and Great Britain began to enforce U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973, which called for the establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya and authorized the countries involved in enforcing the zone to “take all necessary measures” to protect civilians and “civilian-populated areas under threat of attack.” Obviously, such military operations cannot be imposed against the will of a hostile nation without first removing the country’s ability to interfere with the no-fly zone—and removing this ability to resist requires strikes against military command-and-control centers, surface-to-air missile installations and military airfields. This means that the no-fly zone not only was a defensive measure to protect the rebels—it also required an attack upon the government of Libya.

Certainly, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has no doubt that the U.S. and European military operations against the Libyan military targets are attacks against his regime. He has specifically warned France and the United Kingdom that they would come to regret the intervention. Now, such threats could be construed to mean that should Gadhafi survive, he will seek to cut off the countries’ access to Libyan energy resources in the future. However, given Libya’s past use of terrorist strikes to lash out when attacked by Western powers, Gadhafi’s threats certainly raise the possibility that, desperate and hurting, he will once again return to terrorism as a means to seek retribution for the attacks against his regime. While threats of sanctions and retaliation have tempered Gadhafi’s use of terrorism in recent years, his fear may evaporate if he comes to believe he has nothing to lose. Read more ..

DHS on Edge

DHS Officials to Testify on “Freedom of Information” Process

March 28th 2011

Politics - Giant Paper Stack

The Republican chairman of the powerful House Oversight and Government Reform Committee will get his first crack this week at publicly grilling Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials about the agency’s FOIA process.

Rep. Darrell Issa (Calif.) has doggedly sought to find out whether DHS allows political appointees to play a role in prioritizing or censoring information it is required to release under the agency’s Freedom of information Act (FOIA) guidelines.

When Issa took over control of the committee in January, his first major request for documents was for DHS to turn over thousands of copies of records and emails between agency officials. But Issa was not satisfied with DHS’s response, and last month he subpoenaed two of the department’s career employees, forcing them to give transcribed interviews before the committee.

DHS officials have repeatedly stated their willingness to cooperate with his requests and point to the thousands of documents the department has turned over to the committee so far and the more than 20 staff members—15 lawyers and at least six others—who are dedicated to fulfilling his requests. But Issa’s office has said that a whistleblower from within the agency has come forward with information that contradicts what DHS officials and documents are telling him. Read more ..

The Battle for Yemen

Yemen Crisis Escalates to Near Civil War

March 23rd 2011

Yemen Topics - Yemen Crisis

A crisis in Yemen is rapidly escalating. A standoff centered on the presidential palace is taking place between security forces in the capital city of Sanaa while embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh continues to resist stepping down, claiming that the “majority of Yemeni people” support him. While a Western-led military intervention in Libya is dominating the headlines, the crisis in Yemen and its implications for Persian Gulf stability is of greater strategic consequence. Saudi Arabia is already facing the threat of an Iranian destabilization campaign in eastern Arabia and has deployed forces to Bahrain in an effort to prevent Shiite unrest from spreading. With a second front now threatening the Saudi underbelly, the situation in Yemen is becoming one that the Saudis can no longer leave on the backburner.

The turning point in Yemen occurred March 18 after Friday prayers, when tens of thousands of protesters in the streets calling for Saleh’s ouster came under a heavy crackdown that reportedly left some 46 people dead and hundreds wounded. It is unclear whether the shootings were ordered by Saleh himself, orchestrated by a member of the Yemeni defense establishment to facilitate Saleh’s political exit or simply provoked by tensions in the streets, but it does not really matter. Scores of defections from the ruling party, the prominent Hashid tribe in the north and military old guard followed the March 18 events, both putting Saleh at risk of being removed in a coup and putting the already deeply fractious country at risk of a civil war. Read more ..

The Battle for Yemen

Yemen Crisis Heading to Boiling Point

March 21st 2011

Arab Topics - Yemeni protester

A crisis in Yemen is rapidly escalating. A standoff centered on the presidential palace is taking place between security forces in the capital city of Sanaa while embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh continues to resist stepping down, claiming that the “majority of Yemeni people” support him. While a Western-led military intervention in Libya is dominating the headlines, the crisis in Yemen and its implications for Persian Gulf stability is of greater strategic consequence. Saudi Arabia is already facing the threat of an Iranian destabilization campaign in eastern Arabia and has deployed forces to Bahrain in an effort to prevent Shiite unrest from spreading. With a second front now threatening the Saudi underbelly, the situation in Yemen is becoming one that the Saudis can no longer leave on the backburner. Read more ..

