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Edge of Terrorism

Separating the Terror from Terrorism

January 3rd 2011

Terrorism - Arab terrorist

On December 15, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent a joint bulletin to state and local law enforcement agencies expressing their concern that terrorists may attack a large public gathering in a major U.S. metropolitan area during the 2010 holiday season. That concern was echoed by sources at the FBI and elsewhere who were almost certain there was going to be a terrorist attack launched against the United States over Christmas.

Certainly, attacks during the December holiday season are not unusual. There is a history of such attacks, from the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 on December 21, 1988, and the thwarted millennium attacks in December 1999 and January 2000 to the post-9/11 airliner attacks by shoe bomber Richard Reid on December 22, 2001, and by underwear bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab on December 25, 2009. Some of these plots have even stemmed from the grassroots. In December 2006, Derrick Shareef was arrested while planning an attack he hoped to launch against an Illinois shopping mall on December 22. Read more ..


Iran’s Nukes

Potential Iranian Responses to NATO’s Missile Defense Shield

December 27th 2010

Iran - Iran Long-Range Missile

The new “Strategic Concept” that NATO is expected to adopt at its Lisbon summit this weekend offers the advantage of an early initial capability to defend Europe against the emerging Iranian ballistic missile threat, even though—in deference to Turkish sensibilities—NATO is not expected to identify Iran as the source of the threat. For now, the Islamic Republic is unable to reach targets in Eastern Europe, but that could change as early as 2012 if Tehran decides to commence production of the medium-range Sajjil-2 missile. And because the NATO concept hinges first on the deployment of ship-based missile systems to the eastern Mediterranean, followed later by the deployment of land-based interceptors, it entails certain vulnerabilities that Iran could exploit in the near term. Read more ..


Afghanistan on Edge

Afghan Government Disbands Dozens of Private Security Firms

December 21st 2010

Afghan Topics - Afghan weapons

The government of Afghanistan has announced its determination to shut down all private security companies operating in the country. Kabul has already disbanded 57 of them.

An Interior Ministry official overseeing the campaign, General Abdul Manan Farahi, said the targeted companies, are all Afghan, and include unregistered and illegal firms that have broken domestic laws. He said more than 3,000 individuals have seen their weapons confiscated.

Farahi said companies protecting aid and development projects and diplomatic missions would be able to continue operating but only within the premises they are guarding. He also said the headquarters of remaining companies have been moved outside the capital, Kabul. Read more ..


The Political Edge

For Obama, START is “Personal”

December 21st 2010

Russian Topics - Russian ICBMs

President Obama is making a final push to secure the votes for an arms treaty that stands not just as a political goal but a highly personal one.

The president needs nine Republican votes to win the two-thirds Senate majority to ratify the New START treat with Russia, and Obama has continued to call Republican senators to bring them on board, according to the White House.

Obama seems near another victory in what has been a surprisingly productive lame-duck session. Every Senate Democrat is expected to support ratification, and several Republican senators, most recently Scott Brown (R-Mass.), have said they will vote to approve the treaty. Read more ..


Edge on Terrorism

Islamist Terrorists Resort to Using Children to Trigger Deadly Bombs in Afghanistan

December 13th 2010

Terrorism - Child Suicide Bomber

Taliban terrorists used a two-year-old girl as the trigger for an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan, killing the child and five Afghan police officers. Afghan National Police officers near Kandahar stopped their vehicle to comfort the child who they saw sobbing by the side of the road. The Islamist insurgents had ordered the toddler not to move, in order to lure the hapless officers who were being trained by British troops at the Helmand police training center in Lashkar Gah.

The incident happened in mid-2010, according to Afghan police in training. One of the officers, and eyewitness, said “Bad people did this. They are enemies of humanity, enemies of Islam and enemies of the Koran.” This fresh horror came to light when civilian police of Britain’s Ministry of Defense observed with shock that not one of their Afghan trainees went to calm a child during a practical training session on dealing with missing children. Read more ..


Web Warfare

China Takes Steps Against “Hacktivst” Groups Even While it Steps Up Hacking of US Government Websites

December 13th 2010

Computer Topics - Shadowy Computer User

A recent batch of WikiLeaks cables led Der Spiegel and The New York Times to print front-page stories on China’s cyber-espionage capabilities on December 4 and 5. While China’s offensive capabilities on the Internet are widely recognized, the country is discovering the other edge of the sword.

China is no doubt facing a paradox as it tries to manipulate and confront the growing capabilities of Internet users. Recent arrests of Chinese hackers and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) pronouncements suggest that China fears that its own computer experts, nationalist hackers and social media could turn against the government. While the exact cause of Beijing’s new focus on network security is unclear, it comes at a time when other countries are developing their own defenses against cyber attacks and hot topics like Stuxnet and WikiLeaks are generating new concerns about Internet security. Read more ..


Iran's Nukes

Assassination of Nuclear Scientist Strikes at the Heart of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

December 6th 2010

Iran - Ahmadinejad pointing

On the morning of November 29, two Iranian scientists involved in Iran’s nuclear development program were attacked. One was killed, and the other was injured. According to Iranian media, the deceased, Dr. Majid Shahriari, was heading the team responsible for developing the technology to design a nuclear reactor core, and Time magazine referred to him as the highest-ranking non-appointed individual working on the project. Official reports indicate that Shahriari was killed when assailants on motorcycles attached a “sticky bomb” to his vehicle and detonated it seconds later. However, the Time magazine report says that an explosive device concealed inside the car detonated and killed him. Shahriari’s driver and wife, both of whom were in the car at the time, were injured. Read more ..


North Korea on the Edge

North Korean Belligerence Could be Part of Leadership Succession

November 29th 2010

Korea Topics - Kim Jong Un
Kim Jong Un

The most frequently heard question in the wake of a North Korean attack on a South Korean island is “why?” Those who have devoted their careers to studying North Korea, one of the world’s most opaque nations, say it is difficult to get a clear answer. One theory ties the artillery attack last week to efforts to establish the son of leader Kim Jong Il as his successor.

Late November’s shelling of a community on a South Korean island was not the first time North Korea has lashed out at its neighbor since the Korean War in the 1950s. And, a number of experts on North Korea say, it will not be the last. Indeed, several say South Korea and the United States, which has 25,000 troops in the country, may have to contend with additional military actions by North Korea in the months and years ahead. Read more ..


Korea Peninsula on Edge

A Maze of Questions Follows North Korea's Unprovoked Attacks on the South

November 23rd 2010

Asia Topics - Lee Myung-bak of South Korea
S. Korean President Lee Myung-bak 

North Korea and South Korea exchanged artillery fire near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), their disputed western border in the Yellow Sea/West Sea on November 23. The incident damaged as many as 100 homes and thus far has killed two South Korean soldiers with several others, including some civilians, wounded. The South Korean government convened an emergency Cabinet meeting soon after the incident and called for the prevention of escalation. It later warned of “stern retaliation” if North Korea launches additional attacks. Pyongyang responded by threatening to launch additional strikes, and accused South Korea and the United States of planning to invade North Korea, in reference to the joint Hoguk military exercises currently under way in different locations across South Korea. The incident raises several questions, not the least of which is whether Pyongyang is attempting to move the real “red line” for conventional weapons engagements, just as it has managed to move the limit of “acceptable” behavior regarding its nuclear program. Read more ..


Edge of Terrorism

Al-Qaida Boldly Claims It Will Strike the US Again—On the Cheap

November 22nd 2010

Arab Topics - UPS Yemeni soldiers
Yemeni soldiers guard UPS headquarters in Sa’na

The Al-Qaida terrorist organization promises to conduct attacks on a small-scale, similar to its recent attempts on two cargo planes bound for the United States. In those cases, explosive devices were sent via international mail in small packages. One of these was addressed to a Chicago-area synagogue. The November 20 on-line edition of the organization’s English-language online magazine, Inspire, likened this tactic to bleeding an enemy with a thousand small cuts. Noting that the “Operation Hemorrhage” mentioned above cost only $4,200, the Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen vowed, “To bring down America we do not need to strike big.” Read more ..


Edge of Terrorism

Tracking the Pakistani Origins of Naxalite Maoist Terror in India

November 22nd 2010

India Topics - Indian Naxalite Maoist

Indian Maoist militants, known as Naxalites, have been meeting with members of the outlawed Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), according to the director-general of police for India’s Chhattisgarh state. Based on information from a police source, state police chief Vishwa Ranjan said Nov. 11 that two LeT operatives attended a Naxalite meeting in April or May. While their presence at the meeting still needs to be corroborated, the chief said, it appears very likely that the Naxalites held the meeting to adopt a new policy and plans for increasing “armed resistance” in order to seize political power in India.