Edge on Security

GAO Confirms TSA Screening of Air Cargo Can’t be Verified

March 21st 2011

Terrorism - EWR Suspicious Package Response

The Transportation Security Administration reported last August that it met its mandate to screen 100 percent of air cargo. But the Government Accountability Office says TSA cannot verify the accuracy of the data it used, according to a recent report.

Airline industry representatives report screening data to the TSA, but the government has no way to verify the accuracy of the data. TSA cannot cross-reference its local screening logs, which have information on specific shipments, with the reports submitted by air carriers to TSA. Read more ..

The Battle for Libya

The Beginning of Obama's War on Libya

March 21st 2011

Obama Admin Topics - Obama and Gadhafi

The Libyan war has now begun. It pits a coalition of European powers plus the United States, a handful of Arab states and rebels in Libya against the Libyan government. The long-term goal, unspoken but well understood, is regime change — displacing the government of Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi and replacing it with a new regime built around the rebels.

The mission is clearer than the strategy, and that strategy can’t be figured out from the first moves. The strategy might be the imposition of a no-fly zone, the imposition of a no-fly zone and attacks against Libya’s command-and-control centers, or these two plus direct ground attacks on Gadhafi’s forces. These could also be combined with an invasion and occupation of Libya. Read more ..

The Battle for Libya

Libyan No-Fly Zone Could Cost $300 Million Each Week

March 14th 2011

Military - F-15E Refuels

Establishing and taking control of the skies over Libya could cost the Pentagon up to $300 million a week – or around $15 billion a year – under mission scenarios formulated by a top Washington defense think tank.

Lawmakers have pressed the White House to consider a no-fly zone, but Pentagon officials have been mum about specific options under consideration.

As such, the report from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments shines a light on the Pentagon’s thinking.

While several lawmakers have suggested it would not be difficult to set up the no-fly zone, the report suggests it would be expensive and complicated. Read more ..

The Battle for Libya

Will Libya Again Become the Arsenal of Terrorism?

March 14th 2011

Terrorism - Hamas Terrorists

During the 1970s and 1980s, Libya served as the arsenal of terrorism. While this role may have received the most publicity when large shipments of weapons were intercepted that Libya was trying to send to the Provincial Irish Republican Army, Libyan involvement in arming terrorist groups was far more widespread. Traces conducted on the weapons used in terrorist attacks by groups such as the Abu Nidal Organization frequently showed that the weapons had come from Libya. In fact, there were specific lot numbers of Soviet-manufactured F1 hand grenades that became widely known in the counterterrorism community as signature items tied to Libyan support of terrorist groups. Read more ..

The Battle for Bahrain

Persian Gulf Oil Kingdoms Pour Billions into Beseiged Oman and Bahrain

March 7th 2011

Arab Topics - Saudi Prince in Meeting

The oil-rich Arab states of the Persian Gulf may soon inject huge sums of aid money into Oman and Bahrain to quiet the unrest that has erupted in both countries recently. Reports of the likely funding -- which includes more than $10 billion for Bahrain alone, a nation of some 900,000 citizens -- come one week after Saudi Arabia announced a $36 billion subsidy package for its own people. Such fiscal generosity suggests that these governments are unwilling to make political concessions as they cope with the winds of change sweeping the Arab world. Read more ..

Rethinking War Strategy

Never Fight a Land War in Asia

March 7th 2011

Asia Topics - Landwar in Asia

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, speaking at West Point, said last week that “Any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should have his head examined.” In saying this, Gates was repeating a dictum laid down by Douglas MacArthur after the Korean War, who urged the United States to avoid land wars in Asia. Given that the United States has fought four major land wars in Asia since World War II — Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq — none of which had ideal outcomes, it is useful to ask three questions: First, why is fighting a land war in Asia a bad idea? Second, why does the United States seem compelled to fight these wars? And third, what is the alternative that protects U.S. interests in Asia without large-scale military land wars? Read more ..

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