Indian authorities are using the alleged meeting between LeT operatives and Naxalites as evidence that Pakistan is trying to forge relationships with the Naxalites, which India has long suspected. India blamed the LeT for the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2001 parliament attack. Read more ..


The Edge of Terrorism

Concern Grows over Influence of Islamic Terrorist Movements in Central Asia

November 15th 2010

Terrorism - Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan

Tajikistan’s military continues to conduct security sweeps in the Rasht Valley in the eastern part of the country to catch roughly two dozen high-profile Islamist militants who escaped from a Dushanbe prison in August. The chairman of Tajikistan’s State National Security Committee announced November 9 that these special operations have been successful and would soon be completed. However, the Tajik military has announced it will retain its presence there, and the Defense Ministry is setting up special training centers from which to base operations into the mountainous region surrounding the Rasht Valley.

These security sweeps began just over two months ago, and there are conflicting accounts of how successful they have been in rounding up the militants. Tajik military and government spokesmen have said that most of the escapees have been either captured or killed and that roughly 80 Tajik soldiers have been killed hunting them down. However, Tajik media have given higher estimates of the number of military casualties, and sources in Central Asia have said the number of deaths and injuries in various firefights might actually be closer to a few hundred. The region’s remoteness and the sensitive nature of the security operations have made such reports difficult to verify. Read more ..


The Edge on Terrorism

Al-Qaeda Strikes Out this Time but Remains a Threat

November 8th 2010

Terrorism - Dubai mail bomb

The October 29 discovery of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) inside two packages shipped from Yemen launched a widespread search for other devices, and more than two dozen suspect packages have been tracked down so far. Some have been trailed in dramatic fashion, as when two U.S. F-15 fighter aircraft escorted an Emirates Air passenger jet Oct. 29 as it approached and landed at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. To date, however, no other parcels have been found to contain explosive devices. Read more ..


The Edge of Terror

The Ashburn Jihadist Signals a Greater Danger

November 8th 2010

Terrorism - Farooque Ahmed (Ashburn Jihadi)
Farooque Ahmed Credit: US Department of Justice

The FBI’s arrest of Farooque Ahmed of Ashburn, Va., for allegedly assisting al Qaeda in planning multiple bombings around the nation’s capital paints a sobering picture of the threat we still face from jihadists.

The FBI charged the 34-year-old computer engineer, husband, father of one, and naturalized U.S. citizen with “providing material support to terrorists and collecting information for a terrorist attack.” Emphasizing the gravity of the case, U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia Neil H. MacBride remarked that Mr. Ahmed was “accused of casing rail stations with the goal of killing as many Metro riders as possible through simultaneous bomb attacks.”

Throughout the summer and fall, U.S. authorities witnessed a significant rise in jihadist activity, using increasingly sophisticated operational strategies. According to open-source reports, between 2001 and 2008, U.S. agencies stopped one or two terror attempts a year. However, from 2009 until today, the government has been uncovering one or two cases a month, a troubling growth in jihadi activities. Read more ..


Syria's Nukes

The World Awaits a Special Inspection of Syria for Nuclear Weapons

November 8th 2010

Energy Topics - Syria nuke site
Satellite view of suspected Syria nuke site

A key option for inspectors of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the world body charged with stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, is a "special inspection" an intrusive visit made when the IAEA judges the information provided by a state to be inadequate. But The IAEA is reluctant to use such inspections, even though, in the case of Syria, circumstances cry out for one. This reluctance challenges the authority and credibility of the agency, its board of governors (made up of the representatives of thirty-five of its member states), and the ultimate guardian of the world nuclear order, the United Nations Security Council. Read more ..


Media on Edge

WikiLeaks and the Wacky World of Classified Information

November 1st 2010

Media - Wikileaks founder
Julian Assange of WikiLeaks

On October 22, the organization known as WikiLeaks published a cache of 391,832 classified documents on its website. The documents are mostly field reports filed by U.S. military forces in Iraq from January 2004 to December 2009 (the months of May 2004 and March 2009 are missing). The bulk of the documents (379,565, or about 97 percent) were classified at the secret level, with 204 classified at the lower confidential level. The remaining 12,062 documents were either unclassified or bore no classification. Read more ..


Mexico's Border Wars

Falcon Lake Incident shows that Innocents are in the Crosshairs of Crossborder Narco-War

October 27th 2010

Mexican Topics - Falcon Lake memorial
Tiffany Hartley at memorial for David Hartley

Reliable sources in Mexico have provided information that the Sept. 30 shooting death of U.S. citizen David Hartley on Falcon Lake — which straddles the U.S.-Mexico border — was a mistake committed by a low-level member of the Los Zetas drug trafficking organization. Those responsible for Hartley’s death are believed to have disposed of his body and that the Zeta hierarchy was conducting a damage-control operation to punish those responsible for the death and to distance the cartel from the murder. Read more ..


The Edge of Terror

Hezbollah-Iran-Syria: An Islamic Alliance in Flux

October 18th 2010

Iran - Ahmadinejad and Assad3
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Bashar al-Assad

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Beirut on October 13 for his first official visit to Lebanon since becoming president in 2005. He is reportedly returning to the country after a stint there in the 1980s as a young Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officer tasked with training Hezbollah in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. A great deal of controversy is surrounding his return.

Rumors are spreading of Sunni militants attempting to mar the visit by provoking Iran’s allies in Hezbollah into a fight (already the car of a pro-Hezbollah imam who has been defending Ahmadinejad has been blown up), while elaborate security preparations are being made for Ahmadinejad to visit Lebanon’s heavily militarized border with Israel. Read more ..


War on Terror

Pakistan Goes Rogue and Worries Europe and America

October 11th 2010

Obama Admin Topics - Leon Panetta Pensativo
CIA Director Leon Panetta

Something brewing in Europe has spooked counterterrorism officials. On Oct. 3, the State Department issued a rare warning to Americans, urging them to show vigilance during their trips. Over the last week, European counterterrorism officials have escalated their precautions: The Eiffel Tower has been cleared twice in the last three weeks because of bomb alerts, and special anti-terrorism forces have been active on French streets. The threat, which covers France, Britain, and Germany, is reportedly of a “Mumbai-style” attack by al Qaeda.

In November 2008, terrorists wreaked havoc on the Indian port city by launching coordinated attacks against hotels, restaurants, and tourist sites, killing 166 people. Could the same sort of horror be in store for Paris, Berlin, or London? Read more ..


The Edge of Terrorism

Common-Sense Security Measures for a World Beset by Terrorism

October 11th 2010

Terrorism - Eiffel Tower trooper

The recent warnings by the U.S. government of possible terrorist attacks in Europe illustrate the fact that jihadist terrorism is a threat the world will have to live with for the foreseeable future. Certainly, every effort should be made to disrupt terrorist groups and independent cells, or lone wolves, and to prevent attacks. In practical terms, however, it is impossible to destroy the phenomenon of terrorism. At this very moment, jihadists in various parts of the world are seeking ways to carry out attacks against targets in the United States and Europe and, inevitably, some of these plots will succeed. All too often, governments raise the alert level regarding a potential terrorist attack without giving the public any actionable intelligence, which leaves people without any sense of what to do about the threat. Read more ..


The Edge of Terrorism

Europe May be Overdue for Jihadi Terrorist Attacks

October 4th 2010

Terrorism - Paratroopers at Eiffel

The Eiffel Tower was evacuated Sept. 28 after an anonymous bomb threat against the symbolic Parisian tourist attraction was phoned in; no explosive device was found. The day before the Eiffel Tower threat, French authorities closed the Gare Saint-Lazare in central Paris after an abandoned package, later determined innocuous, was spotted in the train station.

These two incidents serve as the latest reminders of the current apprehension in France that a terrorist attack is imminent. This concern was expressed in a very public way Sept. 11, when Bernard Squarcini, the head of France’s Central Directorate of Interior Intelligence (known by its French acronym, DCRI), told French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche that the risk of an attack in France has never been higher. Never is a long time, and France has long faced terrorist threats, making this statement quite remarkable.

Squarcini has noted in recent interviews that the combination of France’s history as a colonial power, its military involvement in Afghanistan and the impending French ban on veils that cover the full face and body (niqabs and burqas) combined to influence this threat environment. Read more ..


Turkey on Edge

Iran Bankrolls Creeping Islamization of Turkey's Secular Constitution

September 27th 2010

Turkish Topics - Tayyip Erdogan
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan at AKP rally

Iran has agreed to donate $25 million (£16 million) to Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in a move that will increase fears that Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is preparing to abandon the country's secular constitution through a referendum. The government of Turkey promptly denied that it had received any money from the Islamic government of Iran, while Turkish and foreign observers express concern over Erdogan’s growing power in Turkey and his success in intimidating the once-powerful Turkish military. Read more ..


Edge on Terror

Attacks in Tajikistan Signal Growing Islamist Menace in Central Asia

September 27th 2010

Terrorism - Uzbek/Tajik jihadis

Militants in Tajikistan’s Rasht Valley ambushed a military convoy of 75 Tajik troops on September 19, killing 25 military personnel according to official reports and 40 according to the militants, who attacked from higher ground with small arms, automatic weapons and grenades. The Tajik troops were part of a nationwide deployment of security forces seeking to recapture 25 individuals linked to the United Tajik Opposition militant groups that had escaped from prison in Dushanbe on Aug. 24. The daring prison break was conducted by members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and saw five security guards killed and the country put on red alert. According to the Tajik government, after the escape, most of the militants fled to the Rasht Valley, an area under the influence of Islamist militants that is hard to reach for Tajikistan’s security forces and thus rarely patrolled by troops. Read more ..


Edge on Terror

Homeland Security Wakes Up to Home Grown Terrorist Threat

September 20th 2010

Terrorism - Arab terrorist
New Mexico-born terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki

The head of the Department of Homeland Security stressed on September 17 that a growing number of homegrown terrorist plots are the most concerning threat to national security.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano emphasized that large terrorist plots like the al-Qaeda attack on Sept. 11, 2001, are still a serious danger to the U.S. But the growing number of individual and local terrorists, often inspired by the umbrella hardline groups, are more troubling and harder to thwart, she said. Read more ..


Iran’s Nukes

Combating Exports to Iran—The Role of ICE Homeland Security Investigations

September 13th 2010

Iran - Iran Long-Range Missile

Immigration and Customs Enforcement is the principal criminal investigative arm of DHS. Its Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) arm is the only federal law enforcement entity with full statutory authority to pursue violations of U.S. export laws related to military items, controlled dual-use commodities, and sanctioned or embargoed countries. In fiscal year 2009, HSI initiated 1,313 criminal investigations of possible illegal exports; made 708 criminal arrests, 218 of which were for sensitive commodities and technologies; secured 194 indictments; and obtained 190 convictions. The majority of these cases focused on stemming the flow of key U.S. technology to Iran. Read more ..


The Afghanistan War

Afghanistan at the Crossroads--Increased Militancy and the U.S. Drawdown in Iraq

September 6th 2010

Military - US Troops in Afghanistan

The drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq has served to shift attention toward Afghanistan, where the United States has been increasing its troop strength in hopes of forming conditions conducive to a political settlement. This is similar to the way it used the 2007 surge in Iraq to help reach a negotiated settlement with the Sunni insurgents that eventually set the stage for withdrawal there. As we’ve discussed elsewhere, the Taliban at this point do not feel the pressure required for them to capitulate or negotiate and therefore continue to follow their strategy of surviving and waiting for the coalition forces to depart so that they can again make a move to assume control over Afghanistan. Read more ..


Hostage Taking

A Botched Hostage Rescue in The Philippines Causes International Fracas

August 30th 2010

Asia Topics - Philippines hostage situation

On Aug. 23, Rolando Mendoza, a former senior police inspector with the Manila police department, boarded a tourist bus in downtown Manila and took control of the vehicle, holding the 25 occupants (tourists from Hong Kong and their Philippine guides) hostage. Mendoza, who was dressed in his police inspector’s uniform, was armed with an M16-type rifle and at least one handgun.

According to the police, Mendoza had been discharged from the department after being charged with extortion. Mendoza claimed the charges were fabricated and had fought a protracted administrative and legal battle in his effort to be reinstated.

Apparently, Mendoza’s frustration over this process led to his plan to take the hostages. The fact that Mendoza entertained hope of regaining his police job by breaking the law and taking hostages speaks volumes about his mental state at the time of the incident. Read more ..


Inside the Middle East

Lebanon's Mixed Record Calls for a Reassessment of U.S. Military Assistance

August 30th 2010

Terrorism - Hezbollah Lebanon

Since 2005, Washington has obligated more than $700 million in military assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces. In the aftermath of the LAF's August 3 cross-border shooting of two Israeli officers, one fatal, this funding has come under increasing scrutiny. Not coincidentally, the shooting followed a series of setbacks for Washington's allies in Beirut, which in turn fundamentally altered the conditions that had spurred the 2005 spike in U.S. funding.

It is unclear how this new dynamic is affecting the military, but many infer from the shooting that the LAF is shifting away from neutrality and toward Hezbollah. More broadly, the incident has resurrected questions as to whether Washington's main policy objective for the LAF -- establishing state sovereignty throughout Lebanese territory -- is ultimately achievable. Read more ..


The Iraq Withdrawal

U.S. Has Limited Options Following Iraq Withdrawal

August 23rd 2010

Military - US troops in Iraq

It is August 2010, which is the month when the last U.S. combat troops are scheduled to leave Iraq. It is therefore time to take stock of the situation in Iraq, which has changed places with Afghanistan as the forgotten war. This is all the more important since 50,000 troops will remain in Iraq, and while they may not be considered combat troops, a great deal of combat power remains embedded with them. So we are far from the end of the war in Iraq. The question is whether the departure of the last combat units is a significant milestone and, if it is, what it signifies.

The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 with three goals: The first was the destruction of the Iraqi army, the second was the destruction of the Baathist regime and the third was the replacement of that regime with a stable, pro-American government in Baghdad. The first two goals were achieved within weeks. Seven years later, however, Iraq still does not yet have a stable government, let alone a pro-American government. The lack of that government is what puts the current strategy in jeopardy. Read more ..


Edge on Terrorism

Internal Struggles Bedevil Islamist Terrorists of Caucasus Emirate

August 23rd 2010

Terrorism - Caucasian Muslim rebels
Doku Umarov and Caucasus Emirate militants

On August 12, four members of the militant group the Caucasus Emirate (CE) appeared in a video posted on a Russian militant website withdrawing their support from CE founder and leader Doku Umarov. The reason for the mutiny was Umarov’s August 4 retraction of his August 1 announcement that he was stepping down from the top leadership position. STRATFOR and many others noted at the time that the Aug. 1 resignation was unexpected and suggested that Umarov may have been killed. However, the August 4 retraction revealed that Umarov was still alive and that there was considerable confusion over who was in control of the militant group. Read more ..


Iran's Nukes

Major U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal to Bolster Riyadh Against Iran

August 16th 2010

Military - F15 in Afghanistan

When Congress returns from its summer recess after Labor Day, the Department of Defense will provide informal notification of the U.S. intention to sell up to $30 billion in military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The likely deal is part of a U.S. commitment predating the Obama administration to strengthen regional allies in the face of a growing threat from Iran. For the Saudis, the transaction represents a clear return to considering the United States as its principal arms supplier, a position the Americans risked losing to France as recently as 2006.

Background

The roughly $60 billion price tag for the U.S.-Saudi deal was reported by Bloomberg. Jane's Defence Weekly, which used a figure of $30 billion, noted that life-cycle maintenance and upgrades could eventually double the amount. Read more ..


Mexico's Drug War

Mexico's Drug Cartels up the Ante in Desperation

August 9th 2010

Mexican Topics - Mexican Drug Violence

On Aug. 3, the U.S. Consulate in Juarez, Mexico, reopened after being closed for four days. On July 29, the consulate had announced in a warden message that it would be closed July 30 and would remain closed until a review of the consulate’s security posture could be completed.

The closure appears to be linked to a message found on July 15, signed by La Linea, the enforcement arm of the Juarez cartel. This message was discovered at the scene shortly after a small improvised explosive device (IED) in a car was used in a well-coordinated ambush against federal police agents in Juarez, killing two agents. In the message, La Linea claimed credit for the attack and demanded that the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and FBI investigate and remove the head of Chihuahua State Police Intelligence (CIPOL), who the message said is working with the Sinaloa Federation and its leader, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera. The message threatened that if the intelligence official was not removed by July 30, La Linea would deploy a car bomb with 100 kilograms of high explosives in Juarez. Read more ..


Middle East on the Edge

Brushfire or Spark? Incident on the Israel–Lebanon Border

August 9th 2010

Lebanon Topics - The Blue Line

On August 3, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers opened fire on an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) unit removing a tree near the border security fence. In the resulting fighting, a senior IDF officer, two Lebanese soldiers, and a Lebanese journalist were killed, making the clash the most intense military engagement in the north since the 2006 war between Israel and Hizballah.

The spike in border tension coincides with increased concerns about Lebanon’s potential return to sectarian violence. Spurred by reports that the tribunal investigating the 2005 murder of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri will soon indict Hizballah officials, these concerns prompted an unprecedented joint visit to Beirut last week by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah and Syrian president Bashar al-Asad. Saad Hariri—Rafiq’s son and current prime minister—praised the visit for bringing “considerable stability to the country.”

Despite this optimistic pronouncement, with the border heating up and murder indictments pending, tensions remain high. Also in the background is Iran—Hizballah’s main supporter, Syria’s ally, and Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. Read more ..


The Edge of Domestic Terrorism

Terrorism by Animal Liberation Front Continues

August 2nd 2010

Crime Topics - Animal Rights fire
Arson by animal activists

On July 22, special agents of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and the FBI arrested Walter Bond in Denver and charged him with conducting the April 30 arson that destroyed a Glendale, Colo., business, the Sheepskin Factory, which sold a variety of sheepskin products. According to an affidavit completed by a special agent assigned to the Denver ATF field office, Bond used the nom de guerre, “ALF Lone Wolf” and boasted to a confidential informant that he not only torched the Sheepskin Factory but also was responsible for a June 5 fire at a leather factory in Salt Lake City and a July 3 fire at a restaurant in Sandy, Utah.

The Bond case serves as a reminder that activists with organizations such as the Animal Liberation Front (ALF) are still very active — indeed, there have been several firebombing attacks by such activists in the United States this year, not only at businesses but also at the homes of animal researchers. And there have been scores of animal rights-related attacks in other countries, with Mexico being among the most active. The Bond case also provides an opportunity to examine the manner in which the animal liberation movement conducts its leaderless resistance campaign, to draw lessons from the case and to assess the trajectory of the animal rights movement. Read more ..


Edge on Narco-trafficking

The Caribbean is the Fragile Third Border of Drug Trafficking

July 26th 2010

Caribbean - Jamaican shootout victims

In May 2009, a state of emergency was declared in Kingston, Jamaica, raising concerns over drug trafficking and other criminal activities in the Caribbean. The conflict arose following Jamaican Prime Minister Bruce Golding’s decision to hand over the island’s top drug lord, Christopher “Dudus” Coke, in deference to Washington’s extradition request. The U.S. State Department had labeled him as one of the world’s most dangerous criminals and has been calling for his capture for over a year. In recent years Coke’s “Shower Posse” cartel had expanded its narcotic and firearm network as far as Brooklyn, N.Y. and even to parts of Canada. Following years of history, his widespread influence in the trade geographically and socially has made a deepening impact in Jamaica, as well as other areas such as the U.S., Canada and neighboring Caribbean islands. Read more ..


Iran on the Edge

A History of Tension between Iran's Clerics and the State

July 26th 2010

Iran - Iranian clerics and sailors

On June 13, 2010, when Mehdi Karrobi, the reformist candidate in Iran’s 2009 presidential elections, paid a personal visit to the home of Ayatollah Yousef Sanei in the Shiite holy city of Qom, dozens of militants also descended on Sanei’s residence to disrupt the get-together. The militants were members of the Imam Sadeq Brigade 83, a paramilitary unit consisting of young radical clerics that is under the direct command of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These days, the brigade functions as one of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s main instruments of suppression against clerics and others that oppose the regime. In the early morning hours after ransacking Sanei’s office, the brigade stormed adjoining offices that belonged to the late Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, causing a great deal of property damage. These were but the latest actions undertaken by the theocratic regime against Ayatollahs Sanei and Montazeri—both religious leaders that supported protesters and the antigovernment demonstrations that swept Iran in the wake of the country’s disputed presidential elections in 2009. Indeed, only several days before the raid on Montazeri’s offices, it was reported that Khamenei traveled to Qom with plans to visit the Shrine of Masoumeh (the sister of the eighth imam recognized as legitimate by Shiites). Ayatollah Montazeri was buried at the same shrine, but the regime ensured that his tombstone was removed on the day of Khamenei’s arrival. Read more ..


The Bear is Back

Deciphering the Russia Spy Fracas

July 19th 2010

Russian Topics - Anna Chapman
Anna Chapman

The United States has captured a group of Russian spies and exchanged them for four individuals held by the Russians on espionage charges. The way the media has reported on the issue falls into three categories:
* That the Cold War is back
* That, given that the Cold War is over, the point of such outmoded intelligence operations is questionable,
* And that the Russian spy ring was spending its time aimlessly nosing around in think tanks and open meetings in an archaic and incompetent effort.

It is said that the world is global and interdependent. This makes it vital for a given nation to know three things about all of the nations with which it interacts.

First, it needs to know what other nations are capable of doing. Whether militarily, economically or politically, knowing what other nations are capable of narrows down those nations’ possible actions, eliminating fantasies and rhetoric from the spectrum of possible moves. Second, the nation needs to know what other nations intend to do. This is important in the short run, especially when intentions and capabilities match up. And third, the nation needs to know what will happen in other nations that those nations’ governments didn’t anticipate.

The more powerful a nation is, the more important it is to understand what it is doing. The United States is the most powerful country in the world. It therefore follows that it is one of the prime focuses of every country in the world. Knowing what the United States will do, and shifting policy based on that, can save countries from difficulties and even disaster. This need is not confined, of course, to the United States. Each country in the world has a list of nations that it is interdependent with, and it keeps an eye on those nations. Read more ..


The Edge of Terrorism

A Closer Look at India’s Naxalite Threat

July 12th 2010

Terrorism - Naxalites in India

On July 6, the Indian government issued a warning to railroad operators and users after Maoist rebels—known as Naxalites—declared a “bandh,” a Hindi word meaning stoppage of work, in eastern India. When a bandh is declared by the Naxalites, it carries with it an implied threat of violence to enforce the work stoppage, in this case against the public transportation system over a two-day period. It is widely understood that trains and buses in eastern India during this time would be subject to Naxalite attack.

Naxalites are an array of armed bands that, when combined, comprise the militant arm of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M). Some of the most violent attacks conducted by the Naxalites have been against freight and police transport trains, killing dozens of people at a time. Civilians have typically not been targeted in such attacks, but they have been collaterally killed and injured in the mayhem. Whether targeted or not, civilians generally believe that Naxalites always follow through on their threats, so strike warnings are enough to dissuade people from going about their daily lives. The Naxalite “bandh” is a tactic that shows just how powerful the rebels have become in the region, and it demonstrates their ability to affect day-to-day activity merely by threatening to stage an attack. Read more ..


Edge of Terrorism

Al Shabaab Threats Against the United States

July 12th 2010

Terrorism - Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab

On the afternoon of Sunday, May 30, an Aeromexico flight from Paris to Mexico City was forced to land in Montreal after authorities discovered that a man who was on the U.S. no-fly list was aboard. The aircraft was denied permission to enter U.S. airspace, and the aircraft was diverted to Trudeau International Airport in Montreal. The man, a Somali named Abdirahman Ali Gaall, was removed from the plane and arrested by Canadian authorities on an outstanding U.S. warrant. After a search of all the remaining passengers and their baggage, the flight was allowed to continue to its original destination.

Gaall reportedly has U.S. resident-alien status and is apparently married to an American or Canadian woman. Media reports also suggest that he is connected with the Somali jihadist group al Shabaab. Gaall was reportedly deported from Canada to the United States on June 1, and we are unsure of the precise charges brought against him by the U.S. government, but more information should be forthcoming once he has his detention hearing. From the facts at hand, however, it appears likely that he has been charged for his connection with al Shabaab, perhaps with a crime such as material support to a designated terrorist organization. Read more ..


The Bear is Back

The Dismantling of a Suspected Russian Intelligence Operation

July 5th 2010

Russian Topics - Kremlin

The U.S. Department of Justice announced June 28 that an FBI counterintelligence investigation had resulted in the arrest on June 27 of 10 individuals suspected of acting as undeclared agents of a foreign country, in this case, Russia. Eight of the individuals were also accused of money laundering. On June 28, five of the defendants appeared before a federal magistrate in U.S. District Court in Manhattan while three others went before a federal magistrate in Alexandria, Va., and two more went before a U.S. magistrate in Boston. An 11th person named in the criminal complaint was arrested in Cyprus on June 29, posted bail and is currently at large.

The number of arrested suspects in this case makes this counterintelligence investigation one of the biggest in U.S. history. According to the criminal complaint, the FBI had been investigating some of these people for as long as 10 years, recording conversations in their homes, intercepting radio and electronic messages and conducting surveillance on them in and out of the United States. The case suggests that the classic tactics of intelligence gathering and counterintelligence are still being used by Russia and the United States. Read more ..



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